SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

Odaily星球日报Published on 2025-01-20Last updated on 2025-01-20

Abstract

备受期待的Trump 2.0并未让人失望,这位候任总统在短短几天内进行了一系列引人注目的操作,包括与中国国家主席习近平进行一次“非常好”的通话,表示将暂缓执行TikTok禁令,以及令人难以置信地在Solana上推出了“官方”$TRUMP代币,为未来四年的“投资”氛围提供了预览。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

备受期待的 Trump 2.0 并未让人失望,这位候任总统在短短几天内进行了一系列引人注目的操作,包括与中国国家主席习近平进行一次“非常好”的通话,表示将暂缓执行 TikTok 禁令,以及令人难以置信地在 Solana 上推出了“官方” $TRUMP 代币,为未来四年的“投资”氛围提供了预览。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

即使按照加密货币的狂野标准,$TRUMP memecoin 的天文级上涨也是前所未见的,且我们认为这为整个行业树立了一个危险(且不健康)的先例,尤其是在主流机构才刚刚开始认可加密货币的正当性之时。

以下快速回顾在过去 72 小时内占据全球视线的 $TRUMP 代币的发行事件:

  1. $TRUMP 在周五晚上毫无预警地推出,当时大多数人并未注意。

  2. 代币在 Solana 上发行,意在最大化其 memecoin 影响,意图十分明确。

  3. Twitter 用户称,$TRUMP 相关网站和地址在几周前就已设置,表明这是一个精心策划的行动。

  4. 代币市值在发行后数小时内飙升至约 140 亿美元(FDV 飙升至约 700 亿美元),使其凭空成为现存规模最大的代币之一,并打破了所有资本市场的纪录。

  5. DEX 交易占主导地位,Solana 最大的 DEX 在一天内创造了约 2500 万美元的费用收入,而 Moonshot 成为美国下载量最大的 iOS 应用程序之一,吸引了近 5 亿美元的交易量以及 20 万新用户入场。

  6. 美国的大型交易所(Kraken、Coinbase)打破惯例,率先上架 $TRUMP 代币,美国在加密货币领域的影响力在本周期中持续增长。

  7. 根据各种链上分析,关于 $TRUMP 团队是否一直在上涨过程中抛售代币的谣言四起。

  8. 在以太坊(ETH)遭遇大量 FUD 情绪之际(表现落后),Trump 的 World Liberty Financial 团队于周末买入了约 1500 万 ETH 而登上头条,进一步引发外界对其近期动机的疑问。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

就在市场准备迎接周一美股开盘并期待总统首日签署行政命令之际,他的团队又抛出了另一个完全出乎意料的重磅炸弹:$MELANIA 代币匆忙上线,导致 $TRUMP 价格直线下跌 40% ,并拖累了整个生态系统。现在问题来了,是否还会有 $BARRON 代币登场?

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

无论是 TradFi 还是加密货币市场的观察者都在努力理解这位即将上任的总统在就职前几天推出 memecoin 的“智慧”,但随著 $MELANIA 的上线,任何剩余的理性思考都被彻底打碎了。撇开合法性问题不谈,这些机会主义行为可能已经严重损害了我们过去 18 个月努力积累的正当性,不仅如此,memecoins 本质上是一场零和游戏(暂时的财富效应),$TRUMP/$MELANIA 的暴涨从系统中吸走了大量流动性,并使大量后期进场的投资者面临重大的资本风险。

我们对此感到担忧,希望这些 meme 驱动的发展能够退居二线,让行业重新专注于与机构相关的正规化进程。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

回到“无聊”的普通市场,Trump 2.0 任期将在美国经济表现极为强劲(亚特兰大 GDP 模型预测第四季度 ~ 3% )且美股接近历史高点的背景下开始,鉴于 Trump 在关税问题上的立场反复,预计未来在关税、移民、财政支出甚至人事变动方面将出现更加不稳定但直接的政策,目前有传言称,Vivek Ramaswamy 已准备退出 D.O.G.E,为俄亥俄州州长竞选做准备。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

华尔街预计 Trump 在就职当天将签署 50-100 项行政命令,对美国市场的具体影响将取决于签署命令的详细内容。自 9 月以来,市场一直表现良好,资产价格普遍上涨,而股市在上周五也因友好的 CPI 数据和 BTC 上涨而表现不错。

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

尽管上周五市场有所缓解,但债券市场未来可能面临更大的挑战,因为美联储仍在应对宽松的金融形势、强劲的基础经济以及棘手的通胀问题。新任联储官员 Beth Hammack 在《华尔街日报》的最新访问中表达了对粘性通胀的担忧,与近期就业、新屋开工和工业生产数据的强势表现相呼应。

本周注定会是疯狂的一周,祝大家交易顺利!

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

SignalPlus宏观分析特别版:He's Back.

您可在 t.signalplus.com 使用 SignalPlus 交易风向标功能,获取更多实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlusCN,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:SignalPlus 123)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

SignalPlus Official Website:https://www.signalplus.com

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