# Пов'язані статті щодо Lockup

Центр новин HTX надає останні статті та поглиблений аналіз на тему "Lockup", що охоплює ринкові тренди, оновлення проєктів, технологічні розробки та регуляторну політику в криптоіндустрії.

SpaceX Shares Predicted to Recover No Earlier Than Early 2027

Analysts predict that a significant recovery in SpaceX's share price is unlikely before early 2027, when the current insider lock-up period is scheduled to end. Recently, shares have traded in a narrow range around $118-$124, still 48% below their 52-week high of $225.64. The short-term outlook depends heavily on potential insider selling, especially with the 52-week low of $110.85 acting as a floor. SpaceX's market capitalization stands at $1.56 trillion, but the company is not yet profitable, as evidenced by a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and an additional $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026, attributed to heavy investments in Starship and AI infrastructure. The stock is currently trading at over 84 times trailing revenue, a valuation analysts say depends on a substantial future increase in Starlink's cash flow. The unlocking of 911.5 million shares worth ~$116 billion on August 6, 2026, followed by a phased release schedule, adds significant uncertainty. Quarterly results on August 4, 2026, could provide a short-term catalyst if Starlink performs strongly or Starship milestones are met. Wall Street analyst consensus for a 12-month price target is around $240, but individual forecasts vary widely from $63 to $800, reflecting deep divisions over the company's recovery prospects and future valuation. Key ratings include Morgan Stanley's $300 target and Oppenheimer's more modest $190 target.

cryptonews.ru2 дні тому 11:04

SpaceX Shares Predicted to Recover No Earlier Than Early 2027

cryptonews.ru2 дні тому 11:04

Pump.fun Unlocks $86.49 Million in PUMP Tokens as Three-Year Vesting Begins

Pump.fun has initiated the first unlock of its PUMP tokens following the expiration of a one-year lock-up period for team and investor allocations. According to analysis by EmberCN, a total of 57.279 billion PUMP tokens, valued at approximately $86.49 million, were distributed to 121 separate wallets. This event marks the beginning of a scheduled three-year vesting period. The distribution process is designed to gradually release tokens over several years, a method intended to prevent a sudden, large increase in circulating supply. The one-year lock-up that preceded this unlock prevented any team or investor tokens from entering the market until now. Market participants are monitoring this and future unlock events as they proceed according to the project's established token distribution timeline.

TheNewsCrypto07/15 07:32

Pump.fun Unlocks $86.49 Million in PUMP Tokens as Three-Year Vesting Begins

TheNewsCrypto07/15 07:32

SPCX Pre-Market Dips Below $150 IPO Price, But Don't Rush to Buy Yet

SpaceX's share price (SPCX) has fallen sharply, briefly dropping below its $150 IPO price in pre-market trading. The decline follows a catastrophic explosion during a Starship static fire test and was exacerbated by the company's announcement of a planned $20 billion bond issuance. This move, coming soon after its IPO raised $85.7 billion, raised concerns about SpaceX's cash burn rate and AI infrastructure spending surpassing expectations. The sell-off is also tied to a broader global pullback in AI-related stocks, with investors questioning the return on massive capital expenditures. Analysts note the initial IPO surge was largely driven by retail investor frenzy, which has now waned as sentiment turns cautious. With only about 5% of shares currently floating, the market is bracing for significant potential selling pressure when employee lock-up periods expire later this year. While some, like Cathie Wood's ARK Invest, remain long-term bullish on SpaceX's core ventures, other research firms argue the current stock price is driven by narrative rather than fundamentals and that future growth is already priced in. The next potential catalyst is the stock's possible inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index in July.

Odaily星球日报06/23 08:53

SPCX Pre-Market Dips Below $150 IPO Price, But Don't Rush to Buy Yet

Odaily星球日报06/23 08:53

Those Who Wanted to Buy Have Already Bought: SpaceX Retail Frenzy Subsides, Real Selling Pressure Arrives in August

SpaceX (SPCX) debuted on June 12 at $150, soared to a record $225 by June 16 in a retail-fueled frenzy, then collapsed, losing over $600 billion in market cap in a single day this week and crashing back near its IPO price. Analysts note the initial surge was driven by record retail inflows exceeding those for major tech stocks, but momentum evaporated swiftly after the peak. The sell-off occurred with only 5% of shares freely tradable. The real pressure is yet to come: lock-up expirations starting in August could release up to 44% of insider shares by early September, potentially increasing the float ninefold. With retail buying exhausted and massive supply looming, analysts warn the path higher is now severely challenged, posing a broader risk to a market sustained by speculative momentum.

marsbit06/23 04:06

Those Who Wanted to Buy Have Already Bought: SpaceX Retail Frenzy Subsides, Real Selling Pressure Arrives in August

marsbit06/23 04:06

How Will the Price Move Before SpaceX's Next Share Unlock?

TL;DR Investors buying SPCX after SpaceX's IPO are not simply investing in a typical tech stock. It’s a high-valuation asset driven by Musk's narrative, Starlink, and space transport potential, but with a key twist: a very small initial float of ~4% has led to significant post-listing price appreciation. The current price action reflects a timing gap. Before the first lock-up expiration (estimated around August, subject to official confirmation), scarcity and high demand could continue to push prices up. Short-term bulls focus on low float, FOMO, and potential index inclusion. However, bears point to the supply dynamics that will change post-lockup. Existing shareholders still hold over 95% of shares, which will be released in stages starting from the first unlock window. This introduces future selling pressure from low-cost holders. The upcoming Q2 earnings report is a critical catalyst before the unlock. It will test whether the company's fundamentals can justify the current ~$2.1T valuation. Strong results could support the pre-unlock momentum, while weak figures could amplify concerns about future supply. The trading thesis is shifting from immediate scarcity ("can't buy enough") to evaluating future absorption capacity ("who will buy when more supply hits"). The path ahead hinges on the specifics of the unlock schedule, Q2 earnings performance, and whether anticipated passive index buying materializes.

marsbit06/15 06:31

How Will the Price Move Before SpaceX's Next Share Unlock?

marsbit06/15 06:31

The Backside of Musk's Trillion-Dollar Fortune: 85% Can't Be Sold

Elon Musk becomes the world's first trillionaire, driven by SpaceX's IPO valuing the company at $1.77 trillion. However, his vast wealth is largely illiquid: he holds over 85% voting control, likely through super-voting shares that are subject to lock-ups and selling restrictions. While his net worth surpasses $1 trillion across SpaceX, Tesla, and private holdings, only a tiny fraction (potentially under 2% annually) could be converted to cash without jeopardizing control and market confidence. SpaceX's IPO also creates paper millionaires for roughly 4,400 employees, but their holdings face lock-up periods, exercise costs, and taxes, delaying and reducing actual cash proceeds. Only 4.2% of total shares are initially available for public trading, making the stock price highly sensitive to limited net buying or selling pressure. A major test will come when lock-ups expire for the remaining 96% of shares. The article contrasts SpaceX's wealth distribution with potential AI IPOs. Anthropic and OpenAI could generate employee wealth pools 20 times larger than SpaceX's in paper value, due to their higher valuations relative to revenue and potentially more distributed ownership. However, sustaining those high price-to-sales multiples post-IPO is uncertain. A key financial puzzle for SpaceX investors is its xAI unit. While it has locked in an estimated $26 billion in annual compute revenue from clients like Anthropic and Google, the unit reported a $6.4 billion loss in 2025. More critically, estimated annual capital expenditures of ~$30.8 billion exceed that revenue. The long-term viability of SpaceX's AI narrative hinges on whether this compute income can eventually cover the unit's massive ongoing investments and losses.

链捕手06/13 02:39

The Backside of Musk's Trillion-Dollar Fortune: 85% Can't Be Sold

链捕手06/13 02:39

Who Will Take Over After SpaceX's IPO?

SpaceX is set to go public on June 12 with a $1.8 trillion valuation, but only about 5.56 billion shares (4.2% of the total) will be initially available for trading. Buy-side pressure is expected in three distinct waves. First, the IPO subscription at a fixed $135 per share, which is oversubscribed by nearly 4 times. Second, immediate secondary market trading post-listing. Third, and most significant, the forced buying by passive index funds. The Nasdaq 100 index has modified its rules to include SpaceX just 15 trading days after its IPO, despite its small float, which will compel hundreds of tracking funds to buy large quantities of stock. However, this initial supply shortage will not last. A staged lock-up release is designed for the approximately 54% of shares held by VCs, early employees, and other insiders (excluding Elon Musk's 42%, which is locked for 366 days). Releases begin after the Q2 earnings report, with subsequent unlocks at multiple intervals up to 180 days post-IPO. This means selling pressure from insiders will gradually increase throughout the latter half of the year. A key counterbalance is scheduled for mid-December during the Nasdaq 100's annual rebalancing. By then, the public float will have expanded significantly, forcing index funds to buy more shares, potentially providing institutional support after months of insider selling.

marsbit06/12 00:45

Who Will Take Over After SpaceX's IPO?

marsbit06/12 00:45

SpaceX's Core Window for Listed Trading: July 7th Nasdaq Inclusion Date and Post-Q2 Earnings Lockup Expiration

SpaceX is set for its historic IPO on June 12 at $135 per share, with a paper valuation of $1.75 trillion. A key insight from analyst Alexandra Mertz highlights the IPO's unique structure, where an extremely low initial public float of only 4.3% is expected to create a significant supply vacuum. This scarcity is set to collide with massive forced buying from index funds like Vanguard, CRSP, and FTSE Russell, which are scheduled to start adding SpaceX to their indices as early as June 18/22 and July 7 (NASDAQ 100 inclusion). This could propel the stock price sharply higher, with AI models like Grok predicting a potential doubling from the IPO price around July 7. Another critical date is the post-Q2 earnings call (estimated late July), when early insider shareholders (excluding Elon Musk, who has a 366-day lock-up) become eligible to sell. However, actual selling pressure may be only 10-15% of shares, as major holders like Ron Baron and BlackRock have expressed intentions to hold or buy more. The discussion introduces a compelling "Goldilocks scenario": a potential stock-for-stock merger announcement between SpaceX and Tesla in the window between the July 7 price peak and the late-July unlock period. This timing could help Elon Musk manage a personal $7 billion tax liability related to exercising Tesla stock options by August 15, while leveraging high valuations for both companies. Furthermore, the inclusion of former Tesla adversaries like Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan as SpaceX IPO underwriters is seen as a strategic move to secure their "yes" votes for a potential Tesla merger approval in a November shareholder vote. The rationale for SpaceX acquiring Tesla, rather than the reverse, centers on SpaceX's superior governance structure, which offers Musk stronger control through super-voting shares and mandatory arbitration clauses, protecting the combined entity from activist investors and legal challenges.

marsbit06/10 12:20

SpaceX's Core Window for Listed Trading: July 7th Nasdaq Inclusion Date and Post-Q2 Earnings Lockup Expiration

marsbit06/10 12:20

Whale.io Launches Whale Printer: $WHALE Token Staking

Whale.io has launched "Whale Printer," a new on-platform staking system for its native $WHALE token. The feature allows eligible holders to lock their tokens for fixed periods to earn predetermined rewards. Three lock-up options are available: 90 days with a 1.2x multiplier (107.8% APY), 180 days with a 1.5x multiplier (129% APY), and 365 days with a 3x multiplier (200% APY). Multipliers and rewards are fixed at the start of the staking period. Rewards are distributed from a dedicated, non-replenishing pool of 20 billion $WHALE (20% of total supply). Once this pool is exhausted, the Whale Printer will close permanently, incentivizing early participation. Users can stake tokens directly from their Whale.io account balance, with support for up to 10 concurrent staking positions per account. Early withdrawal is not permitted. $WHALE is the utility token for the Whale.io crypto casino and sportsbook ecosystem, distributed through gameplay and user activity rather than private sales. The staking mechanism adds new functionality and a reward structure for token holders. Whale Printer is now accessible via whale.io/token.

TheNewsCrypto06/03 14:08

Whale.io Launches Whale Printer: $WHALE Token Staking

TheNewsCrypto06/03 14:08

Morningstar Valuates SpaceX at Only $780B, Less Than Half of IPO Target, 'Largest IPO Ever' Overpriced?

Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 billion ahead of its IPO, far below the company's $1.75 trillion target. The research firm's DCF model values the core launch and Starlink businesses at $611 billion and assigns only a $170 billion probability-weighted valuation to the AI segment (including xAI). Analyst Nicolas Owens calls the company "severely overvalued," citing a near-100x price-to-sales ratio based on 2025 revenue. Despite the bearish long-term view, Morningstar acknowledges short-term price support from low float and potential rapid inclusion in the Nasdaq 100. The IPO is set for June 12, featuring an unusual tiered lock-up expiration that could create selling pressure over time.

marsbit06/03 05:01

Morningstar Valuates SpaceX at Only $780B, Less Than Half of IPO Target, 'Largest IPO Ever' Overpriced?

marsbit06/03 05:01

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