Analyst Forecasts Bitcoin's Movement in August
Analyst Forecasts Bitcoin Movement in August
Bitcoin ends July under market caution due to a lack of new macroeconomic catalysts and regulatory uncertainty, according to Bitbanker analyst Andrey Poroshin. He forecasts that in August, BTC may first test the $60,000–$62,000 range before recovering to around $70,000.
The analyst notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve's neutral stance provided no strong market signals, with inflation remaining above target. Currently, Bitcoin trades below the U.S. mining cost range of $73,000–$75,000, a key global profitability benchmark, though costs are lower in some countries like Russia.
Significant July events include the bankruptcy of derivatives exchange BitMEX, which Poroshin views as a capitulation of weaker market participants, often preceding potential reversal zones. Retail investor activity has declined, with many placing stop orders in the $60,000–$62,000 range, where significant liquidity is concentrated and could be tested.
While geopolitical factors like U.S.-Iran tensions are losing market impact, regulatory uncertainty persists as the U.S. CLARITY Act vote was postponed to September. Typically, August sees lower trading activity due to holidays, leading to more technical, less volatile price movements.
Poroshin's base scenario for August is a test of $60,000–$62,000 followed by a recovery to $70,000, with more significant moves likely in September post-Fed signals and potential CLARITY Act developments.
Separately, a Russian deputy finance minister stated that non-qualified investors in Russia will soon be allowed to legally purchase Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major stablecoins, with an annual limit of 300,000 rubles per intermediary.
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