特朗普妻子 Melania 也发币、市场要被玩儿坏了吗?

链捕手Published on 2025-01-20Last updated on 2025-01-20

文章来源:话李话外

上周六(1月18日)上午的时候,我们再一次见证了历史:美国总统自己发币了。

随后,群里的伙伴就开始围绕 TRUMP 币的这个话题进行了热火朝天的讨论。总统发币,也让市场的情绪一下子变得 FOMO,这两天社交平台基本都是在讨论这个事情,据说大部分的社区(群)也都在围绕这个事情陷入疯狂的追踪。

这件事情不仅形成了出圈效应,各大媒体、自媒体纷纷第一时间抓住热点进行报道,头部交易所争相上线,估计吸引进来了不少大爷大妈抄(jie)底(pan)。而且对市场也产生了直接性的影响,带动 SOL 等个别币种快速上涨的同时,也导致大盘整体被吸血。

然后,社交平台和一些社区(群)里面就纷纷开始出现各种暴富名单,据说有 KOL 一天时间就赚到了 2000 万美元以上,这种一夜暴富效应又进一步增加了人们继续 FOMO 的情绪,这两天我发现后台也纷纷进来一些新留言问:TRUMP 还能不能买?

关于能不能买这种问题,我对 MemeCoin 的建议一向是保持不变的(即便是总统发的币也一样):即买不买要根据你个人的风险偏好去决定,如果你实在忍不住想参与,那么就拿自己能够接受亏损的仓位(资金)去玩儿就好了。

不要总是看到别人一天赚 2000 万美元就觉得自己也行,这里我说句大白话,别人能够在这个事情上面投入 200 万美元的本金去操作,前提应该是他心理能够承受 200 万美元损失的,而且 200 万美元的仓位也许并不是对方的全部。如果你心理上也能够做到这一点,你当然也可以拿出 200 万美元去跟(下注)。当然,仓位的分配只是最基础的,这里面可能还需要天时(进场早)、地利(链上准备好大资金)、人和(喊单找人接盘)。

TRUMP 发币的时间也很有趣,很会挑选时间,选择了周六早上(北京时间)发币,因此也有不少人喜欢睡懒觉的人再次出现集体拍断大腿的情景……这就会为人们进一步的 FOMO 创造了条件。

记得在去年(2024)的电子书中我们曾提到:上一轮牛市阶段性结束的标志事件是各路名人/企业纷纷进场发行各种 NFT、搞什么链游和元宇宙,而这轮牛市大概率可能会进场发行 Memes 什么的。如下图所示。

只是我也没想到的是,本轮牛市发展到了目前这个阶段, 带头发币的名人居然是美国总统!

上一篇文章(1月17日)中我们主要谈论了“变革”的话题,里面提到了一个长牛的假设。而至于 TRUMP 这波儿热度是阶段性牛市最后的高潮、还是一个长牛的标志性起点,这个我们目前还无法判断,继续交给时间去验证吧。

昨天的时候,我还看到有人开玩笑说,接下来人们看到的大盘涨幅榜应该是:

TRUMP

MELANIA

IVANKA

JARED

ERIC

LARA

DON JR

TIFFANY

BARRON

现在玩笑开始变成了现实,这不,TRUMP 的热度还在继续的时候,今天早上(北京时间)特朗普妻子 Melania Trump 也在 X 发文表示,已推出 Meme 代币 MELANIA。今天早上起床后我看到群里伙伴们 6 点开始就在讨论 MELANIA 了,等送完闺女去幼儿园回来又看了一眼价格,MELANIA 已经涨到了 9.5 美元。如下图所示。

简直了,这是特朗普一家要纷纷发币的节奏啊,太疯狂了!不过比较有趣的一点是,Melania 代币锁定期的逐步解锁机制是从 30 天的锁定期开始,然后是每月有限的释放,这与 TRUMP 代币每天都有解锁期不同。

估计接下来几天,市场会继续陷入这种 FOMO 的情绪中,这里面既有机会(更多是短期的投机),也会面临更高的短期风险,我们还是那个建议:想赌可以,拿自己能够承受亏损的仓位去玩,做好自己的仓位管理,尽量避免情绪化操作。

随着特朗普家族相关概念代币的爆火,现在相关的加密 APP 下载量那也是嗖嗖地飙升啊,看看应用商店里面财经分类下排名前几的应用就可以感受到当下的情绪了。如下图所示。

另外一件比较有趣的,这两天的 FOMO 交易狂潮也导致了一些 Solana 基础设施服务出现中断,比如:

Phantom 钱包(号称是 Solana 上的 Metamask、拥有超过 1500 万月活用户)就在 X 发文称:我们目前正经历每分钟 800 万多次请求的大规模激增,在我们努力稳定平台的同时,交易可能无法一次性完成。如下图所示。

Moonshot(一个Solana 代币发射台)也在 X 发文称:我们目前流量极大,一些交换可能会失败。如下图所示。

随着 FOMO 情绪的继续,很多错过 TRUMP、MELANIA 的人似乎又看上了长势不错的 SOL,认为既然这些 Memes 的交易离不来 SOL,买这个肯定是没错了,然后纷纷在 280 美元左右的跑步位置进场,然后喊着 SOL 一定会到 1000 美元的口号。

关于 SOL 的价格问题,其实话李话外在去年的文章中也有过几次探讨,比如在 2024 年 8 月 11 日的时候,我们就以“2025年牛市SOL会超过1000美元吗”为题发过一篇单独的文章,如下图所示。感兴趣的伙伴可以重新回看对应的历史文章。

这里我想要表达的一点是,2021 年牛市的时候,SOL 的价格达到过 258 美元,当时对应的市值是 750 亿美元。截至撰写本文时(2025年1月20日),好巧不巧 SOL 的价格正好也是 258 美元,但现在对应的市值是 1200 亿美元。也就是说,两个时间点 SOL 的价格没有变,但市值膨胀了很多,大白话解释的话就是,SOL 的通胀会稀释其代币的价值,市场需要更多的流动性(资金)才能够维持住相同的价格。

如果你认为本轮牛市 SOL 可以达到 1000 美元,我不会反驳你,但我的建议是,我们要先把流动性的底层逻辑想明白。换句话说,如果你能在流动性这件事情上面说服自己,那么别说 258 的 SOL 了,就是 500 的 SOL 你也可以直接梭接盘哈。

其实 SOL 还算好的,虽然市值膨胀了,但这两天价格还是突破了 ATH,而如果你仔细去关注一下其他一些山寨币的市值可能会发生更多此类的情况(比如代币的市值超过了前高,但代币当前的价格却在下跌)。

至于为什么会导致目前这样的结果,其实我们在去年关于山寨季的系列文章中,都有过相应的梳理和分析。这里面的原因包括:本轮诞生的项目太多、很多项目高FDV低流通等。

简而言之,我们依然保持前些天文章的观点,今年我们还可能依然有机会看到山寨季的机会,但目前的流动性理论上应该支撑不起来像上一轮牛市那样的山寨季景象(几乎所有的山寨都暴涨),各种通胀严重(包括持续解锁问题)的项目代币正在夺走许多山寨币本该有的潜在收益。

最后再给大家出个思考题吧:随着 1 月 18 日 TRUMP 概念币的火爆出圈,理论上应该是能够吸引更多的新人和资金进场的,那为什么 TOTAL2(除BTC外所有山寨币市值之和)还下跌了呢?钱都去哪儿了呢?市场要被玩儿坏了吗?如下图所示。

总之,不管市场情绪多么 FOMO,我们依然还是保留之前的建议:情绪投机和价值投资是完全不同的两种策略,你首先要明确你自己的策略是什么,或者你自己适合哪种策略。

我们抛开其他政治因素不谈论,现在加密领域需要的就是流动性,特朗普家族纷纷发币似乎是在给其他名人/机构打样,如果老美真的能够靠着发空气币吸引美元回流(比如达到几千亿美元的规模),那这个可比什么“关税战”啥的高效率多了。

地球上可以有很多的总统、加密市场也可以有无数个 Memes,但比特币只有一个,最终所有的通道大概率都会通向比特币,如果忽略掉任何的短期波动,那么你只要继续拿好你手里的饼子就好了。

TRUMP代币现在对加密市场最大的贡献就是创造出圈效应和带头效应,为市场带来更多的流动性,但如果你不知道市场的流动性来自哪里,那么,你就是那个提供流动性的人。

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Timeline and Historical Development of Tokenized Equity Innovation The timeline of CRMON's development and Ondo Finance's broader tokenised capabilities demonstrates a systematic innovation process beginning with the company's founding in 2021. 2021: Ondo Finance is founded by Nathan Allman and co-founders, launching initial products focused on structured vault offerings on the Ethereum blockchain. 2022: The company completes substantial funding rounds—both equity and token sales—totaling significant capital and launching initial tokenised U.S. Treasury products. 2023-2024: Ondo Finance experiences substantial growth, establishing partnerships with major financial institutions while expanding its product offerings beyond fixed-income securities. February 2025: Ondo Global Markets is announced, marking the transition into equity tokenisation with plans for accessing over one hundred U.S. stocks and ETFs. September 2025: The official launch of Ondo Global Markets includes CRMON alongside other tokenised equity offerings, marking a significant evolution in Ondo Finance's product ecosystem. This timeline highlights the organisation's rapid growth and its capability to adapt its technological and compliance frameworks to accommodate different asset classes effectively while maintaining security and regulatory integrity. Regulatory Framework and Compliance Approach Ondo Finance's regulatory framework showcases a sophisticated compliance strategy, essential for achieving institutional adoption in the tokenised securities market. The company's strong partnerships with U.S.-registered broker-dealers promote adherence to Securities and Exchange Commission regulations and apply robust investor protections. Acquisitions, such as Oasis Pro—a registered broker-dealer—significantly enhance Ondo Finance's compliance capabilities, ensuring thorough alignment with existing regulatory structures. The company employs independent verification procedures that foster transparency, aiming for a solid performance standards reputation. Furthermore, Ondo Finance's commitment extends to international regulatory compliance, ensuring token access remains restricted to eligible investors while adhering to pertinent cross-border securities regulations. Comprehensive attention to tax implications and reporting requirements fortifies the security and compliance landscape of CRMON, ensuring that investor obligations remain manageable. Future Prospects and Market Positioning The forward-looking landscape for CRMON and Ondo Finance illustrates substantial growth opportunities driven by institutional adoption of blockchain technology and escalating demand for efficient alternatives to conventional securities ownership. Market projections indicate the tokenised asset sector could value multiple trillion dollars by 2030. With plans to scale CRMON offerings significantly and integrate it with a dedicated blockchain infrastructure—Ondo Chain—Ondo Finance aims to elevate its institutional-grade tokenised asset operations. Additionally, the development of strategic partnerships enhances distribution capabilities while establishing the company's credibility in the financial market. Furthermore, the integration of tokenised equity with decentralised finance protocols offers new potential for innovative financial products and strategies previously impossible with traditional securities. These factors underscore CRMON's positioning to effectively capture increased market share and deliver innovative solutions for international investment exposure. Conclusion Salesforce Tokenized Stock (CRMON) symbolises a transformative development within financial markets, successfully bridging traditional equity ownership with blockchain technology to create unprecedented accessibility for global investors. Through Ondo Finance's sophisticated tokenisation framework, CRMON provides complete economic exposure to Salesforce equity performance while enhancing operational advantages that exceed traditional ownership. The launch of CRMON reflects the broader evolution of financial markets towards blockchain infrastructures that maintain regulatory compliance while delivering increased efficiency. Ondo Finance's extensive approach to regulatory adherence, institutional-grade security, and technological innovation solidifies CRMON as a model for future tokenised securities, delivering access previously unattainable in conventional brokerage structures. As the tokenised asset sector continues to develop, CRMON is well-positioned to address historical inefficiencies in capital markets while providing investors with innovative solutions for accessing traditional securities. The outlook for CRMON looks exceptionally promising, supported by ambitious expansion plans, technological innovations, and strategic partnerships, thereby representing a pioneering model of modern financial infrastructure evolving through blockchain integration.

3.5k Total ViewsPublished 2025.12.05Updated 2025.12.05

What is CRMON

What is SHOPON

Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo): A Comprehensive Analysis of Real-World Asset Tokenization in Web3 This article delves into the Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), recognised by its ticker symbol $SHOPON, exploring its implications at the intersection of traditional finance and blockchain technology. As a part of Ondo Finance's tokenized securities platform, Shopify’s tokenized stock exemplifies advancements in democratizing access to global capital markets through innovative digital assets. Introduction and Overview of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), or $SHOPON, portrays a pivotal innovation in the realm of tokenized securities, allowing investors to gain economic exposure akin to directly owning shares of Shopify Inc. This token, developed under the umbrella of Ondo Finance, not only provides investors with the ability to hold digital representations of the company’s stock but also integrates features such as automatic reinvestment of dividends. This advancement represents a substantial shift in the landscape of decentralized finance (DeFi), linking conventional equity markets with blockchain solutions designed to enhance accessibility, transparency, and liquidity. By eliminating geographical barriers and enabling 24/7 trading capabilities, $SHOPON is positioned as a bridge connecting traditional financial instruments and the emerging Web3 ecosystem. What is Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), $SHOPON? The $SHOPON token serves as a digital manifestation of Shopify Inc.'s shares, engineered to provide a direct correlation to the underlying asset's performance. Through the utilization of blockchain technology, the token gives holders a mechanism to participate in the economic benefits associated with equity ownership, including capital appreciation and dividend distribution. The unique aspect of $SHOPON lies in its automatic dividend reinvestment mechanism, which allows returns to compound without necessitating active management by the investor. This feature inherently enhances its attractiveness as an investment vehicle, particularly for individuals seeking passive income growth alongside exposure to high-performing equities. The tokenization process is facilitated by the custody of actual Shopify shares through regulated intermediaries, ensuring that every $SHOPON token is verifiably backed by real equity. This structure empowers investors with the dual advantages of both traditional financial characteristics and the innovative benefits tied to blockchain technology. Who is the Creator of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo)? The creator of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), Nathan Allman, is an experienced figure in the finance sector, formerly associated with Goldman Sachs. His rich background includes significant expertise in digital asset development, bridging the gap between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies. Allman’s educational journey, marked by studies at Brown University, provided him with a deep understanding of economics and biology, equipping him with analytical skills that inform his strategic vision. In 2021, he founded Ondo Finance, committing to developing tokenized securities that meet institutional-grade standards while leveraging blockchain's transformative capabilities. Under Allman's leadership, Ondo Finance has focused on creating compliant and innovative financial products that empower a diverse investor base. Who are the Investors of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo)? The investment landscape surrounding Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) is notably robust, underpinned by significant institutional support. Primarily, Pantera Capital stands out as a strategic partner through the Ondo Catalyst initiative, a $250 million commitment aimed at accelerating the development of on-chain capital markets. This partnership not only signifies institutional confidence in the potential of tokenized assets but also reinforces Ondo Finance's operational capabilities and market positioning. The funding pathways have included earlier rounds that amassed millions in seed funding and further structural investments, solidifying relationships with both venture capital firms and private investors. Moreover, the financial framework is complemented by strategic partnerships with established financial institutions and technology companies, enhancing Ondo’s infrastructure and operational expertise. How Does Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), $SHOPON Work? At the core of $SHOPON's operational framework is a sophisticated system integrating traditional finance mechanisms with blockchain technology. The custody of actual Shopify shares ensures that token holders retain authentic economic exposure, safeguarding their investments in line with recognized legal structures. The smart contracts employed in managing $SHOPON handle various functions, including automatic dividend reinvestment and ownership transfer, offering instant settlement and increased liquidity, marking a significant departure from conventional trading systems plagued by multi-day settlement delays. By providing interoperability with other decentralized finance applications, $SHOPON empowers holders with potentially lucrative opportunities for advanced investment strategies, including lending and automated market making. This complex integration presents a unique value proposition, catering to both traditional and crypto-native investors. The innovative structure of $SHOPON also allows for real-time settlements and transactions documented on the blockchain, delivering unparalleled transparency and security—a major advancement over standard equity trading practices. Timeline of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) March 2021: Nathan Allman establishes Ondo Finance, initially focusing on decentralized finance yield optimization. August 2021: Completion of a $4 million seed funding round led by Pantera Capital. January 2023: Launch of initial tokenized treasury security products, laying the groundwork for future equity tokenization. July 2025: Announcement of the Ondo Catalyst initiative, a strategic investment program valued at $250 million, aimed at propelling the development of tokenization in capital markets. September 3, 2025: Launch of Ondo Global Markets featuring over 100 tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs, including $SHOPON. Technical Implementation and Blockchain Infrastructure Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) operates on a technical architectural framework that marries blockchain protocols with traditional financial custody arrangements. The ecosystem leverages Ethereum's smart contract capabilities, providing seamless transaction management while ensuring compliance with regulatory standards through established financial custodians. Central to this architecture are security measures and transparent transaction records that affirm the legitimacy of each tokenholder's economic stake. With automated features managed by intricate smart contracts, $SHOPON not only streamlines ownership transfers but also allows for the tactical reinvestment of dividends—a hallmark of modern investment strategies. Moreover, the incorporation of LayerZero technology facilitates cross-chain interoperability, making $SHOPON accessible across multiple blockchain environments while preserving its functional robustness. This forward-thinking technical design positions $SHOPON as an adaptable asset within the larger DeFi milieu. Regulatory Framework and Compliance Architecture $SHOPON's regulatory framework is built upon the meticulous navigation of existing financial regulations that govern securities. The custody arrangements for the underlying Shopify shares are managed by U.S.-regulated broker-dealers, ensuring compliance and protection for investors. By maintaining a separation between the blockchain tokenization process and traditional custody, $SHOPON adheres to legal requirements while offering innovative functionalities that challenge conventional constraints. This dual-layered compliance approach enhances investor confidence and underscores Ondo Finance's commitment to regulatory integrity. Notably, the availability of $SHOPON is tailored to international investors from regions such as Asia-Pacific, Europe, and Africa, as regulatory parameters in the U.S. and U.K. present challenges in accessing tokenized securities. Market Access and Global Distribution Strategy The distribution strategy of $SHOPON is keenly designed to optimize global access while conforming to regulatory standards. The platform aims to establish comprehensive coverage for eligible investors across multiple regions, effectively dismantling traditional barriers through the implementation of blockchain technology. Integration with various cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges also promotes user-friendliness and accessibility, establishing a streamlined experience for investors to manage their holdings. Moreover, the 24/7 trading capabilities afforded by the tokenized model allow participants to react promptly to market shifts, fundamentally transforming how global equities are accessed and traded. Technology Integration and Cross-Chain Functionality The remarkable technological underpinnings of $SHOPON propagate its multi-chain functionality, set to expand its reach beyond Ethereum to networks such as Solana and BNB Chain. Such cross-chain capabilities allow users flexibility when navigating between blockchains, concurrently leveraging distinct network attributes to optimize their trading experience. LayerZero serves as the backbone for ensuring decentralized transfers between networks while providing the requisite security and speed, quintessential for maintaining investor trust. This comprehensive interoperability illustrates $SHOPON's commitment to being a versatile, user-centric asset in the evolving investment landscape. Ecosystem Integration and DeFi Compatibility Incorporating $SHOPON into broader DeFi protocols signifies its potential beyond traditional stock ownership. Token holders can leverage their holdings for various sophisticated strategies and applications, enhancing investment returns and liquidity management. By establishing a presence in lending protocols and automated trading systems, $SHOPON effectively democratizes access to advanced financial strategies previously limited to institutional investors. Such integration contributes to a more competitive and dynamic financial landscape, where individual investors can capitalize on tools typically reserved for larger entities. Risk Management and Security Framework Security remains paramount in the operational infrastructure of $SHOPON. The tokenization framework employs multiple layers of protection—beginning with regulated custody of the underlying Shopify shares. The operational protocols establish rigorous auditing, key management, and transaction monitoring standards, thus safeguarding against potential vulnerabilities. Moreover, meticulous adherence to evolving regulatory requirements provides an extra layer of security, fortifying investor protections and institutional compliance. Market Impact and Industry Implications The introduction of Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo) heralds a transformative shift in how financial markets operate, emphasizing the potential of tokenized securities to reshape traditional investment paradigms. The successful integration of $SHOPON encapsulates the efficiencies inherent in blockchain technology and opens avenues for new user demographics previously barred from extensive market participation. The impact extends beyond the immediate benefits to token holders, indicating broader trends that may challenge the status quo of investment services, particularly in addressing geographic restrictions and operational costs typically associated with traditional brokerage platforms. Undeniably, $SHOPON encapsulates the potential for traditional institutions to innovate further, leveraging the increasing demand for seamless blockchain access to complement existing financial infrastructure. Future Development Roadmap and Strategic Vision As Ondo Finance looks forward, the trajectory of $SHOPON rests on ambitious goals aimed at broadening the spectrum of available tokenized assets significantly. Over the next few years, plans are in place to expand to more than 1,000 tokenized securities, further enhancing market participation and investment options for individuals worldwide. Continued integration with traditional financial actors, development of specialized institutional products, and enhancements in automated trading capabilities will ensure that $SHOPON maintains its position at the forefront of financial innovation. Regulatory collaboration will also remain a focal point, establishing a framework that not only supports the compliance requirements but also promotes a healthy environment for tokenized asset proliferation. Conclusion and Market Significance In summary, Shopify Tokenized Stock (Ondo), represented by the ticker $SHOPON, is more than merely a tokenized equity offering; it embodies the innovation possible when traditional finance collides with modern blockchain applications. With a robust technical architecture, a commitment to compliance, and a clear strategic vision, $SHOPON exemplifies the potential for tokenized assets to enhance liquidity, accessibility, and functionality in capital markets. As the global investment landscape evolves, the transformative implications of $SHOPON extend beyond individual investors to revolutionize how financial instruments are perceived, traded, and utilized within both traditional and decentralized frameworks.

3.5k Total ViewsPublished 2025.12.05Updated 2025.12.05

What is SHOPON

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