$29,700 Could Be The Next Big Level To Claim For Bitcoin, Here’s Why

newsbtcPublished on 2023-10-09Last updated on 2023-10-10

Abstract

On-chain data shows the true market mean price of Bitcoin is valued at $29,700 right now, making the level of particular significance for the coin. Bitcoin True Market Mean Price...

On-chain data shows the true market mean price of Bitcoin is valued at $29,700 right now, making the level of particular significance for the coin.
Bitcoin True Market Mean Price Is At $29,700 Currently
In a new post on X, the lead on-chain analyst at the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, “Checkmate,” pointed out how the BTC price currently trades below the true market cost basis.
The “market cost basis” refers to the average price at which the investors in the sector bought their coins. One popular way of calculating this cost basis is through the “realized cap,” which measures the total value of the cryptocurrency by assuming that the price at which each coin on the blockchain was last transferred is its true value.
When this capitalization model is divided by the total number of coins in circulation, the “realized price” is obtained, which is the average cost basis of the supply.
However, this method has some issues, such as a chunk of the circulating Bitcoin supply being permanently inaccessible (due to wallet keys becoming lost). A lot of this inactive supply would have traded long ago, meaning its cost basis would be shallow compared to today’s prices. Thus, if included in the metric, it would skew its value away from reality.
Checkmate and Ark Invest’s David Puell came up with “Cointime Economics” a while back, a new methodology that tackles the problems with the realized price.
“Cointime Economics introduces a simplified framework to efficiently discount the impact of lost supply and amplify economic impacts on the truly active supply,” explains Glassnode.
The chart below shows the trend in the “true market mean price” for Bitcoin, as calculated by this advanced model.

Bitcoin True Market Mean Price

Looks like the spot price of the asset is currently below this line | Source: @_Checkmatey_ on X
Based on this more accurate model, Bitcoin currently has a true mean price of $29,700. Therefore, the asset’s spot price is trading well below this level.
The graph shows that significant breaks above this indicator have historically resulted in the cryptocurrency enjoying some sustained bullish momentum.
Checkmate has also attached the “AVIV Ratio Z-Score” data in the same chart. The “AVIV Ratio” tracks the deviation from the true market mean that BTC is currently observing.
The Glassnode lead notes that this indicator is the most accurate measure of the market centroid for Bitcoin. At the current value, the metric is “still -0.6 standard deviations below its long-term mean,” according to the analyst.
The near-term outcome of the price based on this is uncertain, but in the long term, Bitcoin could see a reversion back to its mean, thus making the current price levels potentially profitable buying points.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $27,500, down 3% in the last week.

Bitcoin Price Chart


The value of the coin appears to have registered some drawdown today | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, charts from TradingView.com, Glassnode.com

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

28,000-Star Hit Creator Unexpectedly Fired by Google, Silicon Valley Big Shots Quickly Vie for the Talent

A nearly 7-year Google veteran, Justin Poehnelt, was fired shortly after his open-source project 'gws' (a Google Workspace CLI built in Rust) went viral, amassing over 28,000 GitHub stars. The tool, designed for both humans and AI agents, allowed terminal access to all major Workspace services like Gmail and Drive by dynamically generating commands from Google's own APIs. The dismissal came just two days after Google announced its "official" Workspace CLI at its Cloud Next 2026 conference, leading to widespread criticism that the company appropriated his work. Poehnelt believes the real reason was internal fear that his project demonstrated how AI agents could fundamentally disrupt and simplify interaction with Google's core Workspace products, potentially threatening its established business model. Following his public disclosure of the events, which garnered millions of views, tech leaders like OpenClaw's Peter Steinberger and CEOs from OpenRouter and Vercel swiftly offered him jobs, highlighting the perceived misstep by Google in letting a top-performing innovator go.

marsbit3m ago

28,000-Star Hit Creator Unexpectedly Fired by Google, Silicon Valley Big Shots Quickly Vie for the Talent

marsbit3m ago

Canada MSB, Why is it More Suitable for Teams Focused on Long-Term Payment Solutions?

**Canada MSB: Why Is It More Suitable for Teams Focused on Long-Term Payments?** Many crypto payment projects initially obtain a U.S. MSB registration for its cost-effectiveness and market recognition. However, as they scale operations, they often find it insufficient for sustainable, real-world payment business. This is where the Canadian MSB, regulated by FINTRAC, gains serious consideration. Unlike the U.S. framework, the Canadian MSB is not a "lightweight alternative" but a choice for projects committed to long-term, compliant operations, especially in B2B payments, cross-border settlements, and stablecoin transactions. **Key Distinctions:** The Canadian MSB emphasizes substantive, ongoing regulation. It requires establishing a full-fledged AML/CTF framework *before* launching operations, with continuous obligations for KYC, transaction monitoring, and reporting. This positions the holder as a regulated financial service provider from day one. **Operational Scope:** A properly structured Canadian MSB can support businesses like stablecoin/crypto payments and transfers, fiat-crypto exchange, B2B batch settlements, payment APIs for merchants, and underlying structures for services like crypto cards. **Strategic Advantages:** 1. **Bank & Partner Relations:** Its clear regulatory framework and operational requirements make it easier to explain compliance to banks and institutional partners, which is crucial for securing stable banking relationships. 2. **Centralized Path:** It offers a nationally unified system, avoiding the complexity and cost of navigating multiple U.S. state-level Money Transmitter Licenses (MTLs). 3. **Business Model Clarity:** It fosters long-term stability by requiring clear business structures, transparent fund flows, and real risk management from the outset, reducing future uncertainties. **Ideal Candidates:** The Canadian MSB is particularly suitable for B2B crypto payment platforms, cross-border stablecoin services, enterprise payment solutions, Web3 financial infrastructure projects, and teams building a "compliance benchmark" for sustainable growth. **Choosing Between U.S. and Canadian MSB:** The choice depends on the project's stage and goals. The **U.S. MSB** is better for **speed, initial validation, and early launch**. The **Canadian MSB** is better for **stability, substantive compliance, and long-term operation**, especially when serving B2B/enterprise clients and requiring reliable banking channels. In essence, while the Canadian MSB involves higher initial compliance rigor, it provides a more solid foundation for building a payment business that banks, partners, and regulators can accept over the long term.

marsbit23m ago

Canada MSB, Why is it More Suitable for Teams Focused on Long-Term Payment Solutions?

marsbit23m ago

Can Strategy rebound after its first close below $100 since 2024?

MicroStrategy's stock (MSTR) has fallen below $100 for the first time since March 2024, trading at $94.23 after a significant decline. Despite increasing its Bitcoin holdings to 847,363 BTC through recent share sales, the firm's strategy faces criticism. Market strategist Charlie Bilello warns of potential for further deep declines, citing historical precedents. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggests the company's aggressive Bitcoin purchases act more as a "liquidity sink" than a price catalyst, noting new buying is offset by selling pressure. He recommends pausing BTC buys to rebuild cash reserves. Analysis shows MSTR's stock price and its price-to-BTC reserve ratio are in decline, meaning investors are paying a much smaller premium for its Bitcoin acquisition strategy compared to prior bull markets. As Bitcoin's price struggles, scrutiny grows on MicroStrategy's leveraged treasury model and its need for greater capital discipline.

ambcrypto1h ago

Can Strategy rebound after its first close below $100 since 2024?

ambcrypto1h ago

CoinGecko Says Most Pump.fun Memecoins Die Within 24 Hours

CoinGecko research reveals that the majority of memecoins launched via the Solana-based platform Pump.fun fail within 24 hours, quantifying the extreme risk in the current memecoin launch culture. The data shows a roughly 70% first-day failure rate, shifting the narrative from anecdotal evidence to a statistical reality where failure is the norm, not the exception. While Pump.fun's simplicity fueled a surge in token creation and network activity, it also led to a high volume of low-effort, short-lived launches. The report serves as a warning that high launchpad activity does not equate to healthy demand or durability, emphasizing that traders entering this space are effectively betting against overwhelming odds. This insight adds crucial context to the ongoing wave of memecoin crashes and liquidity wipeouts within the broader crypto market.

bitcoinist2h ago

CoinGecko Says Most Pump.fun Memecoins Die Within 24 Hours

bitcoinist2h ago

The DATA Foundation Launches to Tackle AI’s Multi-Billion Dollar Training Data Bottleneck

Story has rebranded as The DATA Foundation and launched the DATA Network alongside Trace, a public audit layer for AI training data provenance and licensing. The launch includes a flagship integration with Kled, the world's largest opt-in human data marketplace, registering 1.5 billion user-contributed records. This move addresses the AI industry's multi-billion dollar bottleneck in sourcing high-quality, legally compliant training data, as the supply of scrapable public web data is exhausted. Trace provides immutable receipts for each data contribution, enabling verification of consent, licensing, and provenance. The ecosystem also includes Poseidon's data processing and the contributor app Numo. The foundation's thesis is that proving data origin and ensuring fair compensation is critical for advancing trusted AI. The existing $IP token will migrate to $DATA on a one-to-one basis.

TheNewsCrypto2h ago

The DATA Foundation Launches to Tackle AI’s Multi-Billion Dollar Training Data Bottleneck

TheNewsCrypto2h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

455 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions