How is the 'Bottom Structure' of a Bear Market Formed, and Where Are We Now?
This article analyzes the formation of Bitcoin's bear market "bottom structure" by examining the relationship between cost basis and price action, particularly the behavior of short-term holders (STH).
Historically, the cost basis of coins held for 1-3 months (1-3m_RP) has acted as a key resistance level during bear market rallies. This group's supply is often less committed; many entered the market expecting quick gains but were trapped. When the price rebounds to their break-even point, they tend to sell, creating resistance.
Data shows that as of mid-April, the 1-3m_RP is approximately $75,400, a level Bitcoin is currently testing for the second time this cycle. The first test in mid-January failed, leading to a pullback. The author suggests a high probability of a similar outcome this time, as historical cycles show the second test rarely results in an immediate reversal.
An alternative, less likely scenario is a break above this level, only to face stronger resistance at the broader STH-RP (average cost basis for all short-term holders) near $81,000, where a much larger supply of 2.31 million BTC resides. This could lead to price consolidation around the 1-3m_RP.
A definitive bottom structure is confirmed only when the 1-3m_RP trend reverses from down to up, signaling a transition from a bear to a bull market. This process takes time, requiring patience to observe whether breakouts are genuine.
marsbit04/16 05:54
