Matrixport投研：BTC处于超卖状态，复苏行情曙光将近

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-08-09Last updated on 2024-08-09

Abstract

美国下周将发布通胀数据，比特币可能将迎来复苏。

Matrixport 研究院最新研究表示，

  • 风险资产持续受宏观经济影响，通胀数据或影响近期市场

  • 不确定性较大时期，或可投资期权平衡资产配置

  • 美国大选局势尚不明朗，利好兑现待定

风险资产持续受宏观经济影响，通胀数据或影响近期市场

目前 BTC 价格处于超卖状态，过去这种情形发生后通常会迎来反弹，而即将发布的通胀数据或将促进市场乐观情绪。

当前，风险资产受宏观经济因素影响依然较大，近期对经济增长和就业市场的担忧成为了主要影响因素。美国下周将发布通胀数据，如果通胀率下降，尤其是若能降至 3.0% 以下，交易者仍将作出积极响应，BTC 可能将迎来复苏。

不确定性较大时期，或可投资期权平衡资产配置

Matrix on Target 去年也建议过投资低波动时期具有低价优势的期权。通过便宜的看跌期权或用最少的风险资本买入看涨期权来保护投资组合，可以很好地在不确定性时期降低 BTC 敞口风险。和去年一样，今年 30 日实际波动率在大幅升高前曾一度低至 25% 左右。

8 月交易量和流动性都将下降，从而导致回报率较低。周一出现的 18% 大跳水也印证了上周报告中提及的“近期比特币价格已经开始势头减弱，再加上即将到来的疲弱时期，充满挑战的交易环境可能还将持续数周。”

美国大选局势尚不明朗，利好兑现待定

从目前形势来看，特朗普很可能将赢得 2024 美国总统大选，但哈里斯接棒拜登后对共和党造成了打击。哈里斯民调目前领先特朗普， 7 月 21 日的交接棒又恰逢 BTC 反弹乏力，BTC 交易者受影响较大。

结语

投资者应密切关注交易者是否在尝试抄底。上周 Circle 稳定币出现大量资金流出，本周大量资金流入可能是抄底的信号。相对强弱指数（RSI）处于 30% ，可能出现买入机会，这与 2024 年 6 月的情形相似。在 BTC 牛市，虽然可能出现盘整，但 RSI 低于 30% 的情况很少见。

上述部分观点来自 Matrix on Target, 与我们联系获取 Matrix on Target 完整报告。

免责声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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