a16z: In Defense of Stablecoins

a16z發佈於 2022-08-11更新於 2022-08-11

文章摘要

Algorithmic stablecoins present a unique opportunity to make all sorts of assets productive and drive digital commerce around the globe.

This op-ed originally appeared as “In defence of stablecoins” on the Financial Times’s website on Monday, August 8, 2022, and in the newspaper’s print edition on Tuesday, August 9, 2022.

Crypto critics are using the collapse of dollar-pegged virtual currency Terra as ammunition to attack stablecoins and the crypto industry as a whole.

Lost in the conversation is, however, the root cause of the turmoil. A better understanding of what went wrong — and why — could help protect consumers while safeguarding innovation.

It’s important first to clarify terms. A stablecoin is cryptocurrency whose price is nominally “pegged” to a stable asset such as the U.S. dollar. People commonly blame the recent blow-up on so-called “algorithmic stablecoins,” which are typically programmed to automatically incentivize the creation and destruction of coins to maintain the price peg.

The attack on them is off the mark. Putting aside that TerraUSD should never have been considered a “stablecoin,” the real issue here has little to do with computer code and everything to do with a concept as old as finance itself: collateralization, or the use of assets to underpin value.

It is a crucial point that policymakers across the world need to consider as they draft legislation to prevent future Terra-like collapses. If legislators believe algorithms are to blame, they risk enacting counter-productive, innovation-stifling regulations. Poorly designed laws could disrupt markets, encourage regulatory arbitrage, and diminish Western democracies’ influence in the rising, decentralized internet economy known as web3.

The promise of decentralized finance — DeFi — rests largely on the breakthrough ability of blockchains to execute transparent, algorithmic contracts with instant finality.

Amid the recent market volatility, the vast majority of “decentralized” stablecoins backed by blockchain assets such as bitcoin and ether performed superbly, handling extreme price fluctuations and unprecedented redemptions without fail. Generally speaking, algorithms aren’t the issue with modern stablecoins. Instead, essentially all risk now arises from their collateral design.

The riskiest stablecoins are readily apparent: they are significantly under-collateralized (less than $1 of collateral is required to mint $1 of stablecoin), and they rely on “endogenous” collateral (collateral created by the issuer such as governance tokens that give holders voting powers on a blockchain’s rules and procedures).

Endogenous collateral enables dangerous, explosive growth: when an issuer’s governance token appreciates, users can mint many more stablecoins. That sounds fine until one considers the flipside: When the price declines — as is practically guaranteed during a bank run — cascading collateral liquidations to meet redemptions trigger a death spiral. See TerraUSD as an example.

Regulation is necessary to prevent similar breakdowns, but overly restrictive rules are not. The truth is enforcement actions under existing securities laws and anti-fraud statutes could have curtailed the proliferation of nearly every failed stablecoin to date.

Even so, additional, targeted regulation could be beneficial. While it is difficult to pinpoint exactly where regulators should establish collateralization requirements, it’s clear that without guardrails, stablecoin issuers may once again take on unreasonable amounts of risk.

Well-tailored rulemaking could support the crypto ecosystem and protect consumers. Wholesale changes — such as prohibiting the use of algorithms and digital assets as collateral altogether — would place an enormous burden on the burgeoning DeFi industry, disrupt digital asset markets, and hinder web3 innovation.

This is because stablecoins can, indeed, be stable if they manage their collateral properly. For “centralized” stablecoins backed by real-world assets, the liquidity and transparency of reserves may be low, so collateral should include less volatile assets like cash, treasuries, and bonds. Regulators can establish parameters regarding these types of collateral and require regular audits.

For “decentralized” stablecoins, the almost exclusive use of blockchain assets such as bitcoin or ether as collateral has trade-offs. Digital assets, while often volatile, are also highly liquid and can be transparently and algorithmically managed. Liquidity can happen nearly instantaneously, enabling much more efficient systems. As a result, decentralized stablecoins could, ultimately, be more resilient than centralized ones.

Algorithmic stablecoins present a unique opportunity to make all sorts of assets productive and drive digital commerce around the globe. Placing guardrails around their collateral could help unlock that potential.

你可能也喜歡

对话投资人郑迪:微策略卖币实验、AI经济和美股机遇

前沿科技投资人郑迪(didier)在访谈中分析了近期比特币下跌、微策略财务策略、AI经济影响及美股机遇等话题。 郑迪认为,比特币近期下跌的核心原因并非单纯宏观因素或ETF赎回,而是市场开始预期微策略(MicroStrategy)在“每股含币量中性”原则下,为支付优先股股息可能持续小额卖出比特币。这引发了市场对持续抛压的担忧,导致相关资金提前撤离。他认为,微策略创始人Michael Saylor正在测试市场对持续小额卖币的承接能力,这是一场与市场的博弈。但单凭此事不太可能引发“死亡螺旋”,后续若无重大利空,局面有望扭转。 关于AI驱动的美股上涨,郑迪指出,其核心驱动力在于Token(代币)正成为新时代的“劳动力”。AI和Token正在替代许多传统由人执行的工作,企业未来会将更多预算分配给Token、模型和算力,从而提升效率和利润率。这推动了上游芯片、光模块、数据中心等美股产业链的持续上涨,标志着机器经济时代的开始,具有中长期持续性。 针对加密交易所接入美股的现象,郑迪认为这是行业发展的自然趋势。由于真正有价值的加密原生资产有限,交易所转向美股等真实世界资产是寻找更具流动性标的的选择。这并不一定挤压加密资产,长期看,区块链技术为真实资产上链和未来的机器经济提供了基础设施,反而可能利好比特币。对于从加密市场转向美股的交易者,郑迪建议无需刻意改变交易逻辑,因为美股中同样存在类似山寨币的meme属性资产或价值成长股,可以找到熟悉的风格。 郑迪提到,“1011事件”对加密行业流动性造成重创,大量现金损失是压垮山寨币行情的最后一根稻草,相关炒作热情已转移至流动性更好的美股市场。 对于宏观前景,郑迪对下半年持更谨慎态度,因市场上涨后不确定性增加,且巨型公司(如SpaceX)上市可能带来流动性压力。中期选举结果也可能影响Web3和AI领域的政策环境。长期来看,他依然看好AI对生产率的提升以及AI与区块链的结合,认为未来将进入更产业化、机构化的阶段,但需关注技术带来的社会分配问题。

marsbit6 分鐘前

对话投资人郑迪:微策略卖币实验、AI经济和美股机遇

marsbit6 分鐘前

灰度抄底指南:利用现金流评估加密货币价值

本文探讨了在加密货币市场下跌背景下,如何利用现金流评估加密资产价值,并以去中心化借贷协议Aave为例进行深入分析。 核心观点认为,并非所有加密资产都适用相同估值方法。像比特币这类“类商品资产”依赖稀缺性和共识,而许多DeFi代币等“现金流资产”则与协议业务活动绑定,可通过分析协议收入、利润及代币价值捕获机制来估值。 报告指出,DeFi已成为能产生持续真实收入的赛道。Aave作为头部借贷协议,财务数据透明,拥有多元收入来源和雄厚国库。通过现金流折现(DCF)分析和与传统金融科技公司(市盈率约20-25倍)对比,灰度研究部认为AAVE代币当前合理估值区间为80-100美元(现价约75美元)。报告还预测,在监管明确化等利好情景下,其一年内价值可能升至约175美元。 文章强调,代币价值捕获机制至关重要,即协议如何将利润回馈给代币持有者(如回购、分红)。Aave通过治理演进,正加强协议经济与代币价值的绑定。同时,DAO的法律地位与监管政策(如《CLARITY法案》)仍是影响估值的关键不确定因素。 最后,报告认为市场正趋于成熟,资金从炒作项目流向具备实质收入、清晰商业模式和基本面的资产。投资者应关注如Aave、Uniswap等真正创造现金流的协议,运用基本面分析发现投资机会。

marsbit2 小時前

灰度抄底指南:利用现金流评估加密货币价值

marsbit2 小時前

交易

現貨
合約
活动图片