Author: CryptoSlate
Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Deep Tide Guide: Bitcoin has just rebounded 11% from its 21-month low, but this rally is based solely on one weak jobs report. The minutes from Wednesday's Fed meeting will reveal whether officials are truly as concerned about an economic slowdown as the market expects. This document will determine whether the $64,000 level can hold or if prices will fall back to $58,000.
Bitcoin has rebounded 11% from the 21-month low hit on July 1st, but whether this rally can sustain depends entirely on the minutes from the Fed's June 16-17 meeting, to be released at 2 PM ET on Wednesday.
Traders are buying this rebound based on a macro assumption: a weakening U.S. labor market is limiting the Fed's time for continued hawkishness. These minutes are the first full record of internal discussions since Kevin Warsh became Chairman and will show whether officials were already aware of this issue in mid-June—weeks before the employment data that sparked this rally was released.
The answer matters greatly. On Tuesday, Bitcoin traded near $64,000, up nearly 11% from its low below $58,000 on July 1st. On Monday, volatility exceeded $3,400 in a single day, with violent swings between $61,250 and $64,659.
This rebound began with Thursday's U.S. jobs report, which showed employers added only 57,000 jobs in June, about half of economists' expectations. Weak labor data prompted traders to cut bets on another rate hike, with Bitcoin rising alongside gold and stocks—a repricing of U.S. interest rates, as described by Barron's.
Bitcoin Market Repriced Before Seeing Fed's Reasoning
The June meeting offered almost no positive signals for the crypto market. Officials held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, removed previous language hinting at a possible rate cut soon, and adjusted the median forecast for mid-2026 to anticipate at least one more hike. Bitcoin fell toward its lows over the next two weeks as the market priced in prolonged tightening.
But the jobs report changed everything. Beyond the weaker-than-expected headline number, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) downwardly revised job additions for April and May by a combined 74,000 positions. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% only because about 722,000 people left the labor force, pushing the participation rate down to 61.5%.
Traders responded by pushing back rate hike expectations: CME FedWatch pricing currently shows about a 76% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its July 28-29 meeting, with about a 40% chance of a hike by December.
If Wednesday's minutes show officials were already flagging risks of labor market weakness, tight credit, or overtightening, the market's dovish pivot would gain support, giving the rally a foundation.
If the discussion focused on persistent inflation and conditions for another hike—as Warsh has publicly stated—then this rally loses its main pillar. Bitcoin has already priced in substantial easing ahead of time, so if the document underperforms the market's dovish expectations, that alone could pressure prices. The bar for disappointment is low because the rally arrived prematurely.
A Single Day of Inflows and 49,000 BTC of New Exchange Supply
From an ETF perspective, this rally is equally fragile. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $223 million in inflows on Thursday, the largest single-day inflow since May, ending a 10-day outflow streak that saw $2.73 billion exit.
A single day of止血 did not reverse the trend: these products have shed nearly $8.5 billion since early May. Institutional demand needs several consecutive days of inflows to make the withdrawals look like an entry opportunity in the data.
On-chain flows add further caution. As prices returned above $60,000, whale-sized exchange deposits reached approximately 49,000 BTC, adding supply that could be sold if prices rise after the minutes release.
Options positioning is concentrated in the same area, with market makers' gamma clustered around $60,000 and $62,000—levels that could pin prices or accelerate a move, depending on the breakout direction.
Holding the $62,000 area after the minutes release would keep the rebound intact, while breaking above Monday's high near $64,700 would confirm the rally. Falling back to $58,000 would mark the jobs-driven rebound as a failed bear-market rally in a broader bear market that began from the all-time high of $126,198 last October.
Bitcoin's 11% rebound is built on speculation about what Fed officials discussed behind closed doors three weeks ago. Wednesday afternoon replaces speculation with meeting records, and the gap between the two will determine price direction.
