Crossing Boundaries Is Hard: Neither Prediction Market Nor Perp DEX Leader Has Replicated Their Own Success
Over the past six months, two of the hottest trading sectors—prediction markets and Perpetual DEXs (Perp DEXs)—have been attempting to cross into each other's territories. In April, prediction market platform Polymarket announced plans to launch perpetual contracts (Perps) for crypto, stocks, and commodities. In late May, the regulated platform Kalshi launched CFTC-regulated crypto Perps. Meanwhile, leading Perp DEX Hyperliquid moved in the opposite direction, launching its HIP-4 outcome markets for event-based trading in May.
Initial results from these crossovers have been mixed, showing that established user habits and liquidity do not easily transfer to new product categories. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 platform saw strong initial demand, with daily volume reaching nearly $30 million during the World Cup, but active markets have since collapsed from over 120 to under 20, with daily volume often falling below $1 million. This highlights the inherent challenge: perpetual contracts maintain liquidity around core assets, while event contracts expire and require constant renewal of interest and liquidity.
Similarly, Polymarket's Perps, still in an invite-only phase, saw daily volume drop from an initial ~$48 million to around $18 million by late July, with open interest (OI) at only ~$26.4 million—a fraction of Hyperliquid's ~$7.7 billion OI. Kalshi's Perps had a faster start, accumulating $16.1 billion in volume over six weeks, but recent daily volume has plummeted over 80% to around $80 million, with OI remaining in the millions, far below major Perp DEXs.
The article concludes that replicating the deep liquidity and entrenched user behavior of a core market is exceptionally difficult. For these platforms, deepening their dominance in their original "home" sectors—whether Perp DEXs or prediction markets—may be a more viable strategy than pursuing a broad "everything exchange" model through跨界 expansion. Success ultimately depends on sustained accumulation of users, liquidity, and market depth in a core niche.
Odaily星球日报07/27 12:20
