SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-08Last updated on 2024-07-08

Abstract

在过去的24小时里,市场见证了BTC在亚盘开市后的大幅跳水,期权隐含波动率随即被大幅上调,并形成倒挂的形态。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

在过去的 24 小时里,市场见证了 BTC 在亚盘开市后的大幅跳水,眼看币价一度跌穿至 55000 美元以下,随后温和反弹,并在结算时点大步一跳成功回到 57500 附近。实际波动率的大涨让双边的 short gamma 头寸都陷入难堪的境地,期权隐含波动率随即被大幅上调,并形成倒挂的形态。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

Source: TradingVie;SignalPlus,ATM Vol

纵观眼下的局面,社区里明显地分化出两种不同的声音。消极的交易者指出,来自德国政府和美国政府还有门头沟三大势力的抛压仍未消退,币价还可能继续走跌。但今天社区中有更多乐观的交易者发声,他们首先否定了政府抛压的带来的过度影响,指出政府卖的 BTC 数量只有上一轮牛市的 4% ;另一方面,即使在 Spot 下行的行情,ETF 仍然在为市场带来正向的资金流入,大部分都去到了 FBTC;我们还能看到,有日本 MicroStrategy 之称的咨询公司 Metaplanet 在昨天抄底购买了 42, 466 枚 Bitcoin,价值$ 2.5 M,现在这个公司总记持有了 203, 734 枚比特币,均价在 62000 左右。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

Source:Farside Investors

接下来的路会怎么走,暂时没人可以给出充满信心的答案。一众交易员将目光锁定在了这周的宏观事件上,不仅有美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话,还有重磅 CPI/PPI 数据公布。再过几周就是新一轮的 FOMC 会议了,在当前形势还不明朗的时候,宏观指标或许能成为一道重要的指示牌。不仅如此,市场还预计本周的 11-12 会迎来以太 ETF 的批准,为市场注入了更多的不确定性,下半周精彩预定。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

Source: Deribit (截至 8 JU L2 4 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

从交易上看,由于 11-12 号的重磅数据公布和 ETF 批准的可能性,交易员大量购买 ETH 12 JUL 的看跌期权,对多头持仓进行保护。BTC 则是相反,价格的反弹为交易员抛售 12 JUL 看跌期权提供了信心,同时远端看涨期权的成交量暴涨,分布上主要是 wing 上的买入,以及更远 tail 上的卖出,形成了 long call spread 的 flow。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

Data Source: Deribit, ETH 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240708):拥抱不确定

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While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. 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