SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Odaily星球日报Published on 2024-04-09Last updated on 2024-04-09

Abstract

从交易上看,近期IV和RV差值带来的Vol Premium吸引到了看跌短期波动的交易,ETH本周3400的Put遭到大量抛售,而在BTC方面,这种观点更多是由Sell Put/Call Spread的方式实现,保护了极端情况下的损益。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

昨天传统市场相对平静,美国三大股指皆为平收,但接下来的一周时间内将有大量重要的宏观数据发布,对关注美债的交易员来说,周三的 CPI 将是关注重点。过去几日债券市场收益率在意外的通胀数据和美联储官员的鹰派发言中走升,市场对未来利率政策的预期也逐步从“降息三次”“降息 50 个基点”的乐观降息派走向“高利率或将维持更长时间”的相对谨慎的观望态度。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar,本周将迎来繁忙的宏观数据发布

数字货币方面,BTC 在重回 70000 美元关口后再度挑战历史高点,在接近 73000 的位置发生反转,回调至 7 W 附近。从 Farside 提供的数据上看,过去一日 BTC ETF 首次出现较大的净流出量(-223.8 $M),其主要由于 IBIT 和 FBTC 的买入流量陡然减少,难以平衡 GBTC 单日超过 300 $M 的流出量,这或许是影响昨日 BTC 价格继续上行的消极因素之一。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView,BTC 挑战历史新高失败,价格回调至 7 W 美元

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Source: Farside Investors,BTC ETF 出现较大的净流出,主要由于 IBIT 和 FBTC 的买入流量陡然减少

在能够反应市场情绪的其他地方上我们观察到,在前一周 BTC 的期货杠杆多头遭遇大量清算以后,资金费率水平也出现显著回落,另一方面,期权市场反应出来的短期 Vol Skew 则是在过去三天内逐步回调到零轴以上,前端隐含波动率大幅下调,曲线走陡。各种情绪似乎都反应出趋于冷却的状态。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Source: Coinglass,在前段时间的杠杆多头被清算以后,资金费率水平得到回调

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Source: Deribit (截至 3A PR 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

 Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol,前端隐含波动率再度下跌

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew,短期 Vol Skew 逐渐反弹回正

从交易上看,近期 IV 和 RV 差值带来的 Vol Premium 吸引到了看跌短期波动的交易,ETH 本周 3400 的 Put 遭到大量抛售,而在 BTC 方面,这种观点更多是由 Sell Put/Call Spread 的方式实现,保护了极端情况下的损益,同时观察到四月底 75000-C 的大量净卖出,或是对 BTC 能够在本月突破历史高点发出质疑。但在远期上,BTC 仍得到了不少大宗 OTM 看涨期权成交,行权价高达 10 W/20 W 美元。

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Source:SignalPlus

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Data Source: Deribit,ETH 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Data Source: Deribit,BTC 交易分布

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

Source: Deribit Block Trade

SignalPlus波动率专栏(20240409):ETF大量净流出,BTC挑战新高失败

您可在 ChatGPT 4.0 的 Plugin Store 搜索 SignalPlus ,获取实时加密资讯。如果想即时收到我们的更新,欢迎关注我们的推特账号@SignalPlus_Web3 ,或者加入我们的微信群(添加小助手微信:xdengalin)、Telegram 群以及 Discord 社群,和更多朋友一起交流互动。

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433 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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