Can You Make a Steady Profit by Blindly Following Polymarket's Pre-Game Win Probability to Bet on NBA Games?
**Can You Consistently Profit by Blindly Following Pre-Game Win Probabilities on Polymarket for NBA Games?**
A backtest of the entire NBA 2025-26 regular season (1,096 games) was conducted to test the strategy of always betting $100 on the team with the higher pre-game win probability on Polymarket. The results show that this strategy is not profitable. The total amount wagered was $109,600, with a return of $107,545.20, resulting in a net loss of $2,054 and a Return on Investment (ROI) of -1.87%. This indicates that the market is highly efficient, and pre-game probabilities are accurately priced, leaving no simple arbitrage opportunity. In fact, blindly following the market would have been slightly less profitable than betting against it.
However, a deeper analysis by team revealed significant differences. Certain teams consistently outperformed market expectations when they were favored to win:
* Portland Trail Blazers (POR): 19% ROI
* Philadelphia 76ers (PHI): 14% ROI
* San Antonio Spurs (SAS): 12% ROI
* Los Angeles Lakers (LAL): 11% ROI
* Charlotte Hornets (CHA): 9% ROI
In contrast, the market was highly efficient for the top-performing teams, offering minimal returns (e.g., Boston Celtics ROI: 4%, Denver Nuggets ROI: -5%). Results for the weakest teams were too inconsistent due to small sample sizes. The key finding is that team-specific factors, rather than the probability percentage itself, drive potential value, making a one-size-fits-all strategy ineffective.
Odaily星球日报04/17 06:58
