Matrixport 投研:全球流动性虽然改善,仍需谨慎面对市场风险

链捕手Published on 2025-03-14Last updated on 2025-03-14

随着美元走软导致流动性指标反弹,以及通胀数据的边际改善。尽管出现了这些积极变化,但一度是本轮牛市最强劲叙事之一的 MEME Coin 仍然表现不佳,似乎没有任何复苏的迹象。

通胀压力导致全球市场连锁反应

美国劳动力市场的走强导致山寨币市场的涨势在 2024 年 12 月初达到顶峰。2024 年 12 月中旬,在美联储主席鲍威尔表示由于特朗普政府关税政策带来的通胀压力,利率可能维持不变后, BTC 进入了盘整阶段。尽管美联储预计关税会带来一定的通胀影响,但特朗普激进且快速的关税实施超出了大多数经济学家的预期,在股票和加密市场中引发了连锁效应。

尽管本周的美国通胀报告略好于预期,但未能带来太多安慰。围绕贸易政策的持续不确定性仍然使市场对美联储近期采取宽松措施的可能性持悲观态度。

MEME Coin 盘整明显,Pump.fun 收入下滑明显

对于 MEME Coin 而言,盘整的迹象非常显现。自 2 月以来,Raydium (一款基于 Solana 的自动化做市商和 Serum 去中心化交易平台的流动性提供者)价格暴跌71%,而 Solana 本身下跌了37%。

Pump.fun 是一个基于 Solana 区块链的去中心化交易平台(DEX),它在快速推出、发现和投机交易模因币方面成为了交易员的热门平台。平台支持快速创建和交易代币,通常导致极其波动的市场活动。在过去的 12 个月里,Pump.fun 平台创造了超过 5.82 亿美元的收入,使其成为这一周期中最赚钱的加密项目之一。然而,最近其收入增长迅速下滑。

山寨币市场疲软,市场资金进一步谨慎

山寨币市场在 12 月的疲弱势头以及 MEME Coin 泡沫在1月的破裂,共同导致加密货币市场市值减少了 1 万亿美元——从 3.6 万亿美元下降到 2.6 万亿美元。这种财富的重新分配可能会让投资者对进一步投入资金保持谨慎态度,从而导致即使受到更好通胀数据推动的反弹也极为有限。对冲基金平仓完全实现的套利头寸是近期抛售压力的主要驱动力。这种预期的抛售大多已经完成,现在可能已接近其最高强度。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。 

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