传统金融巨头抢滩入场,哪些加密 ETF 将接棒上市?

Foresight NewsPublished on 2025-03-13Last updated on 2025-03-13

Abstract

分析师推测称,莱特币 ETF 在今年年底前上市的可能性最高(90%),高于狗狗币(75%)、Solana(70%)和 XRP 产品(65%)。

撰文:Liz Napolitano

编译:BitpushNews

美国比特币和以太坊 ETF 去年的获批只是开始:各大发行商正计划推出更多种类的美国基金,旨在直接追踪包括 DOGE、Solana、XRP、甚至 TRUMP 币在内的多种加密货币价格。

近日,传统金融巨头富兰克林邓普顿 (Franklin Templeton) 提交了 XRP 现货 ETF 的提案, 这无疑是加密货币 ETF 领域的一个重要信号。虽然此前已有 Grayscale、Bitwise、WisdomTree 等加密货币原生机构提交了类似申请,但富兰克林邓普顿的入局,标志着传统金融巨头开始正式进军这一新兴领域。

富兰克林邓普顿是一家管理着约 1.5 万亿美元资产的资管巨头,体量庞大,虽不及贝莱德那般举足轻重,但其入场的影响力依然不容小觑。相比之下,贝莱德尚未加入山寨币 ETF 的竞争。

富兰克林邓普顿量化投资方案主管 Roger Bayston 在去年 12 月就曾表示, 2025 年上半年 ETF 法律团队将会异常忙碌。该公司上个月已推出了一只加密货币指数基金(目前仅限持有 BTC 和 ETH),并已申请 Solana ETF。

以下是可能在美国推出的加密货币 ETF 产品列表。

Solana ETF

现货 Solana 交易所交易基金(ETF)可能是比特币和以太坊 ETF 的潜在替代品。

拟议上市的基金包括 VanEck Solana Trust、21Shares Core Solana ETF、Canary Solana ETF 和 Bitwise Solana ETF,这些基金将直接追踪 Solana 的价格。

富兰克林邓普顿在 2 月提交了 S-1 注册声明,芝加哥期权交易所(CBOE)在 3 月代表富兰克林坦普顿提交了上市规则变更申请。

此外,一些拟议的 Solana 期货 ETF(如 ProShares Short Solana、ProShares 2x Solana 和 Vol Shares 的 Solana ETF)将使投资者能够对 Solana 的价格走势进行更复杂的押注

然而,彭博分析师 James Seyffart 表示,现货和期货 Solana ETF 可能要到 2026 年才能在美国开始交易,因为美国证券交易委员会(SEC)仍需评估一批现货 Solana ETF 申请。SEC 于 2 月 6 日承认了 Grayscale 的 Solana ETF 申请,并正在就该申请征求公众意见,一位分析师称这标志着该机构进入了「新领域」。

SEC 通常需要 240 至 260 天来做出决定,但关于 Solana 是否属于证券的诉讼可能会延长这一过程。尽管如此,如果现货 Solana ETF 获批,其吸引的投资资金可能会非常庞大。摩根大通分析师预测,Solana ETF 可能会带来 40 亿至 80 亿美元的投资。

狗狗币 ETF

一些发行方已表示计划推出现货狗狗币 ETF。

Rex Shares 在 1 月申请推出 Rex-Osprey DOGE ETF,而 Bitwise 资产管理公司也在特拉华州注册了狗狗币 ETF 实体。此外,加密货币投资公司 Grayscale 也计划推出狗狗币 ETF,并于 1 月底推出了狗狗币信托基金,随后提交了将其转换为 ETF 的申请。

SEC 在 2 月承认了 Grayscale 的申请,但在 3 月推迟了决定,将最终决定期限延长至 5 月 21 日。

彭博社高级 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 在 1 月份表示,理论上,现货狗狗币 ETF 最早可能在 4 月份推出,这要取决于一项规则,该规则使联邦监管机构能够在 75 天的快速时间内权衡投资产品提案,而不是通常的八到九个月的审查期。

XRP ETF

围绕 Ripple 相关的 XRP 的基金(如 Rex-Osprey XRP ETF、Canary XRP ETF 和 21Shares Core XRP Trust)正在接受审核。

2 月初,芝加哥 Cboe 交易所向联邦监管机构申请上市和交易四种现货 XRP ETF,显示出投资者对追踪 Ripple Labs 加密资产的基金的兴趣日益增长。富兰克林坦普顿也在 3 月加入了这一行列。

SEC 在 2 月底承认了多份 XRP ETF 申请,并表示将在 21 天内提交意见。如果 XRP ETF 获批,摩根大通分析师预计这些基金可能会带来 30 亿至 60 亿美元的投资。

此外,XRP 期货 ETF(如 ProShares Short XRP 和 ProShares 2x XRP)也在考虑之中,前者允许投资者做空 XRP,后者则使投资者能够对 XRP 的未来价格走势进行杠杆押注。

比特币 Plus ETF

特朗普媒体与技术集团(Trump Media and Technology Group)的 Truth.Fi 申请注册了两种「比特币 Plus」产品的商标,分别是 Truth.Fi Bitcoin Plus ETF 和 Truth.Fi Bitcoin Plus SMA。目前尚不清楚这些 ETF 将持有哪些资产。

加密货币指数 ETF

富兰克林坦普顿在 2 月初提交了一份修正申请,计划推出「富兰克林加密货币指数 ETF」。该 ETF 将追踪比特币和以太坊的价格,权重分别为 86.31% 和 13.69%,未来还可能包括其他加密货币。

Aptos ETF

加密货币资产管理公司 Bitwise 在 3 月初向证券委员会提交了 S-1 文件,计划推出追踪 Aptos(APT)价格的 ETF。

Sui ETF

Canary Capital 在 3 月初提交了特拉华州信托申请,计划推出基于 Sui 的 ETF。

Movement ETF

Rex Shares 和 Osprey Funds 在 3 月初提交了申请,计划推出追踪 Movement Network 原生代币 MOVE 的 ETF。

HBAR ETF

Canary Capital 在去年 11 月提交了首份 HBAR ETF 申请。HBAR 是 Hedera 网络的原生加密货币。

莱特币 ETF

在特朗普就职后,一系列莱特币 ETF 申请被提交。CoinShares 提交了两份注册声明,分别用于「CoinShares Litecoin ETF」和「CoinShares XRP ETF」,纽约证券交易所也表示 Grayscale 正试图将其现有的莱特币信托转换为 ETF。

新的申请是在 Canary Capital 提交其莱特币 ETF 申请大约两个月后,以及 Canary 提交其基金申请修正案几天后提交的。

彭博社分析师 Eric Balchunas 认为,与现货 HBAR ETF 类似,Canary Capital 的莱特币 ETF 可能比基于狗狗币、XRP 和 Solana 的基金更早获得批准,这是因为莱特币的监管地位不像 Solana 等其他币那样存在争议。

BONK、TRUMP ETF

Rex Shares 在 1 月向联邦监管机构提交了申请,计划推出现货 TRUMP 和 BONK 币 ETF。

总结

彭博情报分析师 Seyffart 指出,在特朗普提名的 SEC 主席 Paul Atkins 获得国会确认之前,SEC 不太可能对这些申请做出决议,而且目前尚未安排 Atkins 的确认听证会。此外,现货比特币和以太坊 ETF 的获批曾经历数年时间,SEC 此前将相关资产期货市场的成熟度作为重要审批标准,而目前待审的 ETF 申请均未满足这一标准。

尽管如此,分析师推测称,莱特币 ETF 在今年年底前上市的可能性最高(90%),高于狗狗币(75%)、Solana(70%)和 XRP 产品(65%),不过,最终结果仍取决于新掌舵者的确认及其政策方向。

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