Matrixport投研:90,000美元或是判断BTC后市走向的关键价格指标

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-03-21Last updated on 2025-03-21

Abstract

美联储成为决定BTC后市走向的重要因素

最近对冲基金抛售 BTC 的浪潮可能正在接近其尾声。过去几周,融资利率和基准利率双双下降,同时芝加哥商品交易所(CME)BTC 未平仓合约显著减少。市场抛售压力现已基本耗尽, BTC 处于盘整阶段。

美联储成为决定 BTC 走向的重要因素

BTC 的筑顶过程始于 2024 年 12 月初强于预期的美国就业数据,这最初削弱了山寨币的势头。随后在 12 月中旬的鹰派美联储(FOMC)会议上,BTC 达到了峰值。尽管 BTC 在特朗普就职前再次尝试反弹,但几天前推出的特朗普模因币的崩盘导致整个 Meme 币牛市开始退潮。这一系列事件导致山寨币、BTC 和模因币的顶部形成,推动 BTC 进入当前的盘整阶段。美联储现已成为决定 BTC 是突破这一区间还是面临更深调整的关键因素。

尽管本周的美联储会议可能不会温和到足以推动 BTC 和山寨币的大幅反弹,但它确实标志着一个轻微的转向。鲍威尔主席表示,美联储将“忽略”近期通胀预期的上升,且不认为特朗普关税会导致持续的高通胀。美联储将采取观望态度,而不是通过加息来应对这些通胀压力。虽然增长预期被下调,但美联储会容忍暂时的通胀风险。结合量化紧缩的放缓,这次会议的基调可以被解读为温和的鸽派。

BTC 大户成为市场的主导群体,BTC 结构性承压能力上升

自 2024 年 11 月特朗普当选以来,出现一个明确的趋势:持有 100 至 1, 000 枚 BTC(价值约 800 万至 8, 000 万美元)的钱包成为主导群体。这可能反映了家族办公室和财富管理机构对 BTC 的长期积累,尤其是在监管清晰度提高的情况下。这种结构性转变是我们不再预期过去 BTC 周期中极端情况下 70-80% 回撤的关键原因之一。

过去三周,BTC 价格一直低于其 21 周移动平均线。结合 21 周移动平均线和短期持有者指标,可将 90, 000 美元视为一个关键的转折点,它可能决定 BTC 是继续处于牛市还是熊市。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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602 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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