Matrixport投研:夏季盘整叠加“市场出货”,建议持仓BTC期权待美国大选利好兑现

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-07-05Last updated on 2024-07-05

Abstract

BTC期权投资或为当前资产配置最优解

Matrixport 研究院最新研究显示,近期关注重点为:

  • BTC 仍为本年度回报率最好的资产,远超纳斯达克

  • 美国总统选举仍为 BTC 利好因素,当前数据表示特朗普胜率较高

  • 降息利好本年度或难兑现,BTC 波动率依旧处于较低水平

BTC 为本年度回报率最好的资产,远超纳斯达克

虽然 BTC 进入夏季盘整状态,但它依旧为今年迄今表现最佳的资产。BTC 年初至今的回报率远超纳斯达克(+ 22% )和标普 500 (+ 16% )。就目前的市场行情来看,不少加密参与者们倾向于投资收益率高的代币中,持币观望 BTC 入场时机。

美国总统选举仍为 BTC 利好因素,当前数据表示特朗普胜率较高

美国总统选举年对股票和 BTC 通常是看涨利好。去年,Matrix on Target 展示了 BTC 模拟盘,分析了 BTC 在 2012 年、 2016 年和 2020 年美国总统大选期间的平均表现。在前三个选举年的七月,比特币的回报率接近 36% 。有趣的是,BTC 今年迄今为止上涨了 39% ,与大选年的模拟表现一致。

降息利好本年度或难兑现,BTC 波动率依旧处于较低水平

在即将到来的 FOMC(联邦公开市场委员会)会议中,委员会可能会在 7 月 31 日的会议上表示愿意在 9 月启动降息周期。美联储主席鲍威尔可能会在 8 月 23 日的杰克逊霍尔研讨会上重申这一观点,然后美联储可能会在 9 月 18 日或 12 月 18 日降息。目前倾向于认为美联储今年可能会在 9 月或 12 月降息一次,否则就不会降息。

降息预期带来的利好今年可能难以实现,使波动率保持相对较低水平。即使此前的牛市中经常出现剧烈的盘整,但 BTC 在过去 30 天内未经历 20% 的大幅波动。美联储通过有效沟通成功避免了 BTC 进一步下跌。

Mt.Gox 代币多次转移,市场对“抛售”恐慌情绪明显

Mt.Gox 启动还款流程,近日多次疑似门头沟代币转移,造成市场对其抛售的恐慌情绪;同时,美德政府资产转移造成恐慌升级:链上数据显示,近期德国政府最近将价值超过 1.95 亿美元的比特币转移到各种加密交易所;据 Arkham 信息,美国政府钱包地址(349 c 6 开头)于 7 月 4 日向 bc 1 qvc 开头地址转入 237 枚 BTC,约合 1367 万美元。“市场出货”信息叠加, BTC 价格短时波动剧烈。

虽然货币政策和美国总统选举被视为积极因素,但投资期权,持有少量风险资产,同时投资国债关联代币以赚取高收益不失为上策。

上述部分观点来自 Matrix on Target, 与我们联系获取 Matrix on Target 完整报告。

免责声明:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议。数字资产交易可能具有极大的风险和不稳定性。投资决策应在仔细考虑个人情况并咨询金融专业人士后做出。Matrixport 不对基于本内容所提供信息的任何投资决策负责。

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