特朗普效应下，Solana 应声大涨近 50%，还能涨多少？

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-01-24Last updated on 2025-01-24

Abstract

大人，我要成为P元帅！！

1 月 18 日美区时间晚，特朗普发布了自己的同名代币$TRUMP，Solana 应声大涨接近 50% ，冲破前高，接近 300 美元大关，截止目前有所回落，同时再次引燃了 Solana 网络的链上情绪。


链上的又一剂「情绪兴奋剂」


从链上的数据角度分析，Solana 网络的活跃地址数据、交易数据等数据在$TRUMP 发布之后纷纷 V 反，甚至接近曾经有史以来的最高水平。Solana 网络在短期内涌入了大量的 Web3 存量资金以及部分由 Moonshot 引入的 Web2 增量资金。Moonshot 官方表示，在 TRUMP 网站上被推荐为首选购买方式后，该平台 12 小时交易量达 4 亿美元，同时已有超过 40 万名新用户通过其应用加入 Solana 生态，大量新用户的加入体现了 Solana 网络链上情绪的高涨。

特朗普效应下的Solana：链上才是未来？


特朗普效应下的Solana：链上才是未来？


TRUMP 币发行后，Solana 网络的 Gas 费也出现了剧烈的波动。由于大量的交易需求，发生了很严重的交易拥堵状况，造成了交易手续费在短时间内的急剧上升，甚至一度导致 Binance 暂停了在交易所内提币的交易以及 Solana 网络交易的暂停。

特朗普效应下的Solana：链上才是未来？


无限循环的 PVP


同 11 月、 12 月相比，从 Web 知名人物发币这个角度，跑出来的大市值项目只有 TRUMP 和 TRUMP 夫人，而同样很有角度的在 1 月 21 日-1 月 24 日举行的美国首屈一指的加密货币会议 Wagmi MIAMI 发布的官方 Meme 币却在强烈的 PVP 中光速「归零」；由链上侦探 ZACHXBT 官方「认可」的同名代币 ZACHXBT 也因为其「没有格局地撤池子」中归零了；Trump 在就职演讲中多次提到的口号，同样也在社交媒体中转发的口号「America Is Back」的同名 meme 币「AIB」的生命周期也不过 6 个小时。链上 PVP 的氛围更浓了，交易「链上」变成了「跑得快」的逻辑。

特朗普效应下的Solana：链上才是未来？


但当我们回顾链上情绪同样活跃的 9 月-11 月，「大金狗」层出不穷，有着在 AI Agent 方面不断迭代更新的 Griffain、ARC、Swarms；还有新概念新角度 DeSci 的相关代币 Drugs、RIF、URO、MIRA；短期内的「造富神话」可能只有$Trump 了。


Trump 上任美国总统后，对于 Web3 实打实的利好可能只有发行同名 meme 代币，在就职演讲中，对于加密货币市场闭口不谈。Trump 上台之后对于 Web3 的增量资金可能只有来自 Moonshot 的购入其同名代币，而其同名代币无疑大量吸血了 Web3 的资金，Trump 代币市值接近 80 亿美元之时，加密货币市场总市值却缩水 200 亿。链上的有格局的大资金聪明钱被吸血，对于 meme 无疑是重创。毕竟「拉盘才是真正的角度」，没有钱，不拉盘也就没有了角度。


说回到 AI Agent 概念，AI Agent 概念目前看来已经接近走出了「海选」阶段，开始进入「淘汰赛」阶段，很多能发的 AI Agent 相关代币已经发完了，像前一阵的「黑客松刮刀行情」：在黑客松上获奖的项目密集发币的阶段已经结束了，现在在「从 0 到 1」向着「从 1 到 100」进行转变，没有上交易所的 AI Agent 市场押注哪一个 AI Agent 会下一个上交易所，而上交易所的 AI Agent 继续比拼生态技术。


CEX「逼宫」DEX，meme 叙事还有未来吗？


AI Agent 目前来看是基本锁定为本轮周期的最重要叙事了，AI Meme 在不断的发展，目前来看，第一阶段的 meme：GOAT ACT 已经基本被淘汰，属于主要跟跌而不跟涨的品种；而第二阶段的 AI Agent 成为了每次大盘反弹时最凶猛的品种。这轮周期中的「反 VC」浪潮仍然进行着，最近上新的所谓「价值币」「VC 币」：SOLV、ME 等大多上线即下跌，市场上没人「接盘」这些「价值币」甚至都没有人讨论「价值币」了。

特朗普效应下的Solana：链上才是未来？


对于来说散户来说，Web3 的奇迹或许只能出现在链上了。已经上交易所的币一定程度上已经算是出尽了利好，而在越来越困难的「上下插针」的地狱行情中，想通过合约活下来都尚且不容易，更别说创造交易奇迹。目前最活跃的 Solana 网络和 Base 网络极低的手续费也为绝大多数散户的进入降低了不少成本。


cex 交易所离散户渐行渐远，链上绕过 vc 和交易所，散户能低价买到好的标的筹码。链上从零开始，诞生了无数市值数十亿美金，数万倍涨幅的巨无霸。链上才是未来，DEX 的交易量逐渐增加，或许在不远的某一天就会出现 DEX 的交易量超过 CEX。


从更宏观的角度来看，链上的叙事远远没有讲完。特朗普尚且没有公布对于加密的其他利好政策，如果放松对于加密的监管，涌入更多的 Web2 资金成为 Web3 的增量资金，而且不仅出现在交易所，更以 Moonshot 或者更直接的形式出现在链上，继续出来「大金狗」、「大事件」，带动想象力的增长，PVP 变化成 PVE，以持续的造富效应吸引 Web2 才是可持续性的性感叙事。

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