SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-05-09Last updated on 2024-05-09

Abstract

​币价上，BTC 本周表现不佳，回吐了上周五以来宏观利好带来的大半涨幅。期权方面，隐含波动率在近期低点小幅震荡，前端曲面较平，ETH 相较 BTC 仍有较高的 Vol Premium。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

一份法庭文件上文件显示，由于近期 BTC，SOL 等数字货币价值的上涨，已破产的加密货币交易所 FTX 的几乎所有客户都将能拿回自己的资金，甚至更多，具体来说，目前该公司尚有 145 亿至 163 亿的资产用于偿还债权人约 112 亿美元的欠款，但也有部分投资者因这潜在的风险资产抛售而对近期币价上行空间表示悲观态度。

另一方面，根据彭博社的报道，全球最大的加密资产管理公司 Graysacle 宣布撤回向美国 SEC 提交的以太坊期货申请，然其并未透露撤回申请的原因，引起了广泛的猜测。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

Source: TradingView

币价上，BTC 本周表现不佳，回吐了上周五以来宏观利好带来的大半涨幅。期权方面，隐含波动率在近期低点小幅震荡，前端曲面较平，ETH 相较 BTC 仍有较高的 Vol Premium。从交易上看，ETH 31 MAY Sell 3700 Buy 3800 的卖出看涨价差策略成为过去一日的焦点，BTC 看涨策略的抛压同样强势，同时伴随着各期限上显著的保护性看跌期权买入，Vol Skew 大幅走低。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

Source: Deribit （截至 9 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8）

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

Source: SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

Data Source: Deribit， ETH 交易总体分布， 31 MAY Sell 3700 Buy 3800 Call Spread

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

Data Source: Deribit，BTC 交易总体分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240509)：BTC持续回吐涨幅

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ，获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新，欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ，或者加入我们的微信群（添加小助手微信：SignalPlus 123）、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群，和更多朋友一起交流互动。SignalPlus Official Website：https://www.signalplus.com

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

If It's Not a Clear Yes, It's a No: A Nine-Year Retrospective by a VC Who Survived Four Cycles

**"Invest Only When Certain": A Nine-Year Retrospective from a VC Across Four Cycles** IOSG founder Jocy shares hard-earned lessons from nine years and over a hundred investments in Web3. The core challenge isn't identifying successful founders, but understanding why talented founders with solid ideas still fail. Through building a "failed founder database," IOSG identified six recurring failure patterns. **Founder Trait Red Flags:** 1. **Emotionally Unstable:** Founders who react defensively to criticism or publicly lash out under pressure (e.g., 80% drawdowns) often fail. Resilience is key. 2. **Lacking Hunger / Having a Fallback:** Founders with significant safety nets (family wealth, cushy fallback jobs) may lack the "do-or-die" commitment needed to survive crypto's brutal cycles. 3. **Unchecked Ego:** Includes "polished execution machines" who excel in known frameworks but struggle when paradigms shift, and "professor-types" who are technically brilliant but resistant to commercial feedback or coaching. **Project Structure Red Flags:** 4. **Token-First, Not Product-First:** Treating the token solely as a fundraising tool with no real utility or connection to product value is a major warning sign. The project should have value even if the token goes to zero. 5. **No Day-1 Exit Thesis:** Founders must have a clear, staged capital strategy from the start, understanding what each funding round needs to prove to unlock the next. "Exit before entry" is crucial. 6. **No Full-Cycle Experience:** Founders who haven't lived through a complete crypto bull/bear cycle (e.g., 2018, 2022) often underestimate their vulnerability. IOSG limits initial checks for such teams to $250k, sizing for risk. **The Positive Flipside: Desirable Founder Traits** The ideal candidate exhibits: obsessive problem-depth, being a second-time founder with a non-consensus vision, strong communication skills with *controlled* ego, relentless perseverance, and a global perspective with agency and taste (increasingly vital in the AI era). **Three Survival Tips for Founders:** 1. **Cash Flow Over Narrative:** Real revenue is what sustains projects, not vanity metrics. 2. **Tokens Are a Liability:** Avoid issuing a token unless absolutely necessary. The hidden costs (market making, liquidity, compliance) are immense, often a multi-million-dollar burden. 3. **Respect Liquidity:** Sell during peaks to build treasury, buy back to support the protocol during troughs. Be realistic about valuations and your ability to deliver for the next round. The final principle is simple yet paramount: **"If it's a borderline 'yes' or 'no,' don't invest."** In an industry that reinvents itself every few years, the discipline to consistently say "no" is the ultimate secret to longevity.

Foresight News19m ago

If It's Not a Clear Yes, It's a No: A Nine-Year Retrospective by a VC Who Survived Four Cycles

Foresight News19m ago

Zuckerberg’s Meta Makes a Move Into Prediction Markets With Arena

Meta, under CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is developing a new standalone prediction market platform called Arena. This move will position the tech giant in direct competition with established platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, capitalizing on the sector's rapid growth. Arena will initially operate independently of Meta's core apps (Facebook, Instagram, etc.) and feature a points-based game rather than real-money betting, though monetization may be considered in the future. This isn't Meta's first foray into prediction markets; it previously launched and later discontinued the Forecast app in 2022. The broader prediction market sector has seen a significant boom, with users speculating on events from politics to sports, and trading volumes reaching an estimated $130 billion this year. The trend is gaining mainstream attention, exemplified by Trump Media's plans to integrate prediction markets into Truth Social. Given Meta's vast global user base of nearly 3.56 billion daily users, even modest engagement with Arena could dramatically expand participation in prediction markets. Its entry is expected to intensify competition for existing players while potentially validating and mainstreaming the entire prediction market model.

TheNewsCrypto36m ago

Zuckerberg’s Meta Makes a Move Into Prediction Markets With Arena

TheNewsCrypto36m ago

SemiAnalysis Deep Dive into CXMT: $50 Billion Revenue, An IPO Amidst a Supercycle

SemiAnalysis' in-depth report on ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) details its rapid rise as China's largest upcoming semiconductor IPO. Founded in 2016 by Zhu Yiming, CXMT built its DRAM foundation on acquired patents and talent from the bankrupt German firm Qimonda. It achieved its first annual profit in 2025 after nearly a decade of significant capital support, primarily from patient Hefei municipal investors who fostered a local supply chain. The company is now capitalizing on a strong DRAM supercycle. Its revenue soared from ~$3.3B in 2024 to ~$8.6B in 2025, with Q1 2026 alone reaching ~$7.3B. SemiAnalysis projects full-year 2026 revenue could exceed $50B, driven by soaring ASPs rather than massive market share gains. While CXMT is closing the capacity gap with Micron, its product mix remains heavily focused on commodity DDR/LPDDR, which currently offers higher margins than its nascent HBM business. CXMT faces significant challenges in HBM, struggling with yield and stability for HBM3 8-Hi stacks while lagging behind the big three (Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron) in advanced nodes. However, strategic national priorities for AI self-sufficiency may push it to accelerate HBM capacity. Its complex IPO structure reveals heavy state-backed ownership and voting control over its fabs, with Alibaba appearing as both a key cloud customer and a minority shareholder. The IPO aims to raise ~$4.1B, primarily to strengthen its core DRAM manufacturing base.

marsbit40m ago

SemiAnalysis Deep Dive into CXMT: $50 Billion Revenue, An IPO Amidst a Supercycle

marsbit40m ago

From Corning to Ciena: The 10x Opportunity in the AI Optical Communication Chain

The transition from copper to optical communication in AI data centers is creating significant investment opportunities beyond just chipmakers. The entire photonics supply chain, from glass and fiber to connectors and test equipment, is critical. Corning, a key fiber supplier, has locked in multi-billion dollar, multi-year contracts with major cloud providers (Meta, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, NVIDIA), demonstrating pricing power and scale. Its profit growth is outpacing revenue growth. In the interconnect layer, Amphenol benefits from high growth in AI data centers, driven by strategic acquisitions and operational efficiency, while Credo Technology acts as a bridge between copper and optical solutions, though with high customer concentration risk. At the systems level, Ciena enables higher data capacity on existing fiber lines, with a strong backlog and cloud customer adoption. Further upstream, AXT is a bottleneck supplier of key indium phosphide wafers for lasers but faces geopolitical supply chain risks. VEO Solutions provides essential testing equipment for the entire photonics industry. A new pure-play photonics ETF (FOTO) offers a consolidated investment approach. The core thesis is that the physical limits of copper are driving an inevitable shift to optical technologies, with wealth flowing to essential, often overlooked, suppliers across the photonics value chain.

marsbit52m ago

From Corning to Ciena: The 10x Opportunity in the AI Optical Communication Chain

marsbit52m ago

Collector Crypt's DAU Is Only 800, Yet It's Already One of Crypto's Most Profitable Projects?

"Collector Crypt: A Highly Profitable Crypto Project with Only 800 Daily Active Users?" Collector Crypt (CARDS) is a crypto project tokenizing physical graded trading cards (primarily Pokémon) on Solana, achieving significant real-world profitability and growth. According to a Maelstrom Fund analysis, it generated approximately $53M in annualized profit in May, with a June run-rate nearing $109M, against a $550M FDV. Its core revenue driver is a digital pack-opening 'Gacha' system. The platform bulk-buys cards at a 5-15% discount. Users can open digital packs and choose to keep cards or sell them back to the platform at a 7-15% discount to market price. Most users sell back common cards, creating an efficient model: users get packs with a ~2% positive expected value, while Collector Crypt captures ~4.5% profit. The project aims to disrupt the inefficient $22.2B GMV (Q1 2026) eBay trading card market, which charges sellers 16-20% in total fees. Collector Crypt offers 2% fees, instant settlement, insured custody, and one-click trading. Beyond Gacha, future revenue streams include secondary market trading fees, infrastructure partnerships, and an eBay "snipe" tool. It holds ~$23M in card inventory and ~$10M in cash, and has already begun token buybacks. With a total supply of 2B tokens, effective circulation post-2027 unlocks is estimated at ~1.3B. Trading primarily on DEXs has so far limited large institutional entry. The project is expanding into sports cards and attracting Web2 users. Maelstrom Fund's price target is $4 by summer's end, positioning Collector Crypt at the forefront of migrating collectibles on-chain.

Foresight News1h ago

Collector Crypt's DAU Is Only 800, Yet It's Already One of Crypto's Most Profitable Projects?

Foresight News1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

440 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions