崩盘!比特币四天暴跌一万美元,现在是什么牛市?是大熊吧

币界网Published on 2024-08-03Last updated on 2024-08-03

币界网报道：

先说说今天为什么跌的那么惨，首先是是因为失业率的下降触发了Sahm Rule（萨姆规则），而Sahm Rule的代表就是经济衰退的可能，昨天美股涨，美债跌，币圈跌，是因为资金回到了美股和美债，但今天就是美债跌，美股跌，币圈跌，就连黄金都在跌

说是交易衰退也是没有办法的，但是现在就是衰退了吗？

目前看到的指标只有一个失业率是走高的，但即便是4.3%的失业率在美国来说仍然是较低的水平，失业率上升到5.3%以上才是危险区间，当然有些小伙伴说现在就是经济衰退了只是美国不承认，那我们就要看看全球普遍的经济衰退标准，主要是GDP连续两个季度的下跌，但刚刚过去的第二季度，美国的GDP直接翻倍了

你说你预期到了经济衰退，GDP翻倍的时候你咋不说呢，非农好数据是坏数据，坏数据还是坏数据，这句话我们说了应该超过一年了，现在还在希望失业率增加来刺激美联储的小伙伴该明白是什么意思了吧

那么为什么跌的这么惨，美股都出现了平均2.5%的跌幅，这是因为每周五的资金相对一周的工作日来说，资金量是最低的，所以很有可能是利空，又赶上低资金量，就不可收拾了，其实说到美股还算好，毕竟周五结束后还有两天的冷静期

但 BTC 和 ETH 可能就麻烦一些了，毕竟是7x24小时的，所以到了周末两天价格的波动可能会更大一些，甚至不排除价格的大幅震动

需要注意的还是周末这两天，下周没有重要的宏观数据了，就看情绪的博弈

TOXYt83dnVc1IKXjPKEJCKrhpe08Ln7ZW48sBrjA.png

这一轮周期上半场烂完了，不如开始想一想下半场乃至未来，Crypto世界需要什么

我们手持山寨，现在都是麻木的情绪，现在对任何行情的消息都不感冒了，什么牛和熊的，无所谓了

这情绪跟大熊市底部区域，如出一辙

比特币其实趋势一直很好，从52上了，底部在慢慢提高，难的是山寨，完全弱智跟随大饼，不过都熬到现在了，大家放弃就很不划算

今年9月份大概率就要放水，历年来，大部分都是10月份山寨开启行情，果然又走到了这一步，10月份，还有两个月，也许9月中旬市场就提前开始反应

论大资金叙事，符合条件的链无非BTC、ETH、Tron链（Trc20 USDT） 所以，很多人喊着是不是Infra基建设施过剩。太搞笑了，现在99.99%的基础设施都是垃圾，尤其是以Layer2为首的中心化项目

做着和WBTC一样的封装资产业务，锁住用户的真钱，在自己的中心化L2里1:1发个假筹码。那用户的钱算不算数还不是人家项目方一句话的事情。在Crypto这个黑暗森林里你要我相信项目方不作恶真的太难了

因此，反正行业也烂成这个样子了，到处都是赌场PvP。那有理想的人可以想一想如何更好的去满足“去中心化瑞士银行的这个命题作文

再或者，可以想一想，因特网刚刚诞生的时候，诞生了哪个足够去中心化、足够分布式的应用，直到现在所谓的Web3时期，也有很多人，很多大公司依然在用，在开发，在维护，在创造足够的商业价值

太难熬了兄弟们，我熊市都没有这么难熬过，回调的幅度和时间只是一方面，更多的是对重新认知加密牛市的过程难熬，这点跟大家一样

可以见得，未来每个阶段都是新的，都是以前不曾有过的，未来玩行情要更谨慎，重新定义牛熊

只用实力说话，用价值体现！带精准把控点位，拿捏收益，在币圈行情好的时候你怎么玩都能赚，但是你要清楚的知道币圈的行情不会一直好！！！

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