Author| Aki WuShuo Blockchain
If one were to choose the most representative figure for the Ethereum bull narrative in 2025, Tom Lee, Chairman of Ethereum treasury company BitMine and Co-founder & Chief Investment Officer of Fundstrat, would often be placed in the most prominent position. He has repeatedly emphasized in public statements that ETH is undervalued, stating at the Binance Blockchain Week on December 4th that Ethereum at $3,000 was "severely undervalued," and has previously given a high target price judgment of "$15,000 for ETH by the end of 2025." As a Wall Street veteran known as the "Wall Street Soothsayer" and a strategist long active in media and institutional roadshows, Tom Lee's views are often seen as a sentiment barometer by the market.
However, when the market shifts its gaze from the camera to internal institutional documents, the tone reverses: in the latest 2026 outlook strategy advice from Fundstrat, founded by Tom Lee, for its internal subscription clients, a contrary view is presented. Its baseline forecast suggests that crypto assets may experience a significant pullback in the first half of 2026, with an ETH target range of $1800–$2000. This discrepancy between "publicly calling for gains" and "internal bearishness" has also pushed Tom Lee himself and his associated institutions into the spotlight of public opinion.
Core Predictions and Views of Fundstrat's "2026 Crypto Outlook"
The report was issued by Sean Farrell, an analyst at Fundstrat responsible for crypto asset research, currently serving as Head of Digital Asset Strategy, primarily covering strategy research and view output related to the crypto market and blockchain. The report is mainly aimed at its internal subscription-based clients, with a monthly subscription fee of $249.
The report paints a starkly different short-term market expectation for internal clients than the public sentiment, anticipating a significant market correction in the first half of 2026: Bitcoin could fall to $60,000–$65,000, Ethereum to $1,800–$2,000, and Solana to $50–$75, stating that these correction zones would be good opportunities to build long positions. If the market does not experience a deep correction as expected, the team also tends to maintain a defensive strategy, waiting for clear trend strengthening signals before entering the market.
The report explains that the above pessimistic scenario is not a turn towards a long-term bear market but a "strategic reset" risk management measure. Fundstrat points out several short-term headwinds that could suppress the crypto market in early 2026: including a potential US government shutdown, uncertainty in international trade policy, fading confidence in AI investment returns, and policy suspense brought by the Federal Reserve Chair succession, among others.
These macro factors combined with high volatility could trigger a valuation pullback for crypto assets in a tight liquidity environment. Fundstrat emphasizes that this adjustment is a "correction, not a crash," believing that sharp declines are often the prelude to a new round of gains. After digesting risks in the first half of the year, the market is expected to strengthen again in the second half.
The report even gives optimistic targets for the end of 2026: Bitcoin $115,000, Ethereum $4,500, and特别提到以太坊可能在本轮调整中表现出相对强势, the report points out that Ethereum has some structural advantages: after switching to PoS consensus, there is no selling pressure from miners, unlike Bitcoin which has持续抛售的压力 from miners; it also lacks potential selling pressure factors from large holders like MicroStrategy. Furthermore, compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum faces lower concerns about quantum computing threats.
These factors mean that Ethereum may better resist selling pressure in the medium term. It can be seen that the tone of Fundstrat's internal research report is偏向谨慎, although long-term仍然看涨, but short-term it advises internal clients to increase holdings of cash and stablecoins and patiently wait for better entry points.
Tom Lee's Publicly Optimistic Predictions for Ethereum in 2025
In stark contrast to Fundstrat's internal report, its co-founder Tom Lee has played the role of a "super bull" in public场合 throughout 2025,多次发布远超市场实际的 Bitcoin and Ethereum price expectations:
Bullish on Bitcoin early in the year, according to CoinDesk, Tom Lee raised his Bitcoin year-end 2025 target to a high of approximately $250,000 at the beginning of the year. In July-August 2025, as Ethereum prices surged strongly接近历史高位, Tom Lee publicly stated that Ethereum could reach $12,000–$15,000 by the end of 2025, calling it one of the biggest macro investment opportunities for the next 10–15 years.
In August, he further raised the target price on CNBC, stating that Ethereum was entering a key inflection point similar to Bitcoin's in 2017. In 2017, Bitcoin started from less than $1,000 and rose to $12,000 (Note:原文为12万美元，但历史高点是约2万，此处按原文12万翻译，但加注说明历史事实是约2万) driven by the "digital gold" narrative, achieving 120-fold growth. Since the "Genius Act" gave the green light to stablecoins, ushering in a "ChatGPT moment" for the crypto industry, and the core advantage of smart contracts does not apply to Bitcoin, he predicted this is Ethereum's "2017 moment," and a price increase from $3,700 to $30,000 or even higher is not impossible.
Super cycle rhetoric: Entering the autumn行情, Tom Lee依然维持极端乐观立场. In November 2025, he stated in an interview, "We believe ETH is开启类似 2017–2021 年 Bitcoin那样的超级周期",暗示 Ethereum has the potential to replicate Bitcoin's hundred-fold increase trajectory in the coming years.
Dubai Summit speech: At the Binance Blockchain Week in early December 2025, Tom Lee again shocked with bullish shouts, predicting that Bitcoin could soar to $250,000 "within months," and直言当时约 $3,000 的 Ethereum price was "severely undervalued".
He pointed out through historical data comparison that if the ETH/BTC ratio returns to its eight-year average (approx. 0.07), the ETH price could reach $12,000; if it returns to the 2021 relative high (approx. 0.16), then ETH could rise to $22,000; and in an extreme scenario where the ETH/BTC ratio rises to 0.25, theoretically Ethereum's valuation could exceed $60,000.
Short-term new high expectations: Even facing market volatility at the end of the year, Tom Lee did not收敛 his bullish言论. In mid-December 2025, he stated in a CNBC interview that "I don't think this rally is over yet," and bet that Bitcoin and Ethereum will hit new all-time highs before the end of January next year. At that time, Bitcoin had already risen above the 2021 high, while Ethereum was around $3,000, still about 40% away from its historical high of $4,954.
The above list of predictions covers almost most of the time nodes in 2025. On the unbias fyi Fundstrat analysis page, Tom Lee is labeled as a "Perma Bull (长期多头)". Every time he speaks, he gives the market higher target prices and more optimistic time horizons. However, these激进预测 are far from the actual price movements. This series of facts has led the market to question the credibility of the "Wall Street Soothsayer" Tom Lee.
Who is Tom Lee
Thomas Jong Lee, often referred to as Tom Lee, is a well-known US stock market strategist, research director, and financial commentator. He started on Wall Street in the 1990s, working at Kidder Peabody and Salomon Smith Barney, joined J.P. Morgan in 1999 and served as Chief Equity Strategist from 2007.
In 2014, he co-founded the independent research institution Fundstrat Global Advisors and served as Head of Research, transitioning from an investment bank strategist to the head of an independent research institution. He is regarded as one of the较早将 Bitcoin纳入主流估值讨论的 Wall Street strategists. In 2017, he published a report titled "A framework for valuing bitcoin as a substitute for gold,"首次提出 Bitcoin has the potential to partially replace gold as a store of value.
Due to his highly media-oriented research and views, Tom Lee often appears on mainstream financial programs and events as the "Head of Research at Fundstrat" (including CNBC related program/event pages and video content referencing his title). Since 2025, his influence has further extended to the "Ethereum Treasury" narrative: According to Reuters, BitMine, after advancing financing related to Ethereum treasury strategy, added Fundstrat's Thomas Lee to its board of directors to support its Ethereum-oriented treasury strategy. Meanwhile, Fundstrat also continues to release market outlooks and view snippets featuring Tom Lee as the core through its own YouTube channel.
Contradiction: The Contrast Between Public High-Profile Pumping and Internal Caution
The contradictory statements made by Tom Lee and his team on different occasions have sparked heated discussions within the circle about their motives and integrity. In response to the recent controversy, Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, posted a response stating that there is a misunderstanding of Fundstrat's research process externally.
He stated that Fundstrat has multiple analysts internally, each using independent research frameworks and time scales to serve the goals of different types of clients; among them, Tom Lee's research is more oriented towards traditional asset management institutions and "low allocation" investors (typically allocating only 1%–5% of assets to BTC/ETH), emphasizing long-term discipline and structural trends, while he himself mainly serves portfolios with a higher proportion of crypto assets (approx. 20%+). However, Tom Lee himself did not declare that he was targeting the group that "allocates 1%–5% of assets to BTC/ETH" when publicly pumping ETH.
Farrell further stated that his cautious baseline scenario for the first half of 2026 is about risk management, not a turn towards bearishness on the long-term prospects of crypto. He believes that current market pricing is偏向"近乎完美", but risks such as government shutdowns, trade volatility, uncertainty in AI capital expenditure, and the Federal Reserve Chair succession remain. He also listed his historical performance, stating that his token portfolio has grown approximately 3 times since mid-January 2023, and his crypto stock portfolio has risen about 230% since its inception, with an excess of about 40% relative to BTC. During their respective existence, both have likely outperformed most liquid funds. But this wording seems more like a weak justification for Bitmine's $3 billion paper loss and the founder's contradictory statements.
Conclusion: The Contrast Isn't the Problem Itself; the Problem Lies in Disclosure and Boundaries
What真正引起争议 about this matter is not that Fundstrat has different frameworks, but that the co-founder lacks sufficiently clear scope of application and interest disclosure between the public communication end and the service end.
Sean Farrell's explanation of the contradictory statements using service to different types of clients is logically viable, but at the communication level, it still cannot avoid three problems:
1. When Tom Lee frequently expresses strong optimism about ETH in public videos and media interviews, the audience does not默认 this is "only applicable to long-term allocation discussions for low allocation positions," let alone automatically understand the implied risk premises, time scales, and probability weights. He himself has not publicly made clear clarifications and scope of application regarding this.
2. The subscription model of FS Insight /Fundstrat is essentially "research monetization". The official website page directly displays subscription guides like "Start Free Trial" and features Tom Lee for promotion. Tom Lee is the core招牌人物 at Fundstrat. The FS Insight page directly labels him as "Tom Lee, CFA / Head of Research". When traffic and subscription growth come more from Tom Lee's public interviews in various media, how does the company convince the public that "this is just expressing personal views".
3. Public information shows that Tom Lee concurrently serves as Chairman of the Board of Ethereum treasury strategy company BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), and the company regards ETH as one of its core treasury directions. Under this identity structure, his continuous "bullish on ETH" communication externally will naturally be interpreted by the market as highly consistent with the interests of the associated entity. For CFA charterholders, professional ethics also emphasize making "full and clear disclosure" of matters that may affect independence and objectivity.
Such controversies usually involve compliance issues: anti-fraud and conflict of interest disclosure. In the context of US securities law, Rule 10b-5 is a typical anti-fraud clause, the core of which is to prohibit material false or misleading statements related to securities transactions.
Furthermore, Fundstrat's entity structure makes the controversy more complex: Fundstrat Global Advisors emphasizes in its terms and disclosure documents that it is a research company, "not a registered investment adviser, nor a broker-dealer," and subscription research is "for client use only." But at the same time, Fundstrat Capital LLC clearly provides advisory services as an "SEC-registered investment adviser (RIA)".
Considering that public interviews and the operation of the Fundstrat Youtube channel事实上承担了"customer acquisition/marketing" functions, another question arises: which content belongs to personal research dissemination, and which content belongs to company marketing. If an institution's public video channels continuously publish "pumping snippets," while the subscription service端 publishes "bearish for the first half of the year" predictions, and does not simultaneously present key limiting conditions and risk frameworks on the public communication end, then it will at least constitute a selective presentation under information asymmetry.
This may not violate the law, but it will continuously erode public trust in the independence and credibility of research, and will also blur the boundaries between "research — marketing — narrative mobilization." For research institutions whose reputation is one of their core businesses, this kind of trust cost will eventually backlash against the brand itself.
