SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-17Last updated on 2024-07-17

Abstract

过去一天里,BTC的价格节节攀升,一度突破66000美元,现货ETF单日流入达到4.22亿美元。从波动率上看,过去 24 小时里中远端的 IV 水平被大幅上调,BTC 期限 IV Curve 走平的趋势更加明显。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

过去一天里,BTC 的价格节节攀升,一度突破 66000 美元,现货 ETF 单日流入达到 4.22 亿美元,为六月以来最高纪录,三天内累计流入超过 10 亿美元,表明了投资者信心和机构投资兴趣的增强。另一方面,Kraken 开始向 Mt Gox 债权人分发总计 31 亿美元的加密货币(BTC/BCH)赔偿金,预计将在接下来的 7 ~ 14 天逐步进行,尽管如此,我们看到潜在卖压引发的抛售情绪在机构投资者的支持下得到抵消,BTC 的价格依然坚挺,同时还有人指出,此次的潜在抛售属于债权人的自愿行为,与德国政府的强制卖币计划并不相同,因此对价格的影响会比想象中来得小。

ETH 方面,美国证券交易委员会(SEC)正式宣布给予包括 BlackRock,VanEck 等资管公司以太坊现货 ETF 的初步批准,并将于下周二(7 月 23 日)开始交易。此消息再度提振了数字货币市场,交易员在七月底以后的到期日上大量购买看涨期权,并同时在 19 JU L2 4 (ETH Spot ETF 交易开始之前)上出售看涨期权,形成日历价差策略。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Source: TradingView;

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

从波动率上看,过去 24 小时里中远端的 IV 水平被大幅上调,BTC 期限 IV Curve 走平的趋势更加明显,八九月的 IV 已经达到了 60% +的高位,超过过去三个月历史 75% 分位数,从 IV vs RV 的图表上也能看到, 30 d/60 d 的 IV 极速走高,在与 RV 对比下展现出丰厚的 Vol Premium。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Source: Deribit (截至 17 JUL 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Data Source: Deribit, ETH 交易总体分布;以 7.23 为分界点,前端卖 call,中后端买 call

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240717):IV走高走平

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What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

2.3k Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

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