SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-16Last updated on 2024-07-16

Abstract

对BTC而言，在过去的24小时里，来自传统市场正面新闻仍在不断产生。尽管门头沟只是进行了一次小测试，但期权市场的交易员总是先人一步展现出对抗的姿态。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

对 BTC 而言，在过去的 24 小时里，来自传统市场正面新闻仍在不断产生。例如特朗普选择了支持加密货币的参议院 J.D.Vance 作为他的总统竞选伙伴；贝莱德 CEO 拉里芬克也在采访中承认比特币的金融价值，一改之前怀疑者的姿态；ETF 的 Flow 也还在延续，日内大约有$ 300 M 的资金流向数字货币市场。但就在币价在社区的欢呼声中挑战 65000 美元的高地时，据 Arkham 数据，MtGox 钱包地址像一个新建地址转出了 0.021 枚比特币，或为转账测试，市场情绪突然发生转向，使得币价短线走跌至 62500 美元下方，但冷静过后又重新反弹回到了布林带的中线，大约 63500 的位置。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

Source: TradingView

尽管门头沟只是进行了一次小测试，但期权市场的交易员总是先人一步展现出对抗的姿态，提前 Price-In 了未来抛售潜在的不确定性，使得 BTC 中远期的 IV 迅速走高 4% Vol，缩小了和 ETH 之间的差距。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

Source: SignalPlus

从 ETH 的视角来看，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）将多个现货以太坊的批准日期从 7 月 18 日推迟到了 7 月 23 日，延续了此前日期推后的趋势。尽管如此，社区仍然对此保持乐观的情绪，认为监管对加密产品的接受度有所提高，并预期将有大量资金涌入数字货币市场。受此影响，ETH 七月末和八月初到期日的 IV 上涨 2+%左右，大宗市场上出现以 26 JU L2 4 3600/3800 Long Call Spread（3100 ETH per leg）和 Buy 2 Aug 3700-C vs Sell 30 Aug 24 4000-C（7375 ETH per leg）为代表的期权策略，表达对短期价格上行空间的积极态度。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

Source: Twitter

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

Source: Deribit （截至 16 JUL 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

Data Source: Deribit，ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

Data Source: Deribit， BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240716)：Go ETF Go

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While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. 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