Key Takeaways
Ethena broke out past a resistance zone from February a week ago. Ethena’s USDe is pulling in huge inflows, and this capital is pursuing yield. The announcement of the first stablecoin-focused Ethena treasury company also bolstered bullish conviction.
Ethena [ENA] was up 17.6% over the past seven days, even though the price has retraced 10.45%, at press time, in the past 24 hours.
This retracement came after ENA reached the $0.67 resistance, a level that it had previously traded at in early February.
Source: ENA/USDT on TradingView
The 1-day price chart showed that the token was extremely bullish.
After spending months below the $0.485 resistance level, ENA broke through it and from resistance to support by late July. Its strong performance over the past week followed this key support/resistance flip.
The OBV has risen ever higher in July, capturing the steady buying pressure on ENA.
However, the MFI showed a bearish divergence developing in recent days. This helped explain the retracement, and the price dip might not be over yet.
With Bitcoin [BTC] falling below the $115k mark, a deeper dip across the crypto market could be imminent. Do on-chain metrics show a local top for Ethena?
ENA treasury, buybacks, and Hayes’s conviction
On the 25th of July, Lookonchain reported that Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, bought 2.16 million ENA, worth $1.03 million at the time. Arkham data showed he holds 7.76 million ENA worth $4.59 million.
The new Ethena treasury vehicle, StablecoinX, announced plans to pursue a “multi-year treasury strategy to build a reserve of ENA”.
This development is expected to be extremely bullish for Ethena in the long term. A $1 price target might not be just hype.
Source: Glassnode
July saw a swift increase in the daily active addresses. This kind of activity can mean a sell-off from holders realizing profits as ENA breached local highs.
Source: Santiment
Yet, the supply distribution did not show sustained selling pressure from holders. Across the array of holders, there was no cohort that was selling consistently, which was an encouraging factor.
In a post on X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted that whales continued to accumulate ENA tokens. The number of addresses with 100K-1M ENA balance grew from 514 to 574. The smaller addresses also continued to buy more Ethena.
The evidence all pointed toward a continued ENA rally, although traders and investors should beware of a short-term pullback and price volatility.
