ETH虽说短期被质疑、长线来说依然看好、可以择机抄底

币界网Published on 2024-08-21Last updated on 2024-08-21

币界网报道：

空头观点

  • 在 Dencun 之后，盈利能力急剧下降，这种情况短期内看起来不会改变。

  • ETH 的市场契合度正在减弱。加密货币纯粹主义者希望拥有 BTC，普通投资者则被 $SOL 吸引，而 $TRX 正在捕获稳定币的转移。“一刀切”的方法不再适用。

  • L2 正在变得越来越分散。目前，正在跟踪 71 个 L2、20 个 L3，以及令人惊叹的 82 个即将推出的项目。这大大降低了用户体验，并成为广泛采用的重要障碍。与此同时，SOL 展现了单体链和生态系统的潜力。

  • DeFi 的实用性正受到质疑。许多项目本质上只是带有掠夺性代币经济学的梗。高流通量、低完全稀释市值的模式旨在从普通投资者那里提取尽可能多的价值，转移到风险投资者的口袋中。

  • ETH ETF 的表现乏善可陈。

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以太坊 ETF 的影响分析

比特币 ETF 为许多新买家打开了在其投资组合中配置比特币的机会。而 ETH ETF 的影响则不那么明确。

  • ETH 的市场情绪处于历史低点。结合 ETHBTC 和 SOLETH 交易对的低迷表现，我们可能会看到死亡螺旋和链上总锁仓价值 (TVL) 的外流。

  • 我们已经被条件反射地认为 ETH 是“被选中的” L1，但在如此新兴的行业中，这种观点并不一定成立。

  • 从机构和政治的角度来看，BTC 是主要焦点。像迈克尔·塞勒这样的纯粹主义者正在倡导 BTC 作为最坚硬的货币形式，而这种叙述在 ETH 中并不存在。ETH 正在努力寻找类似的“支持者”。

多头论点

  • ETH 和 L2 的交易量达到了历史新高，而交易价格则接近低点。以太坊成功地进行了扩展，已经准备好迎接大众的到来。

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  • ETH 的总锁仓价值 (TVL) 是其最近竞争对手的 10 倍（不包括 L2）。L2 的 TVL 仍然锁定在以太坊生态系统中，这部分价值最终应该会归属于 ETH 持有者。

  • ETH 依然是主要的机构级链，经过多年的考验，开发者活动也处于最高水平。许多在这个领域最聪明的头脑正在共同制定 ETH 的发展路线图。任何机构的接入都会在 ETH 上进行，无论是现实资产 (RWAs) 的链上代币化、预测市场等。

  • ETH 今年的表现不佳与从 DeFi 转向 meme 的趋势相吻合。然而，叙述似乎正在发生变化。

DeFi 真的回来了？

在被其他叙述边缘化之后，DeFi 复苏的迹象正在显现。

  • ETH 今年继续找到杀手级应用，这种情况只会继续，等到下一个“DeFi”显现时，价格已经反映了现实——市场是前瞻性的。

  • 正在开发的多种互操作性解决方案——在几年内，我们可能几乎不需要知道我们连接的是哪个链。

  • ETH ETF 的推出是在与比特币完全不同的市场环境中进行的，且遭遇了糟糕的价格表现，这让潜在投资者感到失望。目前，政治和机构的关注主要集中在 $BTC 上，但随着比特币被越来越多的人接受，大家会开始问：“接下来是什么？” $ETH 无疑是这个问题的显而易见的答案。

  • 在历史低点（ATL）时的市场情绪为投资者创造了机会——价格的波动推动了市场叙述。随着投机者开始抄底，以上所有因素都逐渐明朗，导致价格向上反弹。

结论

多空双方都有如此强有力的论据，这可能会导致价格在任一方向上产生较大的波动。尽管作为 ETH 持有者我有一定的偏见，但我认为从长远来看，多头论点更加引人注目，特别是在经历了今年的价格波动之后。

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