The on-chain metric that could signal a bear market reversal

cryptoslatePublished on 2023-02-23Last updated on 2023-02-23

Abstract

Given the historically different behaviors LTHs and STHs exhibit, the ratio between their realized prices can illustrate how the market dynamic is shifting.

Realized price is a metric often used to determine market movements in bear and bull markets. Defined as the value of all Bitcoins at the price they were bought divided by the number of circulating coins, realized price effectively shows the cost-basis of the network.

⠀

Dividing the network into cohorts can help us reflect the aggregate cost basis for each major group owning Bitcoin. Long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) are the two primary cohorts driving the market — LTHs are all addresses that held BTC for longer than 155 days, while STHs are addresses that held onto BTC for less than 155 days.

⠀

The LTH-STH cost basis ratio is the ratio between the realized price for long-term and short-term holders. Given the historically different behaviors LTHs and STHs exhibit, the ratio between their realized prices can illustrate how the market dynamic is shifting.

⠀

For example, an uptrend in the LTH-STH cost basis ratio is seen when STHs realize more losses than LTHs. This shows that short-term holders are selling their BTC to LTHs, indicating a bear market accumulation phase led by LTHs.

⠀

A downtrend in the ratio shows that LTHs are spending their coins faster than STHs. This indicates a bull market distribution phase, where LTHs sell their BTC for profit, which STHs buy up.

⠀

An LTH-STH cost basis ratio higher than 1 indicates that the cost basis for LTHs is higher than the cost basis for STHs. This has historically correlated with late-stage bear market capitulations that turned into bull runs.

⠀

⠀

2011

⠀

During Bitcoin’s first bear market in 2011, the STH realized price went below the LTH realized price. This trend reversal marked the beginning of a bear market which started on Nov. 22, 2011 and lasted until Jul. 17, 2012.

⠀

Long-term holders accumulated BTC throughout the bear market, dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and bringing their cost-basis down. Buying during suppressed prices created a new influx of short-term holders that pushed Bitcoin’s price up. This increase in STH accumulation caused the STH realized price to rise, increasing the overall cost-basis of the network with it.

⠀

⠀

2015

⠀

The 2015 bear market followed a similar pattern. On Jan. 8, 2015, the STH realized price dropped below the LTH realized price, triggering a bear market that lasted until Dec. 08, 2015.

⠀

While Bitcoin’s price began recovering in early November 2015, it wasn’t until the beginning of December that the STH realized price broke above the LTH realized price. At the time, the overall cost basis of the network increased slightly, triggering a bear market reversal that saw Bitcoin’s price go past $400.

⠀

⠀

2018

⠀

Bitcoin’s coveted rally to $20,000 in late 2018 ended when the STH realized price declined. It dropped below the LTH realized price on Dec. 20, 2018, pushing Bitcoin’s spot price way below its realized price.

⠀

The bear market ended on May 13, 2019, when the STH realized price bounced back above the LTH realized price.

⠀

⠀

2022

⠀

The STH realized price began descending at the beginning of September 2022, dripping below the LTH realized price on Sept. 22, 2022. It continued downward until Jan. 10, 2023, when it began a slow and steady rebound that almost brought it on par with Bitcoin’s realized price.

⠀

The STH realized price currently stands at $19,671, while the LTH realized price is $22,228. Bitcoin’s realized price is $19,876.

⠀

⠀

Data analyzed by CryptoSlate showed that 4-year cycles in the Bitcoin market end when the STH realized price flips both Bitcoin’s realized price and the LTH realized price. This creates a measurable market FOMO that triggers a parabolic run.

⠀

This flippening happened in 2011 after 9 months in a bear market, in 2015 after 11 months, and in 2019 after 6 months. It’s been 5 months since the STH realized price dropped below the LTH realized price in 2022.

Trending Cryptos

ctr
CitreaCTR
wstusdt
wrapped stUSDTWSTUSDT
apr
aPrioriAPR
ctx
Cryptex FinanceCTX
audio
AudiusAUDIO
mantra
MantraMANTRA
xvs
VenusXVS
waxl
AxelarWAXL
bill
Billions NetworkBILL
pyth
PYTH (Pyth)PYTH
rune
THORChainRUNE
velodrome
Velodrome FinanceVELODROME
brev
BrevisBREV
zrx
ZRX（0X）ZRX
cake
PancakeSwapCAKE

Related Reads

Deciphering the Ethereum Foundation's New Structure: Reaffirming Self-Sovereignty Amid Institutionalization Trends

Summary: The Ethereum Foundation (EF) has announced a major restructuring, laying off 20% of its staff and introducing a new five-layer operational framework. This move aims to clarify the EF's mission and reaffirm Ethereum's core principle of self-sovereignty amidst growing institutionalization in the crypto space. The five layers are: 1. **Protocol Layer**: Focuses on maintaining Ethereum's foundational "CROPS" values—Censorship-resistant, Robust, Open, Private, and Secure. This involves core technical work like secure hard forks and mitigating toxic MEV. 2. **Access Layer**: Ensures users can practically exercise self-sovereignty through actions like reading the chain and making transactions. A key principle is the "zero option," meaning a trusted, non-intermediated path must always exist as an alternative to any centralized service. 3. **User Layer**: Bridges the protocol and access layers by grounding EF's work in the real needs of users and organizations. This is seen as crucial for moving beyond a purely research-driven approach and ensuring development effectively serves the ecosystem. 4. **Community Layer**: Responsible for building and maintaining consensus around Ethereum's core values both internally and externally. This involves guarding against centralization, upholding technological neutrality, and preventing short-term commercial interests from undermining CROPS principles. 5. **Institutional Layer**: Manages EF's engagement with institutions, but with the precondition of self-sovereignty. The goal is not to make it easier for institutions to control users, but to demonstrate how Ethereum's technology can enable better integrations. The article argues that while institutional adoption brings legitimacy, it also risks diluting crypto's foundational ethos of decentralization. The new structure represents EF's effort to navigate this tension, upholding its core mission while actively engaging with a broader, more complex ecosystem.

marsbit6m ago

Deciphering the Ethereum Foundation's New Structure: Reaffirming Self-Sovereignty Amid Institutionalization Trends

marsbit6m ago

Interpreting the Ethereum Foundation's New Structure: Reasserting Self-Sovereignty Amid Institutionalization Trends

Ethereum Foundation (EF) has restructured into five distinct operational layers, aiming to clarify its mission while reaffirming the core values of self-sovereignty. This reorganization, accompanied by a 20% staff reduction, focuses on: Protocol Layer (upholding the CROPS principles: Censorship-resistant, Robust, Open, Private, Secure), Access Layer (ensuring users have non-custodial pathways for key actions), User Layer (bridging development to real user needs), Community Layer (maintaining and propagating Ethereum's value consensus internally and externally), and Institutional Layer (engaging with institutions without compromising self-sovereignty). The article discusses the tension between Ethereum's foundational decentralized ideals and the current trend of institutionalization in crypto. It argues that while welcoming institutional use is necessary, the ecosystem must not sacrifice its core tenets—like neutrality and resistance to centralized control—to short-term commercial interests. The new structure positions the EF to safeguard Ethereum's "public good" attributes, ensuring it remains a resilient and open platform even as the broader market evolves.

链捕手9m ago

Interpreting the Ethereum Foundation's New Structure: Reasserting Self-Sovereignty Amid Institutionalization Trends

链捕手9m ago

OpenRouter: How Did This 'AI Model Relay Station' Achieve a $10 Billion Valuation?

OpenRouter: The Model Router Building a $10B+ Company This article explores OpenRouter, a platform that aggregates access to over 400 AI models from 70+ providers (like OpenAI, Claude, Gemini) through a single API. It has grown into a unicorn with a $1.3B valuation by 2026, processing massive scale—reaching 100 trillion tokens monthly. Its core value isn't just being a "model supermarket." For developers building real-world AI applications, managing multiple models for different tasks (e.g., cheap models for titles, powerful ones for long articles) is complex. OpenRouter acts as a critical "model scheduling layer," handling routing, failover between providers, cost optimization, and enterprise features like zero-data-retention policies and budget controls. OpenRouter's business model is a "toll fee": it charges a small platform fee (5.5%) on purchased credits while passing model costs directly to users. Its revenue scales with the tokens flowing through its system, which saw explosive growth as AI apps evolved. Key growth drivers include: 1) The explosion of specialized models, increasing choice complexity; 2) AI apps shifting focus from performance to cost optimization; 3) The rise of AI agents that require more reliable, multi-step model calls. However, risks remain. Large enterprises or cloud providers (AWS, Google Cloud) could build similar internal gateways. Its position between model suppliers and developers could also create future tension over pricing and data control. To stay ahead, OpenRouter must deepen its enterprise features and prove it's more than just a request forwarder.

marsbit25m ago

OpenRouter: How Did This 'AI Model Relay Station' Achieve a $10 Billion Valuation?

marsbit25m ago

Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, We've Reached a New Low

Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000, Hitting a 20-Month Low Bitcoin fell below the key $60,000 psychological level again, reaching a low of $59,023—its lowest point in approximately 20 months, dating back to October 2024. While it later recovered slightly to around $60,600, this marks its third significant breach of $60,000 this year. The downturn is attributed to two primary factors. First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing their longest streak of net outflows since launch, with nearly $5.94 billion withdrawn over 30 days. This creates sustained selling pressure as Authorized Participants sell Bitcoin to meet redemptions. Second, shifting macroeconomic expectations are adding pressure. Strong U.S. job data and hawkish remarks from Fed officials have increased market pricing for potential rate hikes, reversing the earlier liquidity-driven bullish sentiment and prompting a shift away from risk assets like Bitcoin. Analyst views are mixed. 21Shares maintains a bullish long-term outlook, expecting prices to recover towards $100,000, citing historical post-halving cycles and substantial ETF holdings as a base. In contrast, Arthur Hayes predicts a potential bottom around $40,000 within six months due to persistent Fed hawkishness. CryptoQuant suggests, based on on-chain data, that the market may not find a bottom until prices fall below the average investor cost basis around $53,000, potentially extending the bearish phase into late 2026 or early 2027. The immediate focus is on upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed signals. Lower-than-expected CPI could offer relief, but confirmation of sticky inflation or continued ETF outflows may lead to further downside pressure. Bitcoin's ability to hold above $60,000 remains a critical test for the near-term market direction.

Odaily星球日报1h ago

Bitcoin Falls Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, We've Reached a New Low

Odaily星球日报1h ago

Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, What We've Waited For Is a New Low

Bitcoin has once again fallen below the key $60,000 psychological support level, hitting a low of approximately $59,023—its lowest point in nearly 20 months since October 2024. The price has since partially recovered to around $60,600. This decline is driven by two main factors. First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a historic wave of net outflows, losing roughly $5.94 billion over 30 days. Sustained institutional redemptions create direct selling pressure in the spot market. Second, shifting macroeconomic expectations are adding pressure. Strong U.S. job data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have increased market pricing for potential rate hikes, undermining the liquidity-driven bullish thesis for Bitcoin. Analyst views are mixed. 21Shares maintains a year-end target of $100,000, citing historical post-halving patterns and strong ETF accumulation. In contrast, Arthur Hayes predicts a potential drop to $40,000 within six months due to persistent Fed pressure. CryptoQuant notes that the average investor cost basis is around $53,000 and suggests the bear market could extend into 2026/2027 without clear signs of renewed demand. Market focus now turns to upcoming U.S. inflation data and Fed signals. Bitcoin's ability to hold the $60,000 level is seen as critical for determining the near-term market direction.

marsbit1h ago

Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000 Again; After 20 Months, What We've Waited For Is a New Low

marsbit1h ago

Trading

Spot
Futures

Hot Articles

What is $BITCOIN

DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): A Comprehensive Analysis Introduction to DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a blockchain-based project operating on the Solana network, which aims to combine the characteristics of traditional precious metals with the innovation of decentralized technologies. While it shares a name with Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perception as a store of value, DIGITAL GOLD is a separate token designed to create a unique ecosystem within the Web3 landscape. Its goal is to position itself as a viable alternative digital asset, although specifics regarding its applications and functionalities are still developing. What is DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) is a cryptocurrency token explicitly designed for use on the Solana blockchain. In contrast to Bitcoin, which provides a widely recognized value storage role, this token appears to focus on broader applications and characteristics. Notable aspects include: Blockchain Infrastructure: The token is built on the Solana blockchain, known for its capacity to handle high-speed and low-cost transactions. Supply Dynamics: DIGITAL GOLD has a maximum supply capped at 100 quadrillion tokens (100P $BITCOIN), although details regarding its circulating supply are currently undisclosed. Utility: While precise functionalities are not explicitly outlined, there are indications that the token could be utilized for various applications, potentially involving decentralized applications (dApps) or asset tokenization strategies. Who is the Creator of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? At present, the identity of the creators and development team behind DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) remains unknown. This situation is typical among many innovative projects within the blockchain space, particularly those aligning with decentralized finance and meme coin phenomena. While such anonymity may foster a community-driven culture, it intensifies concerns about governance and accountability. Who are the Investors of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN)? The available information indicates that DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) does not have any known institutional backers or prominent venture capital investments. The project seems to operate on a peer-to-peer model focused on community support and adoption rather than traditional funding routes. Its activity and liquidity are primarily situated on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), such as PumpSwap, rather than established centralized trading platforms, further highlighting its grassroots approach. How DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) Works The operational mechanics of DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) can be elaborated on based on its blockchain design and network attributes: Consensus Mechanism: By leveraging Solana’s unique proof-of-history (PoH) combined with a proof-of-stake (PoS) model, the project ensures efficient transaction validation contributing to the network's high performance. Tokenomics: While specific deflationary mechanisms have not been extensively detailed, the vast maximum token supply implies that it may cater to microtransactions or niche use cases that are still to be defined. Interoperability: There exists the potential for integration with Solana’s broader ecosystem, including various decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms. However, the details regarding specific integrations remain unspecified. Timeline of Key Events Here is a timeline that highlights significant milestones concerning DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN): 2023: The initial deployment of the token occurs on the Solana blockchain, marked by its contract address. 2024: DIGITAL GOLD gains visibility as it becomes available for trading on decentralized exchanges like PumpSwap, allowing users to trade it against SOL. 2025: The project witnesses sporadic trading activity and potential interest in community-led engagements, although no noteworthy partnerships or technical advancements have been documented as of yet. Critical Analysis Strengths Scalability: The underlying Solana infrastructure supports high transaction volumes, which could enhance the utility of $BITCOIN in various transaction scenarios. Accessibility: The potential low trading price per token could attract retail investors, facilitating wider participation due to fractional ownership opportunities. Risks Lack of Transparency: The absence of publicly known backers, developers, or an audit process may yield skepticism regarding the project's sustainability and trustworthiness. Market Volatility: The trading activity is heavily reliant on speculative behavior, which can result in significant price volatility and uncertainty for investors. Conclusion DIGITAL GOLD ($BITCOIN) emerges as an intriguing yet ambiguous project within the rapidly evolving Solana ecosystem. While it attempts to leverage the “digital gold” narrative, its departure from Bitcoin's established role as a store of value underscores the need for a clearer differentiation of its intended utility and governance structure. Future acceptance and adoption will likely depend on addressing the current opacity and defining its operational and economic strategies more explicitly. Note: This report encompasses synthesised information available as of October 2023, and developments may have transpired beyond the research period.

445 Total ViewsPublished 2025.05.13Updated 2025.05.13

What is $BITCOIN

Discussions

Welcome to the HTX Community. Here, you can stay informed about the latest platform developments and gain access to professional market insights. Users' opinions on the price of BTC (BTC) are presented below.

活动图片

Top Questions