Почти $5 млрд в опционах на биткоин и Ethereum истекают перед речью Пауэлла в Джексон-Хоул

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2025-03-21Last updated on 2025-08-22

Криптрынки готовятся волатильности: с одной стороны ежегодная встреча глав Центробанков в Джексон-Хоуле, с другой — истечение опционов на биткоин и Ethereum на сумму почти $5 млрд

Макроэкономическая неопределенность, связанная с возможной траекторией денежно-крединой политикой США усиливается еженедельным перепозиционированием на рынке опцинов. Это может спровоцировать масштабные движения биткоина (BTC) и Ethereum (ETH).

Анализ истекающих опционов на BTC и ETH

По данным Deribit, открытый интерес по опционам на биткоин составляет 33,855 контрактов, что соответствует номинальной стоимости $3,82 млрд. Точка максимальной боли по этим контрактам находится на уровне $118,000, а соотношение пут и колл составляет 1,05.

Истекающие опционы на биткоин. Источник: Deribit

Сегодня также истекает срок действия 220 630 опционных контрактов на Ethereum номинальной стоимостью на $943 млн. Точка максимальной боли ETH-опционов — $4 250, а соотношение пут и колл — 0,83.

Истекающие опционы на Ethereum. Источник: Deribit

В торговле опционами точка максимальной боли означает уровень цены, при которой держатели криптовалют понесут наибольшие убытки. Соотношение пут и колл оценивает, какие настроения преобладают среди инвесторов. Показатель ниже 1 говорит о том, что участники рынка настроены пессимистично и ставят на падение цен.

Согласно теории о максимальных болевых точках в торговле опционами, криптовалюты часто стремятся к своим страйк-ценам, при которых наибольшее количество контрактов (как коллов, так и путов) истекает без исполнения. По данным CoinMarketCap, на момент написания BTC торгуется на уровне $113 019, а ETH — по $4 284.

Биткоин торгуется выше точки максимальной боли, это значит, что на рынке преобладают бычьи настроения. Ethereum находится ниже этого показателя и цена может оказаться под дополнительным медвежьим давлением. Между тем открытый интерес по ETH достиг рекордного уровня, посылая противоречивый сигнал.

Настроения на рынке перед экспирацией

Аналитики из Greeks.live отмечают, что среди трейдеров ETH доминируют осторожно оптимистичные настроения. Многие считают, что актив уже достиг дна.

«Основное внимание уделяется превосходству ETH по отношению к BTC, при этом трейдеры управляют рисками, фиксируя прибыль по коллам, сохраняя при этом некоторую дельта-экспозицию через короткие путы», — отметили они.

Одна из популярных стратегий — ожидание возможного отката к уровню $4 100 перед повторным входом в краткосрочные колл-позиции. Это сигнализирует об оптимизме и тактическом терпении, так как цель в $4 100 всего на 5% ниже текущего курса.

Экспирация опционов совпадает с экономическим симпозиумом в Джексон-Хоуле, важным экономическим событием для США на этой неделе. Трейдеры ждут, что политики определят курс денежно-кредитной политики и условия ликвидности на оставшуюся часть 2025 года. Ключевым событием на мероприятии будет выступление Джерома Пауэлла.

«Много внимания уделяется любым намекам от ФРС, особенно пятничной речи на симпозиуме в Джексон-Хоуле в Вайоминге… Рынки будут искать в речи ФРС указания на будущее денежно-кредитной политики», — сказал Ник Пакрин, основатель Coin Bureau, в заявлении для BeInCrypto.

По данным Greeks.live, объемы бычьих и медвежьих сделок достигли $1,61 млрд и $1,14 млрд соответственно, составляя две трети дневного оборота опционов. Краткосрочная подразумеваемая волатильность (IV) снизилась, несмотря на крупные позиции. Это говорит о том, что институциональные инвесторы не ожидают резкой реакции рынка на событие этой недели.

О том, почему биткоин может пасть жертвой распродаж, читайте в материале BeInCrypto.

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