Matrixport投研:浅析本轮BTC上行的背后因素

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-05-30Last updated on 2025-05-30

Abstract

BTC买盘主力来自亚洲。

随着 BTC 飙升至 112, 000 美元,金融市场正迎来一场针对全球债券收益率和美元汇率的历史性重估,而这正是 BTC 近期飙升至 112, 000 美元的关键推手之一。

BTC 价格上行受亚洲宏观驱动加深

尽管亚洲多国官员否认在应对美国贸易逆差方面有任何协调干预汇率的行动,强调当前的货币走势主要是寿险公司与出口企业为对冲其大额美元敞口所致,但汇率升值的整体趋势仍在持续。随着亚洲货币不断走强,其经济影响也愈加明显:未来几个月,这一变化可能会对区域经济增长造成沉重压力。

与 4 月中旬的美股反弹类似,BTC 本轮上涨起初也被视为受特朗普反复变动的关税言论驱动。但如今他的威胁大多已被视为象征性动作,BTC 的持续上行越来越多地受到亚洲地区不断加深的宏观经济忧虑推动。一个关键的转折点出现在美股财报季结束后,美国企业回购重启,Coinbase 平台相较其他交易所的价格溢价迅速扩大,表明在 BTC 突破 87, 000 美元之际,美国投资者的看涨情绪显著升温。。

BTC 价值日益提高,新的“巨鲸”或将浮现

尽管 MicroStrategy 在过去一个月内购入了价值 40 亿美元的 BTC ,但真正的突破出现在 5 月 7 日之后,此前市场已连续盘整了两周。更深层的推动因素或许正在浮现:市场似乎正在向一个更宏观的经济“终局”演化,而 BTC 正日益成为其中的核心资产。本轮上涨的主导力量,很可能并非 MicroStrategy,而是一位更加隐秘、却同样实力雄厚的新买家。识别该买家及其资本实力,或将成为判断 BTC 后市走向的关键所在。

Metaplanet 上涨 190% ,日本散户或是 BTC 买盘主力

日本消费者信心正大幅下滑。日本央行在 5 月 1 日的会议上将 2024 年经济增长预期大幅下调,从 1.1% 降至仅 0.5% 。政府债券拍卖需求疲弱,加速了资金向 BTC 市场的流入,日本散户正日益成为主导力量。

自日本央行发布公告以来,日本的加密货币“影子股” Metaplanet 累计上涨 190% ,市值升至 48 亿美元,相较其所持 8.45 亿美元的 BTC 资产,溢价高达 470% 。鉴于日本尚未批准 BTC ETF,且相关监管政策预计最早也要到明年才能出台,投资者通过 Metaplanet 股票间接持有 BTC 的成本已接近每枚 60 万美元。

考虑到其净资产估值虚高,以及市值在短短一年内从 4000 万美元暴涨至 48 亿美元,投资 Metaplanet 仍属高度投机行为。尽管该公司目前持有约 8.45 亿美元的 BTC,其仓位规模仍远低于 MicroStrategy。虽然谷歌搜索趋势低迷,日本市场仍值得密切关注——显然有资金正在悄然持续建仓。越来越多的迹象表明, BTC 买盘主力来自亚洲——其主要涨幅通常集中在亚洲交易时段。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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