暴拉暴砸,DWF Labs 的做市有何规律可循?

Foresight NewsPublished on 2023-10-07Last updated on 2023-10-07

Abstract

今天就来一起覆盘 DWF Labs 过去两个月做市的 6 种代币,价格走势中存在哪些规律。

今天就来一起覆盘 DWF Labs 过去两个月做市的 6 种代币,价格走势中存在哪些规律。

在流动性不足的熊市下,做市商成了不可或缺的角色,譬如提供项目流动性、增加市场深度、活络市场等。

而身兼做市商和 VC 的 DWF Labs 虽然达到活络市场和增加流动性的目的,但暴拉、暴砸的风格也引发争议。

由于风格明显有别其他做市商,甚至被认为有操纵市场的嫌疑。以下将 DWF 曾参与做市的代币对价格的影响分为两类:

DWF 的链上钱包转代币进交易所对价格的影响;

宣布协助项目做市的合作消息对价格的影响;

第一类

第一类(1)

以下图搭配链上转移纪录为例:

DWF Labs 在 DODO 和 PERP 第二波拉升后转入币安,随后价格转跌,吃掉前面大部分的涨幅。

第一类(2)

而 YGG 和 Cyber 价格走势也是如此。

但不同之处在于,在 YGG 和 Cyber 价格第一段拉升后,DWF Labs 就将代币转入币安。

随后再创第二波新高后,大幅回落。

第二类

接着来看合作消息公布后的价格走势。

从下图可见,MASK 和 APRA 的价格走势,截然不同。由此可见,利多消息带来的价格走势不如将筹码转入交易所,较不具规律性。

如何应用?

发现这些规律后,可以观察 DWF Labs 钱包持有哪些大量代币,当这些代币从链上转入交易所时,结合 OI、现货及合约交易量等数据,大致上可以推测出接下来可能的走势。

然而必须留意的是,虽然历史倾向于会重演,过往事件不保证会在未来会 100% 复制,DWF 也可能会利用人性的弱点,当你以为相同事件要再度上演,反割你一波。

因此,一旦 DWF Labs 再次出现大额链上转移时,可以根据价格走势和数据制定交易策略,并做好风控。

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