Прогноз цены Bitcoin (BTC) на начало июня: риск глубокой коррекции

cryptonews.ruPublished on 2022-08-29Last updated on 2025-05-29

Потеря канала: смена сценария

Цена Bitcoin вышла из восходящего канала на дневном графике, что подтверждает завершение предыдущего тренда. Ускорение нисходящего движения сопровождается медвежьей дивергенцией на осцилляторе Awesome Oscillator — это указывает на замедление импульса и рост вероятности дальнейшей коррекции.

Ключевые уровни поддержки

Первая поддержка формируется в районе $102 400 — месячный уровень, где возможен краткосрочный отскок. Однако данная зона не считается основной для набора позиций: сценарий предполагает, что именно в этом диапазоне будет происходить быстрая фиксация прибыли, без набора долгосрочных лонгов.

Основная область для стратегических покупок отмечается в зоне $92 000 — это совпадает с недельным гэпом и уровнем 0,5 коррекции Фибоначчи. Здесь сосредоточены лимитные ордера на покупку с расчетом на высокое соотношение риска к прибыли. Подход подразумевает терпеливое ожидание возврата цены к этой области, без спешки и попыток «догнать рынок».

Стратегия и сценарии

Пока цена BTC находится ниже границ пробитого канала, сценарий остается медвежьим. Любые отскоки от $102 400 оцениваются как временные и интересны только для краткосрочной торговли. Переломить структуру сможет только возврат внутрь восходящего канала — только в этом случае появится сигнал к формированию новых длинных позиций.

Пока что ключевой сценарий — ожидание дальнейшего снижения с прицелом на область $92 000. Формирование разворотного паттерна на этом уровне откроет возможности для набора лонга.

Вывод

Импульс роста по BTC исчерпан. Потеря восходящего канала и нарастание медвежьей динамики указывают на преимущество продавцов в ближайшей перспективе. Ожидание коррекции к $92 000 выглядит обоснованным, при этом ранние покупки от $102 400 стоит рассматривать только для кратких сделок.

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