SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-08Last updated on 2024-07-08

Abstract

在过去的24小时里，市场见证了BTC在亚盘开市后的大幅跳水，期权隐含波动率随即被大幅上调，并形成倒挂的形态。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

在过去的 24 小时里，市场见证了 BTC 在亚盘开市后的大幅跳水，眼看币价一度跌穿至 55000 美元以下，随后温和反弹，并在结算时点大步一跳成功回到 57500 附近。实际波动率的大涨让双边的 short gamma 头寸都陷入难堪的境地，期权隐含波动率随即被大幅上调，并形成倒挂的形态。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

Source: TradingVie；SignalPlus，ATM Vol

纵观眼下的局面，社区里明显地分化出两种不同的声音。消极的交易者指出，来自德国政府和美国政府还有门头沟三大势力的抛压仍未消退，币价还可能继续走跌。但今天社区中有更多乐观的交易者发声，他们首先否定了政府抛压的带来的过度影响，指出政府卖的 BTC 数量只有上一轮牛市的 4% ；另一方面，即使在 Spot 下行的行情，ETF 仍然在为市场带来正向的资金流入，大部分都去到了 FBTC；我们还能看到，有日本 MicroStrategy 之称的咨询公司 Metaplanet 在昨天抄底购买了 42, 466 枚 Bitcoin，价值$ 2.5 M，现在这个公司总记持有了 203, 734 枚比特币，均价在 62000 左右。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

Source：Farside Investors

接下来的路会怎么走，暂时没人可以给出充满信心的答案。一众交易员将目光锁定在了这周的宏观事件上，不仅有美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话，还有重磅 CPI/PPI 数据公布。再过几周就是新一轮的 FOMC 会议了，在当前形势还不明朗的时候，宏观指标或许能成为一道重要的指示牌。不仅如此，市场还预计本周的 11-12 会迎来以太 ETF 的批准，为市场注入了更多的不确定性，下半周精彩预定。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

Source: Deribit （截至 8 JU L2 4 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

从交易上看，由于 11-12 号的重磅数据公布和 ETF 批准的可能性，交易员大量购买 ETH 12 JUL 的看跌期权，对多头持仓进行保护。BTC 则是相反，价格的反弹为交易员抛售 12 JUL 看跌期权提供了信心，同时远端看涨期权的成交量暴涨，分布上主要是 wing 上的买入，以及更远 tail 上的卖出，形成了 long call spread 的 flow。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

Data Source: Deribit，BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

Data Source: Deribit， ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708)：拥抱不确定

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