ETH是否被高估了？

marsbitPublished on 2024-08-09Last updated on 2024-08-09

我可能会因为说这句话而被指责，但我还是会说这句话......

因此，如果您在推出时购买了 $ETH 现货 ETF，那么您现在的损失就约为 25%。

我相信，从根本上来说，它的估值仍然过高。

我的反向想法，请听我说

销毁

1）$ETH 的价值源自两个关键因素：

- 稀缺性，与比特币类似

- 未来回报的潜力。

然而，合并后的以太坊网络引入了一些令人担忧的发展，对这些价值驱动因素提出了质疑。

2）首先，合并使 $ETH 通货紧缩。但更重要的是，它证明了以太坊基金会 (EF) 积极管理代币供应的能力。

这破坏了稀缺性的叙述，因为 EF 已表现出干预以太坊货币政策的意愿。

即使当前的货币体系被认为更为有利（我对此表示怀疑），它在未来仍可能发生变化，而以太坊基金会已经表现出适应的意愿。因此，ETH 仍然稀缺，直到它不再稀缺为止。

3）使这一问题更加复杂的是，最近的 Dencun 升级导致以太坊的交易费用大幅下降——仅 2022 年第二季度就下降了 50% 以上。虽然第 2 层解决方案活动的增加可能有助于抵消部分收入下降，但目前尚不清楚这是否能完全弥补主网费用的减少。

4）以太坊处境岌岌可危。L1 网络上的高额费用迫使许多项目转向替代链，迫使以太坊基金会大幅降低费用，尤其是在第 2 层解决方案上。

但这种费用降低直接限制了以太币的价值，因为其价值主要取决于这些费用。

要使 $ETH 的价值增加，链上活动和第 2 层解决方案必须升级。然而，以极低的费用（这是扩展所必需的）实现这一点是一项重大挑战。从本质上讲，ETH 的价值可能会保持较低水平，因为低价值和可扩展性是相互关联的先决条件。

5）比特币 ETF 在几周内吸引了数十亿美元的资金，并不意味着以太坊 ETF 也会如此。传统​​金融投资者需要时间来适应新的投资产品，因此我认为以太坊不会像比特币 ETF 那样立即取得成功。

比特币被视为数字黄金，而以太坊被视为去中心化的世界计算机。这是截然不同的叙述，TradFi 投资者需要时间来理解以太坊的独特价值主张。

然而，我提出的这种观点与市场定价理论不同。在这种情况下，市场可能会因为 ETF 或投机性未来潜力等外部因素而将 ETH 定价更高。然而，从长远来看，我预计市场价格将与其内在价值更加接近。

另外，截止 2024 年 8 月 5 日，以太坊网络自年初以来共计销毁了 465,657 个 ETH。2021年 6 月EIP-1559实施后，共计销毁了 436 万个 ETH。 

销毁

与此同时，2024 年第二季度销毁了 107,725 个 ETH，较第一季度下降了 -67.7%。2024 年第一季度销毁了 333,555 个 ETH。 

2024 年 7 月，销毁了 17,114 个 ETH，创下 2024 年月度历史新低，较 6 月下降了 -35.0%。与此同时，2024 年 3 月销毁了 147,620 个 ETH，创下 2024 年月度历史新高。然而，这一数字与 2022 年 1 月（上一轮牛市高峰期）销毁的 398,061 个 ETH 的历史最高值相差甚远。  

以太坊是通货膨胀还是通货紧缩？

尽管在 2022 年第四季度至 2024 年第一季度期间以太坊处于通货紧缩状态，但现在以太坊处于通货膨胀状态。ETH 的发行量超过了销毁量，自 2024 年初以来，以太坊网络新增了 540,958 个 ETH。与此同时，以太坊已被销毁 465,657 个 ETH，导致2024 年以太坊网络净增 75,301 个 ETH。 

从季度来看，2024 年第一季度是通货紧缩的，共发行了 220,454 个 ETH，销毁了 333,555 个 ETH。这导致从以太坊供应中移除了 113,100 个 ETH。然而，随着整个 2024 年第二季度网络活动的下降，以太坊开始出现通货膨胀。整个季度，共发行了 228,543 个 ETH，销毁了 107,725 个 ETH，区块链中增加了 120,818 个 ETH。

什么销毁了最多的 ETH？

Uniswap仍然是 ETH 的最大销毁者，2024 年共销毁了 71,915 个 ETH；2024 年 7 月，Uniswap 共销毁了 2,470 个 ETH。虽然 Uniswap 一直是 ETH 销毁的主导者，但 ETH 销毁量急剧下降。其销毁率环比下降 -72.4%，从第一季度的 54,413 个 ETH 下降至第二季度的 15,031 个 ETH。排名前十的 ETH 销毁者占 2022 年销毁总量的 39.2%。

销毁

ETH 转账是 ETH 销毁的第二大贡献者，今年迄今已销毁 33,538 ETH。第一季度，ETH 转账销毁了 25,668 ETH，第二季度降至 6,838 ETH，环比下降 -73.4%。

Tether（USDT）是第三大销毁者，2024 年销毁了 23,332 ETH。与 Uniswap 和 ETH 转账一样，其销毁率从第一季度的 17,480 ETH 环比下降 -70.9% 至第二季度的 5,091 ETH。 

第四大销毁贡献者是 Banana Gun ( BANANA )，销毁了 11,060 ETH。Telegram交易机器人在第二季度销毁了 2,150 ETH，较第一季度（8,364 ETH）下降 74.3%。其支持的区块链上的 DEX 交易下滑影响了其销毁率。排名前十的其余协议各自销毁了不到 10,000 ETH。 

顶级 ETH 销毁者（2024 年）

2024 年 1 月 1 日至 2024 年 8 月 5 日期间，十大 ETH 销毁者排名如下：

销毁

方法论

该研究使用 Dune Analytics 和 Etherscan 从 2024 年 1 月 1 日到 2024 年 8 月 5 日的数据，研究了 2024 年以太坊 (ETH) 的发行和销毁量。

该研究还调查了销毁 ETH 最多的十大方法：Uniswap、ETH Transfers、Tether、Maestro、1inch、MetaMask、Circle USD、MEV Bots 和 Scroll。

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