Cosmos 生态系统深度分析：为什么看好不受市场欢迎的ATOM

金色财经Published on 2024-07-08Last updated on 2024-07-09

Abstract

尽管普遍不受欢迎，ATOM 却意外地代表了当今市场上最佳的投资配置之一（风险/回报）。这篇文章将阐述该代币的史上最低情绪、更广泛的 Cosmos 生态系统令人印象深刻的增长，以及为什么 "这一次会不同"。

作者：David Attermann，m31 Capital  翻译：善欧巴，金色财经
尽管普遍不受欢迎，ATOM 却意外地代表了当今市场上最佳的投资配置之一（风险/回报）。这篇文章将阐述该代币的史上最低情绪、更广泛的 Cosmos 生态系统令人印象深刻的增长，以及为什么 "这一次会不同"。
Cosmos 和 ATOM 简介
Cosmos 不是一个区块链，而是一个由互操作区块链（应用链或区域链）组成的网络，通过 IBC（跨链通信）协议连接。与大多数区块链共享块空间不同，开发者可以在 Cosmos 上定制和部署他们自己的应用链，这赋予他们更大的设计灵活性（不同的应用有不同的性能/功能需求）、更好的可扩展性/更少的块空间竞争，以及可能最重要的是，应用可以累积价值的原生 gas 代币。
ATOM 是第一个在 Cosmos 上启动的区块链 Cosmos Hub 的原生代币。过去几年间，星际基金会 (Interchain Foundation) 主要专注于开发 Cosmos SDK 或软件开发工具包，使开发人员能够快速轻松地定制和启动应用链。此举具有高度战略意义：首先专注于应用程序/开发者招募以扩大网络效应，然后为 Hub 及其原生 ATOM 代币添加更多功能。
然而，自从项目启动以来，社区内部一直就 Hub 在更广泛生态系统中的作用以及代币提取价值的权利不断争吵。尽管整个生态系统取得了令人兴奋的增长，但 Hub 持续的身份危机一直阻碍着代币的发展。
ATOM投资论点
情绪处于历史最低点
目前Hub的情绪处于历史最低点，这从 ATOM 过去几年的绝对和相对价格表现中可以明显看出：
与ETH的相比，ATOM的价格在过去一年半是下降的。

生态系统


最近市场大涨，ATOM错过了最近的市场广泛复苏。

生态系统


并且ATOM在过去12个月下跌了18%（同期BTC上涨了120%）。

生态系统


Cosmos已成为顶级Web3生态系统
该生态系统目前在开发者活动中排名第三：

生态系统


拥有约500亿美元的IBC年度交易量：

生态系统


总生态系统市值为820亿美元，其中250亿美元已经接入IBC。

生态系统


该生态系统包括Web3主要垂直领域的明星项目，包括区块链基础设施（Sei, Celestia, Dymension, Axelar, Neutron）、DeFi（dYdX, Injective, Osmosis, Thorchain, Stride）、DePIN（Akash, Pocket, Jackal, Syntropy, Cudos, dVPN）、AI（Fetch.ai, Oraichain, Soarchain, AIOZ）和RWA（Provenance, Noble）

生态系统


当包括Provenance时，IBC的总TVL为128亿美元，成为按TVL计算的第二大生态系统。（DefiLlama 和其他数据提供商不会聚合 Cosmos TVL，因为它尚未通过通用代币连接）

生态系统


为什么“这次不同”
Jae Kwon最终退出了。
ATOM持有者过去曾多次尝试增加ATOM的价值积累。Hub社区历史上一直分为两派：

  • 1）那些希望保持ATOM设计简单以最大化安全性的人（由联合创始人Jae Kwon领导）
  • 2）那些希望改善代币的价值积累，特别是通过利用更广泛的Cosmos生态系统的经济活动的人

下图是Hub争议历史的简要总结：

生态系统


讨论Cosmos Hub的未来和Stride
尽管连续遭到拒绝，但在2023年11月提案848（将ATOM通胀从14%降至10%）出人意料地通过后，Hub的前景完全改变了。虽然表面上不是一个巨大的胜利，但这是Jae Kwon的最后一根稻草，他立即宣布了他打算与他的忠实追随者一起分叉Hub的意图。新链AtomOne计划在本月推出。
随着Kwon最终退出，重新活跃的Hub社区决心最终改善ATOM代币的价值积累和认知。尽管目前还没有做出重大改变，但Hub论坛上有许多令人兴奋的想法（货币性、安全性、流动性），很可能很快就会有一波可能改变游戏规则的提案涌现。
Osmosis最近引入的IBC费用抽象就是个例子。
Cosmos用户最常见的抱怨之一是需要拥有不同区域的原生代币才能使它们互操作。Osmosis，领先的Cosmos DEX，最近引入了一个费用抽象模块，允许用户用任何Cosmos代币支付IBC Gas费用（只要接收区块链已批准升级）。该模块仍处于初期阶段，但如果它被广泛采用，ATOM有合法的机会成为IBC的默认Gas代币。

生态系统


Bablylon集成极大增强了Hub的共享安全模型。

生态系统


另一个鲜为人知的发展是Hub最近与Babylon，比特币再质押协议的合作伙伴关系。该合作伙伴关系，本月将启动测试网，将允许比特币持有者质押他们的BTC以保护Cosmos Hub ICS消费者链，这将与 Babylon 一起将比特币安全带入 Cosmos Hub：

生态系统


总结

  • ATOM 情绪跌至谷底
  • Cosmos 生态系统从未如此强劲
  • 随着 Jae Kwon 的离开，ATOM 治理现在可以追求更有意义的价值积累（以及其他看涨选项）
  • 我没有特定的催化剂或价格目标；我只是认为，考虑到其复杂性和充满争议的历史，市场忽视了 ATOM 的一系列利好发展。这种动态使该代币今天具有极具吸引力的风险/回报率（作为对比，ETH 和 SOL 的完全稀释估值目前分别为 ATOM 的 100 倍和 15 倍）。鉴于有利的设置，我相信 Hub 只需要一个治理提案就能实现重大的估值重估。

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
CapricornAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
comp
CompoundCOMP
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

a16z Deep Dive: Stop Chasing the 'AI Smell', Here's a Practical Guide to Writing with AI

"Don't Obsess Over AI Detection: A Practical Guide to Writing Alongside AI" by Steph Zinn (a16z Crypto) This guide moves beyond the flawed premise that AI-generated text can be easily spotted by a set of "tells" and that these features automatically mean poor quality. Instead, it focuses on how writers and founders can use LLMs effectively by understanding, controlling, and editing the common stylistic tendencies of AI-assisted prose. The article breaks down AI writing "tells" into four key dimensions: **1. Rhetorical Features (Insight-Shaped Writing):** AI often produces semantically empty, "corporate-sounding" filler language—vague profundities, hedging phrases, excessive parallelism, and summary statements. The advice is to ruthlessly edit these out, using prompts to make language more specific and direct. **2. Voice Features (The Alexa Voice):** Default AI writing relies on a narrow, fungible vocabulary of low-friction, abstract words and cliché phrases that lack personality. While this generic voice is acceptable for support docs or mass communications, founders should preserve their unique voice for impactful writing. Use LLMs to identify and replace jargon, aiming for concrete, distinctive word choices. **3. Structural Features (Form Without Function):** AI tends towards over-structured text with excessive subheadings, lists, roadmaps, and the rigid "three-point" framework. While clear structure is good for readability and SEO, it shouldn't force ideas into unnatural containers. Choose a structure that serves the format and purpose, borrowing from effective examples. **4. Punctuation Features (Dash Panic):** The overuse of em dashes and colons has become a hallmark, but writers shouldn't avoid useful punctuation just to seem "human." The key is avoiding repetitive, distracting patterns. Use punctuation that is grammatically correct and supports the flow of your argument. The core argument is that many so-called AI flaws are just amplified versions of existing bad writing habits. The goal isn't to eliminate AI's role but to use it as a tool while maintaining editorial control. The final question shouldn't be "Can this be detected as AI?" but "Does this writing effectively do its job?"

marsbit17m ago

a16z Deep Dive: Stop Chasing the 'AI Smell', Here's a Practical Guide to Writing with AI

marsbit17m ago

Podcast Notes | Conversation with Tom Lee: Bitmine Acquiring Nearly 5% of Total ETH Supply Is Not the End Goal, ETH Price Target Set at $10,000

In a podcast interview, Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies, discusses the company's strategy to accumulate nearly 5% of the total Ethereum supply within 14 months, using equity financing and avoiding debt. BitMine has consistently purchased ETH for over 60 consecutive weeks, with recent weeks combining buybacks with purchases. The company's substantial ETH holdings generate approximately $300 million in annual staking rewards, covering operational costs like the dividends for its 9.5% perpetual preferred stock (BMNP). Lee positions ETH as a store-of-value asset, likening it to stocks or land, rather than a pure cash-flow instrument. Looking ahead, Lee suggests BitMine may continue buying beyond the 5% target if institutional adoption grows. He outlines a bullish price target for ETH: surpassing $5,000 in a new crypto bull cycle and potentially exceeding $10,000 within 1-2 years, driven by Wall Street tokenization and AI-related demand. The discussion also covers BitMine's evolution into an ecosystem player, funding Ethereum Foundation spin-offs and developing its Maven staking platform. Lee acknowledges his significant financial interests are tied to ETH's price and BitMine's performance. The interview provides a framework for evaluating ETH as a long-term asset, emphasizing staking yield sustainability and future institutional demand, while noting the uncertainties surrounding macro cycles and real-world adoption.

marsbit17m ago

Podcast Notes | Conversation with Tom Lee: Bitmine Acquiring Nearly 5% of Total ETH Supply Is Not the End Goal, ETH Price Target Set at $10,000

marsbit17m ago

Ripple's RLUSD Market Cap Exceeds $2 Billion, With Nearly $1 Billion on XRP Ledger

Ripple USD's ($RLUSD) market capitalization has surpassed $2 billion, with nearly $1 billion issued on the XRP Ledger. Launched in December 2024, the stablecoin is backed by reserves of cash and cash equivalents, attested monthly by Deloitte. Data shows $RLUSD's market cap at approximately $2.02 billion, split almost evenly between the XRP Ledger ($962.8M) and Ethereum ($1.05B). This represents an eight-fold increase since April 2025. The stablecoin has provided significant dollar liquidity to the XRP Ledger, with over $2.5B processed through RLUSD trading pairs. Ripple is expanding RLUSD's utility through payments integrations (including Mastercard), exchange listings, regional distribution deals, and support for institutional lending initiatives on the XRP Ledger. A new platform, Ripple Mint, also allows qualified institutions to manage RLUSD issuance and redemptions.

cryptonews.ru50m ago

Ripple's RLUSD Market Cap Exceeds $2 Billion, With Nearly $1 Billion on XRP Ledger

cryptonews.ru50m ago

Pricing Risk Assets in 8 Hours: Tonight's PCE to Set the Discount Rate, Nvidia to Test Earnings Tomorrow Morning

"Pricing Risk Assets in 8 Hours: PCE to Set the Discount Rate Tonight, NVIDIA to Test Profits Tomorrow Morning" Risk asset prices hinge on two variables: the numerator (earnings expectations) and the denominator (the discount rate). Both will be recalibrated within eight hours. First, at 20:30 Beijing time, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases July PCE inflation data and the second estimate of Q2 GDP. Consensus expects mild core PCE growth, but a surge in key PPI components poses an upside risk. A hotter-than-expected print could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, threatening the recent rally in Bitcoin (BTC) above $80K, which was fueled by falling yields. A benign reading would support risk assets. Market sentiment is already "greedy" (Fear & Greed Index at 74), making it vulnerable to disappointment. Second, around 04:20, NVIDIA reports its Q2 FY27 earnings. While consensus revenue of ~$91.85B slightly exceeds company guidance, the market has priced in a beat. The key will be the magnitude of the beat and, crucially, the Q3 guidance. As a bellwether for tech and AI narratives, NVIDIA's results will significantly impact overall risk appetite and AI-related crypto tokens. The combination creates four scenarios: 1) Benign PCE & strong NVIDIA guidance confirms the bullish trend. 2) Hot PCE & strong NVIDIA leads to conflicted signals and likely volatility for BTC. 3) Benign PCE & weak NVIDIA guidance pressures tech but offers some macro support for BTC. 4) Hot PCE & weak NVIDIA guidance presents a "double whammy," risking a sharp pullback in BTC toward the $75K-$76K support zone. The outcomes will set the tone for markets ahead of the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium.

marsbit50m ago

Pricing Risk Assets in 8 Hours: Tonight's PCE to Set the Discount Rate, Nvidia to Test Earnings Tomorrow Morning

marsbit50m ago

Nebraska Residents Prepare to Vote on Betting Markets Amidst Approaching Kalshi Case

Nebraska residents are preparing to vote on legalizing online sports betting in November, with two separate measures on the ballot: one to permit it and another to establish its regulatory framework. The campaign, funded by major operators like FanDuel and DraftKings, has collected sufficient signatures for both proposals. If passed, 70% of the gambling tax revenue would fund property tax relief, with projections estimating nearly $87 million over five years. However, the initiative faces scrutiny due to an ongoing investigation into petition fraud across the state, though suspicious signatures have been excluded from the certified counts. The measures would limit operators to two online platforms, require in-state servers, and mandate rules by June 2027. Meanwhile, prediction markets like Kalshi already operate in Nebraska without requiring voter approval, highlighting a competitive landscape. Other states, such as North Carolina and Pennsylvania, are taking varied regulatory approaches toward similar markets.

cryptonews.ru52m ago

Nebraska Residents Prepare to Vote on Betting Markets Amidst Approaching Kalshi Case

cryptonews.ru52m ago

Trading

Spot

Hot Articles

How to Buy ATOM

Welcome to HTX.com! We've made purchasing Cosmos (ATOM) simple and convenient. Follow our step-by-step guide to embark on your crypto journey.Step 1: Create Your HTX AccountUse your email or phone number to sign up for a free account on HTX. Experience a hassle-free registration journey and unlock all features.Get My AccountStep 2: Go to Buy Crypto and Choose Your Payment MethodCredit/Debit Card: Use your Visa or Mastercard to buy Cosmos (ATOM) instantly.Balance: Use funds from your HTX account balance to trade seamlessly.Third Parties: We've added popular payment methods such as Google Pay and Apple Pay to enhance convenience.P2P: Trade directly with other users on HTX.Over-the-Counter (OTC): We offer tailor-made services and competitive exchange rates for traders.Step 3: Store Your Cosmos (ATOM)After purchasing your Cosmos (ATOM), store it in your HTX account. Alternatively, you can send it elsewhere via blockchain transfer or use it to trade other cryptocurrencies.Step 4: Trade Cosmos (ATOM)Easily trade Cosmos (ATOM) on HTX's spot market. Simply access your account, select your trading pair, execute your trades, and monitor in real-time. We offer a user-friendly experience for both beginners and seasoned traders.

4.8k Total ViewsPublished 2024.03.29Updated 2026.06.02

How to Buy ATOM

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of ATOM (ATOM) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions