SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-17Last updated on 2024-07-17

Abstract

过去一天里,BTC的价格节节攀升,一度突破66000美元,现货ETF单日流入达到4.22亿美元。从波动率上看,过去 24 小时里中远端的 IV 水平被大幅上调,BTC 期限 IV Curve 走平的趋势更加明显。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

过去一天里,BTC 的价格节节攀升,一度突破 66000 美元,现货 ETF 单日流入达到 4.22 亿美元,为六月以来最高纪录,三天内累计流入超过 10 亿美元,表明了投资者信心和机构投资兴趣的增强。另一方面,Kraken 开始向 Mt Gox 债权人分发总计 31 亿美元的加密货币(BTC/BCH)赔偿金,预计将在接下来的 7 ~ 14 天逐步进行,尽管如此,我们看到潜在卖压引发的抛售情绪在机构投资者的支持下得到抵消,BTC 的价格依然坚挺,同时还有人指出,此次的潜在抛售属于债权人的自愿行为,与德国政府的强制卖币计划并不相同,因此对价格的影响会比想象中来得小。

ETH 方面,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)正式宣布给予包括 BlackRock,VanEck 等资管公司以太坊现货 ETF 的初步批准,并将于下周二(7 月 23 日)开始交易。此消息再度提振了数字货币市场,交易员在七月底以后的到期日上大量购买看涨期权,并同时在 19 JU L2 4 (ETH Spot ETF 交易开始之前)上出售看涨期权,形成日历价差策略。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Source: TradingView;

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

从波动率上看,过去 24 小时里中远端的 IV 水平被大幅上调,BTC 期限 IV Curve 走平的趋势更加明显,八九月的 IV 已经达到了 60% +的高位,超过过去三个月历史 75% 分位数,从 IV vs RV 的图表上也能看到, 30 d/60 d 的 IV 极速走高,在与 RV 对比下展现出丰厚的 Vol Premium。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Source: Deribit (截至 17 JUL 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Data Source: Deribit, ETH 交易总体分布;以 7.23 为分界点,前端卖 call,中后端买 call

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

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470 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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