12.11 Today's Market: Why the Drop? BTC\SOL\ETH\BNB\ASTER\LUNA\AVAX\ENA\FIL Trading Analysis

金色财经Published on 2025-12-11Last updated on 2025-12-11

Abstract

The cryptocurrency market experienced significant liquidations in the past 24 hours, with 155,332 traders liquidated totaling $514 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid’s BTC-USD pair at $23.185 million. Market sentiment remains stable, with price movements largely driven by economic data and expectations around interest rate cuts. Key technical levels were highlighted for major cryptocurrencies: - **BTC** is consolidating near the $88,700–$89,000 support zone, with a critical resistance at $92,500. - **SOL** is testing support at $129, with further downside target at $125.3 if broken. - **ETH** faces resistance at $3,338, with key support near $3,130–$3,110. - **BNB** shows weakness, with resistance at $873 and support levels at $861 and $846. Altcoins like SOL, AVAX, and ENA are testing monthly support levels, suggesting potential rebound opportunities, though market sentiment remains cautious. Leverage structure varies across tokens: HYPE, XMR, and ASTER face long-side liquidation risks, while VIRTUAL, FIL, BON, and PEPE may see short squeezes. Notable mentions: - **LUNA** is showing signs of a rebound, but a bearish outlook remains. - **ASTER** is hovering near a psychological support at $0.90; a break below could trigger further decline. - Meme token **BudgyBenguin** saw high volatility but may have completed its correction phase. Three new tokens launched: $CYS (ZK + AI infrastructure), $BTX (music copyright RWA), and $U...

? In the past 24 hours, 155,332 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $514 million. The largest single liquidation occurred on Hyperliquid - BTC-USD, worth $23.185 million.

? Market sentiment is stable; the next move will be driven by data and rate cut expectations.

Current turnover rates are relatively high, mainly reflecting investor trading games at a critical stage. Turnover is expected to gradually decline after today. Data also indicate that recent turnover primarily comes from short-term investors who bought at low levels, with relatively significant reductions by new investors whose costs are below 90k.

The current chip structure of the market is generally normal, stability shows no abnormalities, and no panic selling is seen among high-position holders. The subsequent trend needs to pay attention to various economic data in December. If expectations for a January rate cut continue to strengthen, market热度 (heat) is expected to continue.

If you don't understand or are unsure of the direction, remember to follow me?

✅ Today's Market Analysis:

BTC

Bitcoin's key support today remains near 88700, with the pinning point focusing on the 86200-86700 range, though the probability of a pin is small. It is more likely to consolidate in the 89000-88000 zone, building strength for a rebound next week. In terms of operation, just reserve funds for potential pinning. Short-term pressure focuses on 92500, which is the bull-bear dividing line; the trend will be difficult to strengthen before breaking above this level.

SOL

The 129 support mentioned yesterday will be tested today. If lost, the next watch is 125.3. Before breaking through the short-term pressure at 137.7, the行情 (market/price action) can hardly be called strong.

ETH

Ethereum's pressure at 3444 was validated effectively yesterday, with a high touch of 3446. Today, the pressure has moved down to 3338; it will be difficult to have strong performance before breaking above this level. Lower support first looks at the 3130-3110 range, with the pinning point留意 (watch/note) 2940.

BNB

BNB is currently the weakest on the board. Watch the 873 position this afternoon. If the hourly candle closes above this level, then pressure依次 (in turn) looks at 882, 898, 915; if it cannot hold 873, support关注 (focus on) 861, 846, 830.

? Is it time to buy the dip in the altcoin market?

Observing the monthly chart trends of SOL, AVAX, and ENA, it can be seen that they have touched key monthly support levels. These represent the movements of mainstream coins, established public chain coins, and new coins from this bull cycle, respectively, also broadly reflecting the overall situation of the current altcoin market.

From a technical perspective, the current position already具备 (possesses/has) certain conditions for buying the dip, but market sentiment still seems cautious, with many investors still watching from the sidelines. If even monthly-level support cannot trigger an effective rebound, then the prospects for some altcoins may face more severe tests.

? The leverage structure in the recent altcoin market has shown significant分化 (differentiation/divergence).

Short positions in coins like HYPE, XMR, ASTER have been largely liquidated. The leverage piled up on the board now is mainly on the long side, which can easily trigger连环 (chain) long liquidations later, so the short-term trend for these coins is relatively weak.

Whereas VIRTUAL, FIL, BON, PEPE present the opposite pattern, with leverage concentrated on the short side, making the market more prone to short squeeze行情 (market moves/conditions), so their potential for subsequent rebounds should be greater.

$LUNA

This LUNA is also starting to rebound; it seems this market move is getting livelier. Wait for a good position, then you can go short on LUNA. I believe the final destination for this coin will most likely be to return from whence it came.

$BudgyBenguin

BudgyBenguin the tiger-striped penguin topped the热度 (heat/hype) charts last night and got an official interaction from BNBCHAIN. The first wave ATH was only 500k, bottoming out around 100k+. The first wave was mainly due to密集 (dense/frequent) KOL shilling, and historical experience shows that BSC热点 (hot topics/hypes) often deep wash first (this round saw an 80% drop on the hourly level, from 500k to 100k), not letting retail easily get筹码 (chips/positions). The wash might be over now, the走势 (trend/price action) is basically clear.

$ASTER

The manipulation手法 (technique/method) of this coin is very precise; the 0.9 level was tested several times without a real break, even briefly breaking it was immediately pulled back. The key is CZ has a position at this level, which became a psychological barrier and retail's defense line. It looks highly likely to break now; closely watch the 0.9 position. If it breaks effectively, go short directly.

Today's three Alpha

$CYS (ZK+AI infrastructure) will be listed at 4 PM, raised $21.85 million, operated by a domestic team, KuCoin同步 (simultaneously/sync).

$BTX (Music copyright RWA) will be listed at 6 PM, raised $6-9 million, Gate同步 (simultaneously/sync).

$US (SUI ecosystem stablecoin) open for claiming (5-10 $US per person), Bitget同步 (simultaneously/sync).

All projects hope to quickly land借助 (with the help of/riding on) the warming market.

Related Questions

QWhat was the total liquidation amount in the crypto market in the past 24 hours according to the article?

AThe total liquidation amount was $514 million, with 155,332 people liquidated.

QWhat is the key support level for Bitcoin (BTC) mentioned in the analysis?

AThe key support level for Bitcoin is around 88,700, with a potential dip zone between 86,200 and 86,700.

QWhich cryptocurrencies are mentioned as having greater rebound potential due to concentrated short leverage?

AVIRTUAL, FIL, BON, and PEPE are mentioned as having greater rebound potential because leverage is concentrated on the short side, making them prone to short squeeze rallies.

QWhat is the outlook for LUNA according to the author?

AThe author believes LUNA will eventually return to its origins (likely implying a significant decline) and suggests waiting for a good position to short it.

QWhich new tokens are scheduled to launch on the same day as the article, and what are their themes?

A$CYS (ZK + AI infrastructure) launching at 4 PM, $BTX (music copyright RWA) at 6 PM, and $US (SUI ecosystem stablecoin) is available for claiming, with distributions on KuCoin, Gate, and Bitget respectively.

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363 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

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