比特币重返10万美元关口,大佬“道歉”:预测得太低了!

金十数据Published on 2025-05-09Last updated on 2025-05-09

受美国贸易紧张局势缓等消息提振,比特币周三、周四连续上涨,重回10万美元上方;第二大代币以太坊在周五一度逼近2500美元。

些走势延续了始于周三的涨势,此前中美释放将在瑞士举行贸易谈判的消息,标志着世界两大经济体之间的僵局可能缓和。

eToro市场分析师Josh Gilbert表示:“过去一周市场明显转向更偏好风险的基调。贸易紧张局势似乎正在缓解,特朗普示意愿意谈判,这有助于提振风险资产(尤其是比特币)的情绪。”

比特币在今年1月20日将历史新高刷新至109000美元上方,当时加密货币市场因弥漫着特朗普对美国加密货币运营商友好环境计划的乐观情绪。然而,特朗普的关税公告此后对加密货币构成压力。比特币从历史高点下跌约32%,在4月初跌破75000美元。

BTC Markets加密货币分析师Rachael Lucas表示,10万美元等具有心理意义的整数关口“通常会促使短期获利了结”,并补充说,如果比特币重回该水平,“交易员锁定利润后可能会迎来一段盘整期。”

一位曾预测比特币将在第二季度触及12万美元的渣打银行分析师现在表示,他的价格预测“太低了”。

渣打银行数字资产主管Geoffrey Kendrick周四通过电子邮件与客户分享了一句半开玩笑的评论:“对于我第二季度对比特币将达到12万美元的目标可能太低,我感到抱歉。”

上月,Kendrick在一份报告中写道,他预计比特币将在2025年第二季度触及约12万美元的历史新高,原因在于“战略性资产从美国资产中重新配置”以及“‘巨鲸’(主要持有者)的积累”。“我们预计这些支撑因素将推动比特币在第二季度触及约12万美元的新历史高点,涨势将持续整个夏季,使比特币逼近我们年底预测的20万美元。”

周四,Kendrick表示,他此前的12万美元比特币价格预测现在“看起来非常容易实现”,甚至可能这个目标也太低了。

这位渣打银行分析师表示:“比特币的主要叙事又变了。它曾是与风险资产相关联……后来变成了一种从美国资产中进行战略性资产重新配置的方式 。”

他补充说:“现在完全是关于资金流。资金正以多种形式涌入。

近年来,分析师们发现了一种模式,显示比特币的交易方式与美国科技股等风险资产类似。其理由是,更多机构资本流入比特币,使其更容易受到股市面临的同样市场风险的影响。

长期看好该加密货币的Kendrick表示,美国现货比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)在过去三周流入了53亿美元,表明更多机构资金正在涌入

他列举了几个大型投资者在投资组合中配置比特币的例子,包括软件公司MicroStrategy增加比特币购买量,阿布扎比主权财富基金持有贝莱德的IBIT比特币ETF,以及瑞士国家银行购买MicroStrategy的股票。

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