我们距离全面山寨季还有多远？

深潮Published on 2025-08-13Last updated on 2025-08-14

比特币市占率已下降，以太坊市占率正在上升。

撰文：kkk，律动

8 月 12 日，以太坊一举突破 4700 美元，创下四年来新高，上周提前获利了结的@CryptoHayes 也在 8 月 9 日重新买回以太坊；比特币也再创新高，加密货币总市值冲上 4.2 万亿美元，市场情绪被彻底点燃。

传统市场同样热火朝天。美股标普 500 与纳斯达克 100 双双刷新历史纪录，全球流动性加速涌向风险资产；美元指数（DXY）跌破 98，更为资本流入股市和加密市场打开闸门。这样的宏观环境，不仅巩固了上涨趋势，也让投资者对高风险资产的信心节节攀升。

与此同时，市场几乎笃定美联储将在 9 月 17 日会议上降息，概率接近 100%，并将基准利率降至 4.00%-4.25% 区间。这一预期为依赖高流动性的市场——尤其是加密货币——提供了额外的燃料。如今，山寨季的财富效应成为市场热议焦点，关键就在于它何时全面启动。

接下来，律动 BlockBeats 整理了交易员们对接下的市场情况的看法，为大家本周的交易做出一些方向参考。

@b66ny

BTC.D 近期呈现明显的下降趋势，已从前期高点回落至约 57.7%。结合 ETH.D 的走势，我认为这是一个典型的资金轮动信号：市场资金开始从相对稳健的资产撤出，转而追求更高风险、更高潜在回报的标的。回顾历史，BTC.D 的持续走低，往往是山寨季启动的必要条件之一。

ETH.D 不仅代表以太坊本身的强弱，更常被视作整个山寨币市场的领头羊。目前 ETH.D 表现强势，主导率已回升至 14.0%，且伴随 ETH 价格的快速拉升，ETH/BTC 在 24 小时内上涨超 4%，显示出资金正明显从比特币流向以太坊的趋势。

这种走势是资金轮动的经典剧本：第一阶段，BTC 停滞甚至回落，资金开始流入 ETH；ETH 的上涨不仅提振了市场信心，也为更多流动性注入山寨市场创造条件。

接下来值得关注的是 OTHERS.D（除 BTC、ETH 等头部币种外的中小型山寨币市值占比）。目前 OTHERS.D 仍处于长时间的底部横盘，并未出现类似 ETH.D 的爆发性增长，这意味着资金热度依然集中在 ETH 等少数头部资产上。虽然 SOL 今日也有明显拉升，资金轮动的迹象更加明确，但还未全面扩散到高风险、小市值的投机板块。

综合三大指标来看，市场很可能正处于轮动的早期阶段：

已发生：BTC.D 下行，资金外溢。

正在发生：ETH.D 上升，资金集中涌入 ETH。

尚未发生：OTHERS.D 上升，资金扩散至小市值山寨币。

@im_BrokeDoomer

从 2017 年至今的山寨币与比特币市值对比来看，目前我们正处于通道下沿的关键支撑位置。这一位置历来是资金切入的敏感区间，往往伴随市场情绪回暖与轮动加速。若该支撑获得确认，山寨币板块有望迎来集体爆发，标志着新一轮山寨季的正式启动。

山寨季的启动流程一般如下所示，比特币（BTC）启动行情→ 以太坊（ETH）跟随上涨→ BTC 再次发力→ ETH 突破历史新高（ATH）→ 大市值山寨币上涨→ BTC 创下新高→ ETH 与大市值山寨币齐创新高→ 中市值山寨币起飞→ 小市值山寨币全面爆发

目前我们正处于第三阶段，ETH 与大市值山寨币创新高，后续其他山寨币的爆发可以期待。

@ZssBecker

在上一轮 2020 年牛市中，大多数山寨币的叙事并不是一开始就爆发，而是等到 ETH 价格突破历史高点并上涨 3 倍后才全面启动。那时，资金像洪水般涌入新叙事——例如游戏板块——推动相关代币暴涨 10、20 甚至 50 倍，Sandbox 更是一度飙升 80 倍，就连最空洞、最边缘的游戏项目也能实现十几倍的涨幅。这种现象直到牛市中后期才真正发生，但一旦启动，便成为财富效应的集中爆发期。

我认为，这一幕将在本轮行情中重演。当前我们依旧处于山寨季的第一阶段——BTC 与 ETH 的主导期。要等 ETH 突破 5000 美元以上、主流山寨币完成 2–3 倍涨幅后，市场资金才会疯狂寻找下一个叙事。而最有可能接棒的，将是 AI、RWA 和游戏，这三个领域在现实中已被加密产业高效切入并实现盈利，具备强叙事与高潜在回报。

上一轮游戏叙事的启动，让无数人从几千美元的本金翻成数百万美元的资产；而这一次，市场资金规模更大、风险偏好更高，一旦启动，资金推动力只会更猛烈。对于投资者来说，关键不是现在焦急追逐，而是耐心等待并提前布局。当叙事切换信号出现时，山寨季的高潮才会真正到来。

@lanhubiji

理解市场结构，就会明白山寨季一定会来，但形态可能与过去两轮完全不同。之前的山寨币数量有限，资金相对集中，几乎所有头部板块都会迎来普涨；而现在市面上已有上百万个币种，竞争极度分散，资金不可能覆盖全部标的。

这意味着，本轮行情更可能出现的是「局部山寨季」——资金会集中在少数具备强叙事、强社区和强流动性的板块或个别代币中形成局部狂欢，而大多数币依然会被市场忽视。对于投资者来说，机会依然存在，但选中标的的概率远低于过去，当下更看好 AI 赛道。

@joao_wedson

真正的山寨季还远未开始。聪明资金的流动路径通常是：先从 BTC 流向 ETH，再进入头部大盘币，最后扩散至中小市值代币。当前的行情才刚刚迈入前半段，真正的「山寨狂欢」还在路上，或许会一路持续到 11 月。换句话说，现在看到的上涨只是「前菜」，真正的「主菜」还没端上桌。

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