交易员Peter Brandt发布比特币警报，预测比特币跌破40000美元的可能性为50%——时间线如下

币界网Published on 2024-08-09Last updated on 2024-08-09

币界网报道：

经验丰富的交易员Peter Brandt警告称，比特币（BTC）在本周期暴跌至40000美元以下的可能性为50%。

Brandt告诉他的734000名粉丝，比特币可能在明年年底前从当前价值暴跌35%以上。

“我相信，在减半的最后一半结束之前，BTC有50%的机会访问40000美元以下。”

来源：彼得·勃兰特/X

Brandt还表示，比特币今年的价格走势可能会形成一个倒直角的扩大三角形，类似于2020年新冠肺炎大流行开始时比特币的黑天鹅事件。这种模式也被称为下降加宽楔形，如果将较低的趋势线作为支撑，随着时间的推移，这可能会导致看涨逆转。

“倒置的直角加宽三角形是由Richard W.Schabacker在其1934年的著作《技术分析和股市利润》中创造的。图中还显示了比特币的图表。虽然上限不是水平的，但我仍然认为两者匹配得很好。”

来源：彼得·勃兰特/X

在撰写本文时，比特币的交易价格为61306美元，在过去24小时内上涨了10.7%。

接下来，Brandt分享了一张图表，显示智能合约平台Solana（SOL）将在未来几个月内决定性地跑赢其竞争对手以太坊（SOL/ETH），并指出由于两个网络之间的关键差异，这一趋势可能会持续下去。

“在SOL和ETH之间的战斗中，不可避免地会有一个明显的赢家。

    ETH：繁琐、昂贵、有缺陷，声称是去中心化的，其实不然。SOL：用户友好，基础扎实。

SOL应该在未来几个月内获得100%的ETH。”

来源：彼得·勃兰特/X

在撰写本文时，SOL/ETH的交易价格为0.06059 BTC（160美元），在过去24小时内略有下降。

不要错过任何节拍-订阅以直接将电子邮件提醒发送到您的收件箱

检查价格操作

在X、Facebook和Telegram上关注我们

冲浪每日Hodl混合

生成的图像：Midjourney

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE
jst
JUSTJST

Related Reads

Litecoin ETF’s Slow Start Shows Altcoin Funds Still Face A Demand Test

The Canary Capital spot Litecoin ETF (LTCC) has had a slow start, with reported inflows of around $9.3 million since launch and assets under management at a lower level. This highlights the significant gap in institutional demand compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. While Litecoin has an established history, its more modest narrative around payments and longevity hasn't yet made it a must-own institutional product. The case demonstrates that regulatory approval alone does not guarantee strong investor allocation. For the broader altcoin ETF thesis, future products may see different demand, but Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to remain the primary institutional channels for the foreseeable future.

bitcoinist35m ago

Litecoin ETF’s Slow Start Shows Altcoin Funds Still Face A Demand Test

bitcoinist35m ago

The Entire Internet Hails Noam's Joining, But OpenAI's Loss Bill Just Got Thicker

While the AI community celebrates Noam Shazeer, co-author of the "Attention Is All You Need" paper, joining OpenAI as Head of Architectural Research, the company's audited financials reveal a starkly different reality. In 2025, OpenAI reported $13.07 billion in revenue but a massive $20.92 billion operating loss. Even excluding a one-time accounting charge, the cash burn is severe, with $3.7 billion consumed in Q1 2026 alone. This high-profile hiring occurs against a backdrop of significant internal research talent drain, with key founders and researchers departing as the company's focus shifts from exploratory research to product iteration. Meanwhile, OpenAI's fundamental business model faces a deep crisis. It paid Microsoft $10.59 billion for compute in 2025, while its vast user base of 9 billion weekly actives includes only 50 million paying customers, making growth a direct driver of escalating costs. The article argues Shazeer's recruitment is less about technical necessity and more about crafting a compelling narrative for OpenAI's upcoming IPO, aiming to justify a rumored $1 trillion valuation to future public market investors. It contrasts OpenAI's strategy with Anthropic's reported path to profitability, which relies on a strong enterprise customer base and cost control, rather than star-powered narratives. Ultimately, the piece concludes that while Shazeer's architectural work may take 1-2 years to materialize, OpenAI's financial clock is ticking much faster, with its massive losses undercutting the celebratory headlines.

marsbit40m ago

The Entire Internet Hails Noam's Joining, But OpenAI's Loss Bill Just Got Thicker

marsbit40m ago

To 'Own' or 'Rent' Intelligence? The New Question for AI Startups

The shutdown of Mythos has prompted a fundamental question for AI startups: is your intelligence "rented" or "owned"? While using frontier model APIs allows for rapid prototyping, it cedes control over your core capabilities to external providers, whose decisions on pricing, rules, or even shutdowns can jeopardize your business. The critical issue isn't just cost, but control and ownership. The lesson isn't to abandon frontier models, but to build upon them. "Owning" intelligence means starting with a powerful open-source model and systematically shaping it with your unique assets: your proprietary data, workflows, domain expertise, edge cases, and evaluation standards. Over time, this creates a company-specific asset that reflects your real work. The future of AI isn't a single, dominant model. There will be multiple "frontiers": general-purpose frontier models, company-specific models fine-tuned on proprietary knowledge, specialized vertical models, and routing systems that orchestrate multiple models. The winning companies will be those that transform intelligence into their own unique, controlled asset, ensuring no one can pull the floor from under their product.

marsbit59m ago

To 'Own' or 'Rent' Intelligence? The New Question for AI Startups

marsbit59m ago

Market Trend (June 19): US-Iran Deal Drives Out Geopolitical Premium; Chip Stocks Soar to New Highs; Energy Sector Leads Declines

U.S. Market Trends (June 19): U.S.-Iran Deal Eases Tensions, Chip Stocks Soar, Energy Sector Leads Declines. U.S. stocks rallied on Thursday as the signing of a temporary U.S.-Iran deal in Geneva de-escalated Middle East tensions, with Saudi oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical relief helped markets recover from recent Fed-driven volatility. The S&P 500 rose over 1%, the Nasdaq gained nearly 2%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another record high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged over 6% to a historic peak. Chip stocks were the standout performers. Reports of an Apple-Intel design and foundry deal for certain products, alongside mentions of potential Nvidia and SpaceX collaborations with Intel, propelled the sector. Intel surged ~10.5%, while memory chip makers like Micron also saw significant gains, highlighting sustained confidence in long-term AI capital expenditure. In contrast, the energy sector was the day's sole loser, with the S&P 500 energy sub-index declining as WTI crude fell ~2% to around $74.29/barrel. The reopening of key shipping routes erased prior geopolitical risk premiums. SpaceX extended losses for a second day on news of a potential large bond offering. Market volatility (VIX) dropped sharply, indicating a swift reversal of post-Fed jitters. Treasury yields dipped slightly but remained elevated. The focus now shifts to upcoming economic data, including next week's PCE inflation report and Micron's earnings, which will serve as a key test for the AI trade's durability.

marsbit1h ago

Market Trend (June 19): US-Iran Deal Drives Out Geopolitical Premium; Chip Stocks Soar to New Highs; Energy Sector Leads Declines

marsbit1h ago

Will MicroStrategy Fall Into a Death Spiral? How Will the Macro Outlook Evolve in the Second Half of the Year?

**Summary:** The discussion centers on recent Bitcoin price declines and the evolving financial strategy of MicroStrategy (MSTR). The core argument is that the primary pressure is not from one-off Bitcoin sales by MSTR, but from the market's new expectation that MSTR may need to engage in *sustained, small-scale* Bitcoin sales to cover cash flow obligations for its growing portfolio of preferred shares and debt instruments (like STRC). This shift is driven by its stated goal of maintaining "bitcoins per share neutrality." The market is now testing whether it can absorb this potential ongoing selling pressure without entering a severe "death spiral" with Bitcoin's price. A resolution may involve MSTR softening its approach to avoid damaging both its stock and Bitcoin. The conversation then explores the parallel rise of AI-related stocks. The guest posits that AI is fundamentally restructuring labor, with "tokens" (representing access to AI models/compute) becoming a new form of capital and a substitute for human execution. This drives corporate efficiency and profits, benefiting upstream hardware providers (semiconductors, data centers), which explains the sustained rally. This represents the early stages of a "machine economy." Regarding crypto exchanges offering US stock trading, this is seen as a natural evolution. With few crypto-native assets generating lasting value, exchanges are pivoting to distribute valuable real-world assets (RWAs). This doesn't necessarily harm crypto's long-term prospects, as blockchain infrastructure may become crucial for future machine-to-machine economies. The analysis concludes that the era of rampant altcoin speculation is likely over, heavily damaged by the liquidity shock of the "1011" event (likely referring to a major market crash). Meme-driven capital has largely migrated to US equities. Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainty is rising due to potential large IPOs (e.g., SpaceX) and the US elections. While short-term market corrections are possible, the long-term trends of AI-driven productivity gains and the maturation of blockchain towards real-world utility and institutional adoption remain intact.

marsbit1h ago

Will MicroStrategy Fall Into a Death Spiral? How Will the Macro Outlook Evolve in the Second Half of the Year?

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

394 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions