加密货币跌完了吗?分析师:空头平仓后或将看到价格急剧上涨

币界网Published on 2024-08-07Last updated on 2024-08-07

币界网报道:

本周早些时候,主要加密货币经历了一次大幅抛售,比特币在周一一度跌破5万美元,创下六个月来的新低,随后在周三反弹至约5.6万美元。不过,比特币仍比3月创下的历史最高点73,798美元低了24%。

智通财经APP获悉,GSR的联合创始人兼联席首席执行官Rich Rosenblum表示,这次加密货币的抛售部分原因是由于不同金融市场中几笔“套息交易”的平仓。他预计比特币将出现大幅反弹,但时间取决于交易者何时完成这些交易的退出。

套息交易是指投资者通过持有或携带资产(如货币或商品)在一段时间内产生收益。这在货币市场中最为常见,交易者借入低利率国家的货币并投资于高利率国家的货币。

Rosenblum指出,这类似于2020年3月美国新冠疫情初期的情况,当时一些以加密货币为副业的对冲基金在其他资产交易中面临追加保证金的要求,即银行要求提供更多的抵押品。基金为了筹集现金以履行这些义务,选择清算其加密货币头寸。他补充道:“我们确实认为在某个时候,我们会看到加密货币价格的急剧上涨,但首先我们需要让空头平仓。”

套息交易

Rosenblum观察到,传统资产中两种流行的交易正在平仓,它们分别是日元套息交易和短波动率交易。

多年来,交易者一直借入低利率国家的货币,并将其兑换为高利率国家的货币以获取利润。由于日本的超低利率,日元一直是最受欢迎的融资货币之一。

然而,情况已经发生变化,因为日本央行上周将其关键利率提高至约0.25%。自那以后,日元对美元汇率上涨了超过7%。许多套息交易者被要求追加保证金,不得不买入日元以平仓,这推高了日元,导致更多的追加保证金要求。

摩根大通的分析师表示,日元套息交易的平仓仅完成了一半。

与此同时,周一芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX,恐慌指数)的突然飙升让那些押注该指数短期期货下跌的交易者感到不安。

自2020年以来,押注VIX下跌的策略为交易者带来了稳定的回报。然而,当VIX在周一短暂跳升至65以上时,这一策略发生了变化——这一超过180%的涨幅反映了该指数有史以来最大的日内涨幅,根据道琼斯市场数据,它最终收于38.57,为2020年10月以来的最高收盘点,单日涨幅为64.9%。随后,VIX在周二回落至约24.40。

在加密货币领域内,也出现了套息交易的平仓,一些交易者被迫解押他们的以太坊、Solana和其他主要加密货币代币,Rosenblum指出。质押是一种投资者锁定其加密货币以保障某些区块链安全并获得回报的活动。

过去一周,以太坊的表现不及一些主要的模因币,如狗狗币和柴犬币,这些代币一直被认为缺乏实际用途。Rosenblum表示:“这是高质量资产被迫退出的迹象。”

市值第二大的加密货币以太坊在过去七天内下跌了25.7%,而狗狗币下跌了12.4%,柴犬币下跌了18.7%。

比特币在过去七天内下跌了14%,周三约为56,106美元,比3月创下的历史最高点73,798美元低24%。以太坊在过去七天内下跌了26%,约为2,392美元。

本文源自智通财经网

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