Cycle Capital(20240819):一周链上数据跟踪

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-20Last updated on 2024-08-20

Abstract

BTC.D达到本轮行情以来的新高,触碰日线压力位,可能出现日线级别的回调,如果BTC能够维持较为温和的震荡,山寨有日线级别的outperform BTC的机会。

Cycle Capital(20240819):一周链上数据跟踪

稳定币总量

尽管近期市场交易低迷,情绪不高,但是场内稳定币总量依然在缓慢积累,现达到本轮周期以来最高水平,约为 1680 亿美元。

Cycle Capital(20240819):一周链上数据跟踪

BTC.D 新高,触碰日线压力位

BTC.D 达到本轮行情以来的新高,触碰日线压力位,可能出现日线级别的回调。如果 BTC 能够维持较为温和的震荡,山寨有日线级别的 outperform BTC 的机会。

Cycle Capital(20240819):一周链上数据跟踪

CME 持仓

CME BTC 空头平仓出现拐头,总体来看平仓还是低于预期,套利资金会在降息后逐步退出。

Cycle Capital(20240819):一周链上数据跟踪

Bitfinex 持仓

Bitfinex 多头头寸近期没有动作,在 8 月 5 号大跌后并没有明显减仓,但也没有增加持仓,整体在持仓待涨同时控制风险的状态。

Cycle Capital(20240819):一周链上数据跟踪

BTC 长期持有者积累增速加快

BTC 长期持有者在 2024 年 4 月下跌之后停止了抛售, 5 – 6 月缓慢积累, 7 月之后,积累的速度加快。长期持有者在该震荡区域内仍然在积累筹码。

Cycle Capital(20240819):一周链上数据跟踪

短期持有者 MVRV 达到 2023 年以来最低值

短期持有者 MVRV 在 8 月 5 日的下跌中达到 0.84 ,属于 2023 年初以来最低水平。从中长期来看,这里属于低吸建仓的位置。

参考短期持有者 MVRV,还可以进一步测算当前情况下极端回撤会到什么位置。2020 年至今,STH-MVRV 的最低值约为 0.6 ,一共发生了 2 次,分别是 2020 年 3 月 12 日新冠疫情引发的全球暴跌,以及 2022 年 5 月-6 月美国加息背景下三箭资本破产引发的暴跌。2021 年牛市中,STH-MVRV 的最低值约为 0.67 ,发生在 519 中国政府清退挖矿政策发布之后。

按照目前价格,STH-MVRV= 0.6 的话,BTC 价格约为 38000 美元,STH-MVRV= 0.67 的话,BTC 价格约为 43000 。新冠疫情属于关乎全球生死存亡的黑天鹅,认为在本轮行情中出现的概率极低,因此,BTC 价格不会到达 38000 的位置。如果美国经济严重衰退,则可能出现与 519 强度相当的下跌。

Cycle Capital(20240819):一周链上数据跟踪

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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