Key Takeaways
An analyst predicted that PENGU could be on its way to a similar rally as seen in July. Detailed price action, liquidity and chain activity suggest that there is more to this.
Pudgy Penguins [PENGU] has remained resilient despite last week’s sharp market drop following the post-Fed news rally.
At the time of writing, PENGU was down roughly 1% on the day, with trading volume slipping 3%.
The memecoin’s market cap hovered just below $2 billion, and analysts are now watching for signs of a repeat of last month’s rally.
Renewed market attention, especially following PENGU’s expansion into Asia, has fueled optimism for another upward move.
Will PENGU repeat July-August rally?
Per Ali Charts on X (formerly Twitter), PENGU was setting up for a potential rally. In July, PENGU rallied more than 417% with price surging from $0.009 to $0.037.
The surge came after the mass correction that followed the November to December rally. Ali’s post noted,
“PENGU continues to mirror the April–July fractal, where a similar consolidation preceded a buy-the-dip opportunity before another leg up!”
Further analysis suggests a potential 26% rally for PENGU, based on price levels that previously triggered a surge following the Jackson Hole Symposium.
However, before this rally materializes, PENGU could still slip back into bearish territory for a final dip.
The Chande Momentum Oscillator shows only moderate strength in the current uptrend, indicating that a smaller rally may be more likely.
For bullish momentum to continue, the price must break above the neckline of the forming double bottom pattern.
Source: TradingView
A breakdown would mean that the final dip per Ali Chart’s prediction could start as early as now. On-chain and liquidation heatmap data shed more light on what could unfold.
Where money moves next?
Most of the long orders resting below price after last week’s rally had been wiped. Similarly, short positions that were looking to close in profits had been closed.
PENGU was now aiming for the liquidity that was concentrated between $0.031 to $0.032. Millions of dollars worth of PENGU had been placed across this zone, making it a price magnet.
Source: CoinGlass
If a short squeeze happened on these orders, the 26% rally became more possible. Alternatively, price could trap breakout buyers at the zone leading to a slight dip for a retest.
Chain activity and its implications
Most of the on-chain data suggested a potential rally could be on the horizon. However, the locked 29% posed a sell-off risk as it would increase the supply in the market.
PENGU’s transactions per hour showed strength, but were yet to surpass yesterday’s peak of 2,782. At press time, the highest for the day was 2,062 transactions
Source: Dune
Meanwhile, Messari data highlighted PENGU’s ‘mindshare’ was very high. The sentiment reading was bullish with a value of 0.37.
Having said that, the next few sessions could be crucial in PENGU’s short-term trend.
