Matrixport投研:流动性和宏观经济指标如何影响BTC

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-02-14Last updated on 2025-02-14

Abstract

流动性回暖助推 BTC,宏观经济指标影响市场趋势

BTC 在市场流动性回归时表现良好。作为一种去中心化和稀缺的数字资产,BTC 在金融条件宽松、风险偏好高、资本流入投机性资产的环境中茁壮成长。然而,BTC 与流动性的关系不仅仅是理论上的,更是由影响市场条件的具体宏观经济指标驱动的。

由于二者在金融体系中的角色迥异、市场结构的差异和投资者行为的不同,BTC 和黄金对不同流动性情景的反应也各不相同。机构和散户投资者将更多资本配置到投机性资产中,导致 BTC 价格上涨。黄金也往往表现良好,但影响更间接。较低的利率降低了持有黄金的机会成本,从而增加了对于黄金作为价值储存手段的需求。

随着流动性枯竭,投资者会从风险资产中撤出,减少杠杆。黄金表现较好,因为它被认为是避险资产。然而,利率上升会增加持有黄金的机会成本,从而限制其上行空间。

2024 年 7 月,参议员辛西娅·卢米斯提出了“ 2024 年通过优化投资提升全国创新、技术和竞争力(BITCOIN)法案”。该法案建议美国财政部在五年内购买一百万枚 BTC,以建立战略 BTC 储备。

如果美国出售其 15% 的黄金储备,将变现约 1100 亿美元,按当前价格可以购买 105 万枚 BTC。然而,比特币价格不会在如此大的购买压力下保持稳定。根据我们的计算, 180 亿美元的流入通常会推动 BTC 价格上涨 1 万美元(这个数字也具有波动性)。这表明,美国政府斥资 1100 亿美元收购比特币可能会使 BTC 价格上涨 6 万美元,而这甚至没有考虑此举对市场的心理影响。

BTC 和黄金都对宏观经济指标作出类似的反应,美联储和财政部在持有二者中的任何一个或确定其比例时都应该是无偏好的。BTC 和黄金的上涨是有原因的——它们的飙升是由市场流动性和对替代资产的强劲需求驱动的。

BTC 的价格变动受到流动性条件、货币政策、利率、通货膨胀和美元强度的极大影响。ON RRP 余额、美联储的资产负债表、国债收益率和联邦基金利率等指标提供了对整体流动性环境的关键洞见。

上述部分观点来自 Matrix on Target, 与我们联系获取 Matrix on Target 完整报告。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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