现在的市场究竟是买主流？买山寨？还是买土狗？

币界网Published on 2024-08-13Last updated on 2024-08-13

币界网报道：

2024 是加密行业迈向成熟合规里程碑式的一年，BTC 与 ETH 的现货 ETF 相继在美国股市推出，意味着加密行业踏入了世界主流市场，带来了新的持有者群体，各种传统金融行业的大型基金将逐步成为加密市场的庄家。

同时鉴于合规的因素，行业在迈入成熟阶段也多了越来越多的限制，包括许多 POS 公链代币是否是未注册证券的疑虑，以及巨头交易所皆牵涉到违法洗钱等等争议，项目方在创办项目的自由度上多了几层枷锁。

v2-e841b9ee1e4a17a3e1c93d711f6037a5_720w.webp

另一方面，加密市场也进入了越来越极端的两面，第一面是主流币们的逐步稳定上涨，BTC受到圈外资本的追逐，在对比总体加密货币占有率上一路向上。尽管 ETH 在 ETF 推出后不断下跌为人诟病，但仍是圈内认同度最高的资产之一。SOL 则是本轮的超级新星，在历经 FTX 倒台后进行了一大批筹码换手，因此也成为了涨幅最为亮点的主流币。

上一轮 2021 牛市表现最佳的山寨币们则是惨不忍睹，包括各种 L1 ETH Killer 以及 Defi 代币，对比 2024 年初大多都是呈现跌幅状态。除了上一轮的山寨币外，本轮的山寨币表现也同样萎靡，以币安 2024 上新的代币表现来看，年初至今 -50％ 腰斩的币种不胜枚举。以往币安新币都是散户玩家们博取超额收益的重点关注，如今却成为了玩家们的重灾区。

v2-4768b6ad43bc32e27d816c9ec2916711_720w.webp

而在光谱的另一面，散户们的主战场从功能技术吹得天花乱坠的山寨币们转移到可爱猫猫狗狗头像的迷因币上，不用研究项目技术、代币模型、投资背景或代币解锁等等。取而代之的技能则是加入社区，观察情绪，研究链上数据等等技能。

新进玩家们的投资思维更看重的是注意力经济，就如同 Web 2 正在进行的互联网范式转变，从硬核的长文转移到各种博人眼球的短视频，对应 Web 3 就是山寨币与迷因币的关系。

估值与筹码分布

山寨币表现不佳的另一大主因是源自错误的估值与浮报的融资金额。许多所谓的「天王级」项目在融资阶段便获得了几十亿美元的天价估值。尽管有真实创新技术，但也早在一级市场融资阶段便已完成价值发现，待上线交易所后变成「天亡级」项目，代币价格不断下跌。而浮报融资金额更是许多垃圾山寨币的共同点，机构与项目方沆瀣一气，通过新闻稿透露出夸张的融资金额，实际上并没有真实的资金投入，目的只是为了通过消息让散户关注。

而老一轮的山寨币面临的则是解锁周期到来带来的源源不断的抛压，许多上一轮表现良好的代币通过高 FDV 低 MC 的方式拉盘，而如今随着解锁日期的接近，滑梯式的走势是唯一宿命。

相较之下，迷因币通常没有风险投资，不用担心后续的解锁抛压，加上迷因币起点低并不存在错误估值。但在筹码分布上，迷因币与山寨币并无不同，都存在着许多操盘的痕迹，差别仅在于操盘是由风投机构或是 KOL 主导。但就难易度上来说，迷因币散户更容易在低价阶段取得筹码。

买山寨买meme?

本轮的山寨币如此颓势的另一个主因是无法推出能够获得新进用户流量的新概念。上一轮牛市从 Defi → NFT → GameFi 全都是带给耳目一新的全新思维，简单但又充满新意，散户不仅看得懂、玩得明白、也用得到。而这一轮兴起的概念从 RWA → Depin → AI 都是充斥着高大上的各种技术概念，但基本上散户玩家根本用不上，因此便难以培养社区共识。

总结来说，我个人的投资思维也逐渐从山寨币拥护者转向只关注主流币 BTC/ETH/SOL 与迷因币。缺乏用户是各种山寨币的最大痛点，新公链一个接着一个，模组化的基建项目也越来越多，但是在没有用户基础的情况下，这些项目基本都是死亡螺旋。

所以对于不想折腾的散户来说，买点以太、SOL就行了，小资金去冲冲土狗搏一搏收益。

后期会给大家带来其他赛道的龙头项目分析。感兴趣的可以点个关注。我也会不定期整理一些前沿资询和项目点评，欢迎各位志同道合的币圈人一起来探索。有问题可以评论提问或者私

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

Research Report Analysis: Morgan Stanley Details SanDisk SNDK, The Truth About Cloud Data Center Pricing Power and AI Inference Benefits

Morgan Stanley raised its price target for SanDisk (SNDK) from $1100 to $1750 on June 22, maintaining an Overweight rating. The upgrade is driven by AI inference demand reshaping the NAND market, particularly for KV Cache and context window storage in cloud data centers. These cloud clients exhibit price inelasticity and sign long-term contracts, granting SanDisk significant pricing power. SanDisk's New Business Model (NBM) agreements, covering over one-third of FY27 bit shipments with 3-5 year terms and fixed price/price collar structures, are crucial. They are projected to sustain gross margins around 80% even at floor prices, providing a buffer against cyclical downturns. Morgan Stanley forecasts gross margins to surge from 30.3% in FY25 to 86.7% in FY27e. With NAND supply expected to remain tight into 2026/2027 and cloud/data centers becoming the largest end-market, SanDisk holds supply-side pricing power. The company targets 15-19% bit growth via technology transitions, not capacity expansion. Revenue is projected to grow ~6.6x from FY25 to FY27, with EPS rising from $2.74 to $14.73, driven by high-margin cloud business. Key upside catalysts include faster enterprise SSD adoption and edge AI growth. Downside risks involve slower industry growth, competitor capex increases, market share loss, and competition from Chinese players like YMTC. The investment thesis rests on AI-driven structural demand, NBM's margin protection, and sustained supply tightness. The $1750 target implies ~28x FY27e P/E.

marsbit6m ago

Research Report Analysis: Morgan Stanley Details SanDisk SNDK, The Truth About Cloud Data Center Pricing Power and AI Inference Benefits

marsbit6m ago

8.5 Million USDT Flees Overnight: Can High-Yield Stablecoin Vaults Still Be Safely Deposited?

$8.5M USDT Exodus Triggers High-Yield Stablecoin Vault Shutdown Fears of a liquidity crunch following a third-party auditor's withdrawal from competitor MainStreet triggered over $8.5 million in user withdrawals from Altura's stablecoin vault in 24 hours, forcing it to begin an orderly wind-down. Altura clarified it holds no MainStreet assets, indicating the crisis stemmed from a sector-wide loss of confidence rather than direct asset contagion. The incident highlights a critical vulnerability in high-yield stablecoin products: a mismatch between user expectations for instant redemptions and the illiquid, long-duration nature of underlying investments like private credit and real-world assets (RWA). Even without actual losses, the mere prospect of being last in line for repayment can spark a debilitating bank run. The key lesson is that operational liquidity risk and market confidence are decisive factors. Tools like reserve audits, intended to reduce uncertainty, can backfire if their withdrawal accelerates panic faster than assurances can spread. The industry must now observe how Altura manages its asset liquidation and user reimbursements, a process that will test the feasibility of offering DeFi-native speeds on traditionally illiquid yield strategies.

Foresight News34m ago

8.5 Million USDT Flees Overnight: Can High-Yield Stablecoin Vaults Still Be Safely Deposited?

Foresight News34m ago

A Threefold Performance Leap! NEAR Achieves 200ms Physical Block Time Limit with SPICE

NEAR's core development team, Near One, has announced its next major protocol evolution: SPICE (Separation of Consensus and Execution). Currently in development, SPICE represents the most significant upgrade before the full implementation of Nightshade 3.0. Its core innovation is decoupling the consensus layer, responsible for ordering transactions, from the execution layer, which processes them. This allows the consensus layer to run at full speed without waiting for transaction execution to complete. Once deployed, SPICE is projected to triple NEAR's block production speed, achieving a 200ms block time, which is considered the physical limit due to the speed of light and network latency. This leap will dramatically reduce transaction latency and finality, with transactions confirming in roughly 0.4 seconds—faster than a typical card payment. The upgrade also enables more complex, long-running transactions and significantly improves user experience for applications like NEAR Intents and near.com. Beyond raw speed, SPICE enhances network scalability and security. It enables deeper parallelism, efficiently distributing workload across shards and improving resource utilization. The simpler block structure and lighter contracts also facilitate formal verification and security auditing. Furthermore, SPICE lays the critical groundwork for future Nightshade 3.0 features, most notably atomic cross-shard transactions, which would simplify complex contract logic and eliminate development hurdles caused by asynchronous execution. The Near One team is actively developing SPICE, targeting deployment in the coming months.

Foresight News1h ago

A Threefold Performance Leap! NEAR Achieves 200ms Physical Block Time Limit with SPICE

Foresight News1h ago

TechFlow Intelligence Agency: AMD Restores Consumer CPU Memory Encryption Function, South Korean Chip Stocks Plunge 10% Triggering Market Turmoil

The technology sector experienced significant volatility, with a sharp decline in chip stocks. South Korea's KOSPI index plummeted nearly 10%, led by major players like Samsung and SK Hynix, indicating a potential sentiment shift in the AI hardware frenzy. AMD reversed a prior decision by reinstating memory encryption features in its consumer CPUs following user privacy concerns. In the AI software realm, user dissatisfaction is growing. Cursor IDE users are canceling subscriptions, citing declining code completion quality and slower responses. OpenAI's new Mac ChatGPT client is reportedly plagued by frequent crashes. Meanwhile, the community eagerly anticipates the release of DeepSeek's V4.1 model. Elsewhere, Huawei pledged to underwrite liability for its intelligent driving system while raising its premium software package price. Apple fixed a critical eavesdropping vulnerability in Beats Studio Buds. In finance, markets saw a broad "Black Tuesday," with gold prices falling and tech stocks like SpaceX and Micron dropping significantly. Analysts warn of a potential AI bubble. The overarching theme suggests the AI narrative is transitioning from initial hype to a phase demanding proven, stable value.

marsbit1h ago

TechFlow Intelligence Agency: AMD Restores Consumer CPU Memory Encryption Function, South Korean Chip Stocks Plunge 10% Triggering Market Turmoil

marsbit1h ago

Donald Trump’s 2031 Post-Quantum Security Mandate Sparks Urgent Crypto Upgrade Efforts

U.S. President Donald Trump has issued executive orders mandating federal agencies to upgrade their cryptographic systems to quantum-resistant technologies. Key deadlines include enhancing critical systems by December 2030 and migrating all federal digital signature infrastructure to post-quantum standards by December 2031. The move addresses "harvest now, decrypt later" threats, where encrypted data could be decrypted by future quantum computers. The directive has spurred urgency in the crypto and blockchain industry, which relies heavily on elliptic curve cryptography vulnerable to quantum attacks. Recent advancements, like those from Google Quantum AI, have reduced the resources needed for such attacks. In response, projects like Ethereum, Algorand, and Ripple are developing or implementing quantum-resistant signature schemes and migration plans. The mandate also highlights risks to Bitcoin, where exposed public keys in legacy addresses could be targeted. Overall, the orders accelerate a broader shift toward post-quantum security across both government and private sectors.

TheNewsCrypto1h ago

Donald Trump’s 2031 Post-Quantum Security Mandate Sparks Urgent Crypto Upgrade Efforts

TheNewsCrypto1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

433 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions