# Пов'язані статті щодо Rate Cuts

Hormuz Strait Reopening: Will the Fed Turn "Dovish" and the Market Reprice "Rate Cuts"?

The article outlines two key factors that may lead the U.S. Federal Reserve, under Chair Wash, to adopt a more dovish stance at the upcoming FOMC meeting. First, the anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to ease oil and energy prices, thereby reducing upward inflationary pressures. This shift could lead the Fed to view energy prices as a neutral or even deflationary factor. Second, recent core CPI data showed significant cooling, with a monthly increase of only 0.21%, contrasting with the still-strong core PCE. This divergence supports a dovish interpretation. Market implications are significant. While the FOMC is expected to remove "easing bias" language and project unchanged rates for the year—moves already priced in—Chair Wash's potential for more dovish commentary presents an upside risk. Consequently, there is room for the market to further price out remaining hike expectations and increase expectations for rate cuts. The report notes that the 2-year Treasury yield, though down recently, remains well above February levels, indicating further potential downside as inflation risks fade.

marsbit7 год тому

Will Warsh Compromise with Trump? A Look at the 70-Year Power Struggle Between the President and the Fed

Will the Fed's new chair, Kevin Warsh, yield to pressure from President Trump? A White House-administered oath ceremony for Warsh breaks recent precedent, spotlighting a seven-decade power struggle between the presidency and the Federal Reserve. Historically, each Fed chair has balanced political pressure with policy independence. Warsh's situation, however, is uniquely complex, inheriting a divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with some members opposing even hints of rate cuts, while Trump expects easing. The report from Caitong Securities reviews this history: from William Martin establishing independence, to Arthur Burns compromising under Nixon, Paul Volcker building institutional credibility, Alan Greenspan navigating political waters, and Jerome Powell facing severe pressure from Trump, ultimately hardening the Fed's defensive stance. Warsh, a former Fed governor known for questioning quantitative easing, is not a traditional dove. His recent statements emphasize a nuanced view of Fed independence, skepticism of forward guidance, serious concern over inflation (contradicting Trump's "fake inflation" claims), and the potential for AI-driven productivity gains to allow rate cuts. The analysis concludes Warsh's policy will likely feature a clear direction but cautious pace. Rate cuts are probable but constrained by persistent inflation above target; if Trump pressures heavily, Warsh may delay cuts to defend Fed independence. Balance sheet reduction is seen as necessary but will be gradual to avoid premature conflict. Ultimately, Warsh's path will depend more on macroeconomic trends—inflation, growth, oil prices—than on his personal stance or the immediate political relationship.

marsbit05/22 01:57

The Richest Fed Chair in History? Three Challenges Kevin Warsh Is About to Face

Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump as the next Federal Reserve Chair, faces three major challenges as he prepares to take office. With a personal investment portfolio exceeding $130 million, including holdings in crypto protocols and public chains, he is set to become the wealthiest Fed chair in history. Warsh, known for his historically hawkish stance, has recently shifted his position, arguing that AI is a powerful deflationary force that could boost productivity. However, rising CPI and energy prices pose a risk to this outlook. He strongly defended Fed independence, stating that it is eroded not by political pressure but by the institution’s own missteps, such as blurring the lines between monetary and fiscal policy during the 2021-2022 inflation period. Additionally, Warsh advocates for significant balance sheet reduction while potentially cutting rates—a combination that markets find unsettling. He also proposes modernizing inflation measurement with real-time data, including stablecoins and on-chain pricing, to improve policy responsiveness. His confirmation is currently delayed due to a political investigation into current Chair Powell, adding uncertainty to his appointment.

marsbit04/24 00:36

"New Fed News Agency": Regardless of Whether a Ceasefire Agreement is Reached, the Outlook for Fed Rate Cuts Remains Bleak

Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed Whisperer," argues that a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran would not brighten the Federal Reserve’s dimming prospects for interest rate cuts. Instead, it would replace one economic challenge with another: an energy shock that could prolong inflationary pressures without severely damaging demand, thereby keeping rates higher for longer. The Fed’s March meeting minutes revealed that officials were already cautious about cutting rates even before the conflict, as progress on inflation had stalled while the labor market remained stable. While a ceasefire might reduce the risk of a worst-case recession scenario, it could also leave underlying inflation pressures intact. Energy and commodity prices that rose during the conflict may not fully retreat, and financial conditions could loosen amid post-ceasefire optimism. The Fed is weighing dual risks: a sudden labor market downturn that would warrant rate cuts, and persistent above-target inflation that might require hikes. Although most officials still expect at least one cut this year, some have grown more hesitant. Even if the conflict ends quickly, supply chain "echo effects" and geopolitical vulnerabilities may keep inflation elevated, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance.

marsbit04/09 02:27

2008-style crisis ahead? – How crypto investors are reacting to ‘zero rate cuts’

With expectations of zero rate cuts and persistent inflation risks, crypto market dynamics are shifting toward capital preservation. While the total crypto market cap remains stable near $2.4 trillion, defensive positioning is evident as stablecoin supply hits a new all-time high of $316 billion. USDT outflows and declining exchange reserves indicate investors are moving liquidity into on-chain stablecoins, preparing to redeploy when risk appetite improves. Analysts warn that sustained high yields and borrowing costs could heighten systemic risks, echoing pre-crisis conditions. This cautious stance suggests stablecoins are becoming a key hedging tool amid deteriorating macro conditions.

ambcrypto03/21 11:07

After 6 Quarters of Calling for Rate Cuts, Rate Expectations Are Instead Moving Upwards

In September 2024, the Federal Reserve began its rate-cutting cycle, projecting a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by the end of 2025—implying four additional cuts. However, six quarters later, the March SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) reveals a significant shift: the rate now stands at 3.50%-3.75%, 25 basis points higher than initially expected. The median projection for 2026 has also risen from 2.9% to 3.4%. The Fed’s internal consensus has fractured. Out of 19 FOMC participants, seven now expect no rate cuts in 2026, while seven anticipate only one cut. This 7:7 split reflects a fundamental disagreement over the direction of monetary policy, moving from debates over the magnitude of cuts to whether cuts should occur at all. Persistent inflation is the core issue. The Fed has consistently revised its PCE inflation forecasts upward over the past six quarters, with the 2026 projection now at 2.7%—up 0.6 percentage points from initial estimates. Core PCE, a key indicator of underlying inflation, was revised up sharply to 2.7%, signaling entrenched price pressures. Despite slightly raising its GDP growth forecast to 2.4% and holding unemployment steady at 4.4%, the Fed’s unchanged median rate projection conflicts with its own rising inflation outlook. Market expectations remain more dovish, pricing in around 50 basis points of cuts, but the Fed’s internal division and consistent underestimation of inflation suggest continued uncertainty. The central bank is effectively chasing reality, with no clear consensus on the path ahead.

marsbit03/19 02:30

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has Forecasted More Rate Cuts

TheNewsCrypto02/27 12:46

Rate Cuts Watch: FOMC Minutes, PCE Inflation and Jobs Data To Move Crypto

This week's crypto market focus is on key U.S. economic data that could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, due Wednesday, may reveal the Fed's internal debate on inflation and growth, potentially shifting rate-cut expectations without a policy change. Thursday's jobless claims will test whether the labor market is cooling, a crucial factor for the Fed's timing. Friday brings the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—and the Q4 GDP report, which will provide insights into economic resilience. Markets have recently increased odds of a June rate cut, making any surprises in these releases highly impactful. Crypto, particularly Bitcoin, is sensitive to changes in rate expectations, as they affect Treasury yields, the dollar, and overall risk appetite.

ccn.com02/16 10:13

CEA Chair Stephen Miran Resigns, Expresses Support for Rate Cuts as Crypto Prices Plunge

Stephen Miran, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), has resigned from his White House position. His departure, described as non-political, follows his earlier commitment to a short tenure. Miran expressed support for interest rate cuts in 2026, aligning with President Trump's stance, citing current monetary policy as "too tight" despite inflation being above the 2% target. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency prices have significantly declined, with the total market cap dropping nearly 2% to $2.59 trillion. Bitcoin fell 2.79%, and other major tokens like ETH and BNB also saw losses. This downturn coincides with market uncertainty from conflicting signals on future rate cuts, as the Federal Reserve appears less inclined to reduce rates. Billionaire investor Ken Griffin attributed the US dollar's recent loss in value to volatile fiscal policy and rate cut expectations. He welcomed the appointment of the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, who supports rate cuts, which could potentially boost investor appetite for risky assets like cryptocurrencies.

TheNewsCrypto02/04 07:05

Interest Rate Cuts? Trump's 'Perfect Candidate' Might Be Even Tougher to Handle Than Powell!

President Trump has nominated Kevin M. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor with strong Wall Street ties, to be the next Fed chair, praising him as potentially "one of the greatest" in history. However, Trump’s strong desire for significant interest rate cuts—potentially to around 1%—faces major obstacles. The current rate stands at 3.5%-3.75%, and the economy shows steady growth with no clear need for aggressive cuts. Warsh, often labeled an inflation hawk, has shown flexibility in the past and recently argued there is room for rate reductions if productivity gains from AI offset inflation risks. Still, he would need to persuade a skeptical Federal Open Market Committee, where several regional bank presidents are hesitant about further cuts. Colleagues and observers describe Warsh as a pragmatic operator who understands markets and values Fed independence. He is expected to base decisions on economic data rather than political pressure, despite Trump’s expectations. If confirmed, Warsh would face intense scrutiny over every policy move amid concerns about the Fed’s independence.

比推01/30 22:21