EMC比特币每周观察(6.17~6.23)：短期出清继续，试探6万美元关口

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-06-25Last updated on 2024-06-25

Abstract

比特币短期调整继续，跌破6.1万美元，市场为历史新高还债，稳定币流入增加但交易所存量下降。

原文作者：Shang2046

本报告所提及市场、项目、币种等信息、观点及判断，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。

EMC比特币每周观察(6.17~6.23)：短期出清继续，试探6万美元关口

市场继续在 6-7 万美元箱体震荡，为提前抵达历史新高还债

市场一周

BTC 继续向下调整的短期走势，截止 6 月 24 日，一度跌破 6.1 万美元。上周我们预测市场进入弱平衡的短期出清阶段，出清的对象首先是比特币矿工。随着币价的回调，越来越多的矿工卖出所有的每日产出（最大供应 450 枚/天）还在卖出他们牢固的库存。

遗憾的是出清往往是伴随着一定程度的踩踏。过去 1 年多屡次获得强支撑的短期投资者成本线（提升至 6.4 万美元）并没有获得有效抵挡。在跌破 6.1 万美元后，距离 BTC 历史新高以来最大的调整位置 5.65 万美元距离只有 8% 。

这期间，德国政府清理罚没 BTC 和 Mt.Gox 偿还投资者 BTC 的消息只不过是在羸弱大盘上的一点负面助力而已。而更为重要的美联储方面，则延续了此前的鹰派言论，进一步加强了今年 1 次降息的预期。强劲的纳斯达克指数也出现调整，英伟达单日出现 5% 以上下跌。
 
脆弱市场之下，每一个外部因素都很重要。但可以肯定的说，核心的原因是整个市场还在为提前到来的历史新高还债。历史上，BTC 三次减半前后都发生过长时间的调整期，上轮减半后的调整就超过 6 个月的时间，这次过快上涨也不例外。好消息是，市场再次给投资者提供了一个从容上车的窗口期。

供需结构

美元稳定币上周流入 7.08 亿美元，超过上上周的一倍以上。USDT、USDC 同频，分别流入 3.75、 3.33 亿美元。但要注意的是，交易所稳定币存量反而是下降的。ETF 方面全周 4 个交易日均录得流出，单日流出 1 亿以上，总计流出超过 5 亿美元。这种抛售是价格下行的原因之一。需要修正的一点是，ETF 中机构持仓只占到 22% 左右，且主力为对冲基金。买入现货 ETF 的同时，他们往往在 CME 同步开空仓对冲，其对市场的长期上涨远未贡献直接的动力。同时，超过 75% 持仓的散户投资者则具有典型的“追涨杀跌”效应。总而言之，美国 ETF 带来的上涨动力暂时处于萎靡状态，这需要是足够长的时间来消化。CME 合约方面，未平仓合约仍然较高，大约在 100 亿美元左右，较高峰期下降 10% 以上。但成交量已经跌至 17 亿左右，接近 5 月上旬成交量低点的 16 亿美元。

链上数据

BTC 链上数据持续低迷，新增地址和 Fees 收入保持低位，Transactions 和价值转移略有上升，疑与 Runes 的活跃及长短手投降、止盈有关。

EMC BTC Cycle 指标

eMerge 数据引擎显示，牛市指标为 0.125 ， 市场再次进入牛市休眠期。  

关于 EMC Labs

EMC Labs（涌现实验室）由加密资产投资人和数据科学家于 2023 年 4 月创建。专注区块链产业研究及 Crypto 二级市场投资，以产业前瞻、洞察及数据挖掘为核心竞争力，致力于以研究和投资方式参与蓬勃发展的区块链产业，推动区块链及加密资产为人类带来福祉。

更多信息请访问：https://www.emc.fund

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