# Пов'язані статті щодо Polymarket

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Polymarket", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

Zuckerberg Enters the Prediction Market

Mark Zuckerberg's Meta has entered the predictive markets arena with a new app called "Arena." Currently in an early experimental phase, Arena will initially operate as a standalone app using a points-based system where users can predict outcomes on politics, sports, and world events without real money. Meta plans to leverage its vast daily active user base for growth. The move comes as the predictive market industry sees explosive growth, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi handling hundreds of billions in volume. While a points system avoids initial regulatory hurdles, Meta hasn't ruled out introducing real-money betting later. The strategy aligns with Meta's pattern of adopting popular trends, though challenges remain, including regulatory scrutiny and the historically mixed success of its standalone apps.

Foresight News7 год тому

Zuckerberg Enters the Prediction Market

Foresight News7 год тому

Meta Launches Prediction Market, Code-Named "Arena": Not Using Real Money, 3.56 Billion Daily Active Users Are Its Biggest Bargaining Chip

Meta, under the codename "Arena," is developing a standalone prediction market application, according to a June 23 report by The New York Times. Initially, the app will operate on a points-based system rather than real-money betting, though future integration of financial transactions is not ruled out. Meta plans to leverage its vast ecosystem of apps, boasting 3.56 billion daily active users, to distribute the product. The strategy aims to lower user acquisition costs and navigate regulatory complexities associated with real-money prediction markets, which are overseen by bodies like the CFTC. News of Meta's entry caused stock dips for established players like DraftKings and Robinhood, reflecting market concerns over Meta's potential to disrupt incumbents like Polymarket and Kalshi with its massive scale. The prediction market sector has seen explosive growth, with monthly trading volume on major platforms surging to approximately $24 billion as of April 2026. This marks Meta's second foray into the space, having launched and later shut down a similar virtual-points app called Forecast in 2020. While Arena poses a competitive threat to crypto-based platforms like Polymarket, its mainstream reach could also significantly expand the overall user base and awareness for prediction markets. The project remains in development with no public launch timeline, but its announcement has already impacted market sentiment.

marsbit8 год тому

Meta Launches Prediction Market, Code-Named "Arena": Not Using Real Money, 3.56 Billion Daily Active Users Are Its Biggest Bargaining Chip

marsbit8 год тому

WSJ: Fake Websites, Fake Trades, Real Promotion: Polymarket's Traffic Scam

The Wall Street Journal investigation reveals that prediction market platform Polymarket hired dozens of creators, primarily students, to produce and disseminate deceptive promotional content on social media. These creators used fake, near-identical clone websites (like "poiymarket.com") to simulate placing bets and winning large sums—totaling $1.9 million in fake wagers and nearly $900,000 in fake winnings across over 1,100 analyzed videos—without disclosing their paid partnership with Polymarket, as required by federal advertising regulations. The videos, often promoting unrealistic "free money" claims, were amplified by a coordinated "army" of social media accounts managed by a marketing contractor to target U.S. users, despite Polymarket's crypto platform being barred from serving the U.S. since a 2022 settlement. Polymarket stated it is committed to fair and transparent markets and plans a comprehensive audit of its promotional content. The article also notes internal discussions about potentially overturning the 2022 settlement to reintroduce its crypto platform in the U.S.

marsbitВчора 06:54

WSJ: Fake Websites, Fake Trades, Real Promotion: Polymarket's Traffic Scam

marsbitВчора 06:54

The Insurance Industry Faces Its Biggest Competitor: Are Prediction Markets the "Barbarians at the Gate"?

The insurance industry, long a stable "ballast" in the economy, may face a significant challenge from the rise of prediction markets, which are beginning to function as a new form of risk hedging and insurance. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are demonstrating their utility in areas traditionally dominated by insurers. Examples include Kalshi's partnership with sports insurance broker Game Point Capital to offer more cost-effective hedging for NBA team performance bonuses, and Polymarket's collaboration with real estate platform Parcl, allowing users to hedge against housing price fluctuations in major US cities. A New York bar also used Kalshi to hedge a marketing promotion tied to an NBA game outcome, highlighting prediction markets' potential for small business risk management. These markets offer advantages over traditional insurance and sports betting in transparency, liquidity, and flexibility. They allow information monetization across a wider range of events, act as neutral platforms rather than direct counterparties, and provide clearer pricing. A historical precedent is the "Mattress Mack" marketing campaigns, which used sports betting for large-scale customer refunds, but prediction markets offer a more systematic and accessible model. Experts like SIG CEO Jeff Yass see their potential for efficient, parameter-based risk sharing, such as for weather-related property damage. However, challenges remain, including liquidity issues, unclear regulatory boundaries, and potential manipulation of event outcomes. Despite these hurdles, prediction markets represent a growing competitive force for both traditional gambling platforms and segments of the insurance industry.

marsbit2 дні тому 10:16

The Insurance Industry Faces Its Biggest Competitor: Are Prediction Markets the "Barbarians at the Gate"?

marsbit2 дні тому 10:16

A New Player Enters at Third Place, Rothera Disrupts the Prediction Market Landscape

"Rothera Skyrockets to Third in Prediction Market Rankings, Disrupting Industry Landscape" Rothera, Robinhood's newly launched prediction market platform, has rapidly climbed to become the third-largest player in the sector by trading volume, trailing only giants Kalshi and Polymarket. Its growth is attributed not to attracting new users, but to migrating existing Robinhood user orders away from partner Kalshi. Previously, Robinhood served as a major distribution channel for Kalshi, accounting for an estimated 25%-35% of its volume. With the launch of Rothera, Robinhood now internally executes events like World Cup contracts, capturing revenue that was previously shared with Kalshi. Data shows Rothera's weekly trading volume surged from $21.9 million to $559 million within weeks, reaching nearly one-fifth of Polymarket's volume. Analysts estimate Robinhood's prediction market business could generate around $10 billion in annual revenue at this pace, potentially surpassing its historical crypto revenue peak. In response, Kalshi is reportedly exploring new distribution channels by engaging with investment banks for a potential IPO, requiring them to integrate their systems with Kalshi to access institutional clients. This shift highlights a new competitive focus in prediction markets: controlling user access and distribution channels rather than just product offerings.

marsbit2 дні тому 09:07

A New Player Enters at Third Place, Rothera Disrupts the Prediction Market Landscape

marsbit2 дні тому 09:07

Swooping to Third Place, Rothera Disrupts Prediction Market Landscape

The article "Rothera Shakes Up Prediction Market Landscape, Debuts at No. 3" details the rapid rise of Rothera, Robinhood's newly launched in-house prediction market platform. Originally, Robinhood acted as a major distribution channel for Kalshi, routing 25-35% of its user orders to Kalshi for execution, which involved revenue sharing. Rothera allows Robinhood to capture this value internally by migrating orders, particularly for events like the World Cup, to its own platform. This has led to explosive growth for Rothera, with weekly trading volume soaring from $21.9 million to $559 million in just two weeks, making it the third-largest prediction market behind Kalshi and Polymarket. Analysts estimate Robinhood's prediction market business could generate $10 billion in annual revenue, surpassing its crypto revenue peak. This growth represents a direct challenge to Kalshi, which is now seeking new distribution channels, including talks with investment banks for a potential IPO, to integrate its platform with institutional client networks. The key takeaway is a shift in the competitive landscape: success is increasingly defined not just by product offerings but by controlling the user distribution channels and value capture, as demonstrated by Rothera's swift ascent.

Odaily星球日报2 дні тому 09:04

Swooping to Third Place, Rothera Disrupts Prediction Market Landscape

Odaily星球日报2 дні тому 09:04

My Coding Betting Dashboard is Profiting, but Polymarket is Truly Not a Good Place for 'Arbitrage'

The author built a custom monitoring dashboard for Polymarket, a prediction market platform, and tested it with $1,600, achieving over 30% returns. However, the core argument is that Polymarket is not a good venue for traditional arbitrage. The dashboard has two main sections: a "Portfolio Dashboard" for tracking active positions with key metrics like total capital, P&L, and a risk-control module using a tier system (T1, T2, T3), and an "Opportunity Watchlist" for monitoring markets. The article details a critical structural trap in binary markets: a bet with a high perceived probability of success still carries a 100% loss risk if wrong. The author's T1/T2/T3 system is designed to manage this by limiting position sizes based on conviction and time horizon, emphasizing that high confidence should not equal high concentration. A key insight is the danger of "pseudo-diversification"—betting on different markets driven by the same underlying variable. The author concludes that Polymarket offers few true low-risk, arbitrage opportunities. It is instead a high-risk environment where wins can create a false sense of mastery, leading to large losses. The platform is better viewed as a training ground for honing judgment through disciplined, framework-driven betting rather than a reliable income source. The tools help transform intuition into structured, rule-based decisions to mitigate the risk of catastrophic errors.

marsbit06/18 14:36

My Coding Betting Dashboard is Profiting, but Polymarket is Truly Not a Good Place for 'Arbitrage'

marsbit06/18 14:36

Football Draw Harvests Whales: Extreme Profit-Loss Divergence on Polymarket's World Cup

A bettor known as "fishalive" made a stunning profit of nearly $9 million on the Polymarket prediction platform by correctly wagering against favorites during the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage. The account, registered just before the tournament, risked roughly $400,000 on two contracts for a Spain vs. Cape Verde match: one that Spain would *not* win, and another on a Cape Verde +2.5 goal handicap. The resulting 0-0 draw triggered both payouts. This single event, with a total market volume of $64 million, highlighted extreme profit-and-loss divergence. Other traders, like "betoor619" and "leeeeroyjenkins," lost millions by betting heavily on favorites Spain and Belgium to win outright—contracts that become worthless in a draw. The article explains that while markets heavily favored strong teams, the "team to win" contracts are binary and do not account for the common outcome of a draw. This creates high-risk, low-reward scenarios for favorite backers, while asymmetric profits flow to those betting on underdogs or against outright wins. The transparency of Polymarket's on-chain ledger publicly documents these massive wins and losses, driving mainstream media coverage. As the tournament progresses, the author suggests traders may shift towards hedging strategies that account for draws. The piece also notes growing regulatory scrutiny in the US and Europe, questioning whether such large-scale, anonymous sports prediction markets should be regulated as gambling or financial derivatives.

Foresight News06/18 06:02

Football Draw Harvests Whales: Extreme Profit-Loss Divergence on Polymarket's World Cup

Foresight News06/18 06:02

World Cup Kicks Off, Spotlight on 'Big Wins' and 'Major Losses' in Prediction Markets

"The World Cup has begun, showcasing dramatic gains and losses in prediction markets. With the 2026 FIFA World Cup expected to generate up to $10 billion in consumer betting volume, platforms like Polymarket have seen explosive activity. The article highlights several high-profile traders. One user (@mintblade) achieved a 100% win rate across four bets, earning $9.24 million in a single day, including a $7.34 million profit from correctly predicting Iran would not win against New Zealand. Another new wallet (@Fishalive) turned a $4.22 million bet on Spain not winning against Cape Verde into $13.28 million, a 1000%+ return after a shocking draw. Other successful traders include @LEEEROYJENKINS with $5.2 million in profits and @endlessFate, who turned early losses into over $7.85 million in weekly gains. However, significant losses also occurred. User @betoor619 lost nearly $1 million after a heavily favored Spain failed to defeat Cape Verde. Another user, @weatherman12, lost over $1.81 million betting against Argentina, which won 3-0 with a Lionel Messi hat-trick. The report serves as a reminder of the high volatility and risk in sports prediction markets, where unexpected outcomes are common."

Odaily星球日报06/18 05:12

World Cup Kicks Off, Spotlight on 'Big Wins' and 'Major Losses' in Prediction Markets

Odaily星球日报06/18 05:12

Polymarket's Sixth Anniversary: Bathroom, Exile, and Homecoming

Polymarket, a prediction market platform, recently celebrated its sixth anniversary. Born during New York's COVID-19 lockdown, founder Shayne Coplan built the initial product from his bathroom. The platform allows users to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, aiming to aggregate information faster than traditional media or polls. Its early years involved navigating regulatory challenges, most notably a 2022 CFTC order and penalty for offering unregistered event contracts, which led to a ban on U.S. users. Despite this "exile," the platform persisted, gaining significant traction during major news events like the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where its markets often preceded mainstream narratives. A pivotal shift occurred in 2025. Following the conclusion of a DOJ/CFTC investigation, Polymarket strategically acquired a CFTC-regulated exchange (QCX) to re-enter the U.S. market legally. It secured a massive strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), NYSE's parent company, and formed high-profile partnerships with sports leagues like the NHL, UFC, and MLB, as well as media outlets including Google and the Wall Street Journal. Now valued in the tens of billions, Polymarket stands at the intersection of crypto, finance, media, and sports. Its journey reflects a constant tension between innovative information aggregation and regulatory scrutiny, evolving from a fringe crypto experiment into a mainstream, albeit still contested, financial and data infrastructure.

marsbit06/18 04:12

Polymarket's Sixth Anniversary: Bathroom, Exile, and Homecoming

marsbit06/18 04:12

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