# Trade War İlgili Makaleler

HTX Haber Merkezi, kripto endüstrisindeki piyasa trendleri, proje güncellemeleri, teknoloji gelişmeleri ve düzenleyici politikaları kapsayan "Trade War" hakkında en son makaleleri ve derinlemesine analizleri sunmaktadır.

The New Cold War is a Tech Stock War

The New Cold War is a Tech Stock War The article argues that the contemporary geopolitical and economic rivalry between the US and China represents a "New Cold War," but one fundamentally fought through technology and financial markets, not physical barriers or conventional trade. Historically, US dominance was secured through financial systems. The Soviet Union, reliant on the rigid "Transferable Ruble," was ultimately undermined by its dependency on the US dollar for oil trade. Later, Japan's semiconductor challenge was countered not just by tariffs (e.g., Plaza Accord, 301 investigations) but by binding it to US Treasury bonds. China presents a more complex, "embedded" challenger. While it holds vast dollar reserves and US debt like Japan, its industrial base is stronger and more diversified than the Soviet Union's. Surviving the initial 2018 trade war phase, the conflict has evolved into a "tech-financial war." The core battlefield is now the stock market. US tech stocks (AI, semiconductors) are treated as sovereign assets, buoyed by bipartisan national will. China is pushing to strengthen its own financial markets to convert industrial strength into financial power and fund its tech ambitions. Companies like ChangXin (semiconductors), Moonshot AI, and DJI compete not just for market share but as financial proxies for their respective systems. The new paradigm is moving from globally efficient monopolies (Apple, Google) towards companies that achieve monopolistic profits within their respective geopolitical spheres. This competition over "pricing power" and financial valuation in segmented markets defines the current era, making the stock market the primary arena for this tech-centric struggle.

marsbitDün 10:37

The New Cold War is a Tech Stock War

marsbitDün 10:37

Low Probability, High Impact: Citi Issues Nine Extreme Risk Warnings for Commodities in H2 2026

Citigroup Global Research has released a commodity tail risk report focusing on low-probability, high-impact scenarios for late 2026. The report argues that traditional supply-demand frameworks are now regularly disrupted by geopolitical, climate, and technological shocks. Nine key "wildcard" risks are identified: 1. **U.S.-Iran conflict** escalating to a persistent, multi-year disruption of Gulf oil production, potentially pushing crude above $150/bbl and retail gasoline above $6/gallon. 2. **Russia-Ukraine war escalation** triggering new restrictions on Russian energy exports, particularly impacting global natural gas and refined products markets more than crude oil. 3. **Aggressive stockpiling of critical minerals**, such as copper, potentially driving prices above $20,000/ton. 4. **Gold prices** potentially falling another 15-20% in the near term before potentially doubling to around $6,000/oz in the longer term. 5. **A record-strength El Niño** severely disrupting agricultural supplies, possibly pushing cocoa back above $10,000/ton. 6. **AI boom or bust** creating a two-way risk: a boom would boost demand for power-related commodities (electricity, gas, uranium, copper, aluminum), while a bust could cause a deflationary demand shock, though gold could benefit in either scenario. 7. **Renewed U.S.-China trade war** impacting American farm exports, potentially pushing corn below $4.20/bushel and soybeans below $10/bushel. 8. **Finalization of the Russia-China "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline** deal, which would drastically reduce China's LNG import needs post-2030, exacerbating a looming global LNG glut and pressuring prices towards $5-6/MMBtu. 9. **An extreme "Monroe Doctrine" scenario** where the U.S. blocks all oil exports from the Americas, causing a severe benchmark dislocation (high global prices like Brent above $100/bbl, but a steep discount for trapped American crude). The report advises investors to stress-test portfolios against these poorly priced extreme scenarios, as "once-in-a-decade" shocks have become more frequent.

marsbit07/29 06:52

Low Probability, High Impact: Citi Issues Nine Extreme Risk Warnings for Commodities in H2 2026

marsbit07/29 06:52

Plunging 10% Then Surging: Weekend Crude Oil Market Watch

Following a 10% plunge, oil prices surged over the weekend as geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz escalated dramatically. The initial market optimism, driven by the strait’s brief reopening on Friday, quickly reversed on Saturday when Iran reinstated restrictions and fired on vessels, halting nearly all traffic. In response, oil contracts rose approximately 4.52%, while S&P futures fell nearly 0.8%. U.S. President Trump alternated between diplomatic gestures—sending an envoy for talks—and threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure if no deal was reached. Iran rejected further negotiations, fearing a U.S. attack before the midweek ceasefire deadline. This triggered another spike in oil, surpassing Saturday’s highs, and further pressured equity markets. Crypto-related stocks underperformed significantly. Market optimism is expected to be punished, and the week ahead hinges on whether Iran maintains its refusal to negotiate.

marsbit04/20 11:07

Plunging 10% Then Surging: Weekend Crude Oil Market Watch

marsbit04/20 11:07

A Hidden Financial War? Iran Collects Strait Passage Fees with Stablecoins

Iran has officially institutionalized a mandatory toll system for all large tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting dollar-denominated payments. Instead, fees must be paid either via yuan-denominated wire transfers or in USD-pegged stablecoins via decentralized networks. The move is designed to bypass U.S. financial sanctions and traditional banking channels like SWIFT system. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is implementing a tiered pricing model based on geopolitical alignment: allies like China and Russia pay the lowest rates, while U.S. allies and Israel are barred entirely. Vessels must display approved flags and are escorted through the strait after payment. This marks the first time a nation has integrated cryptocurrency into strategic-level payment infrastructure at commercial scale. The mechanism could channel over $20 billion annually in stablecoins through Iranian-controlled wallets, creating a grey liquidity pool shielded by sovereign power. However, risks remain. Compliance with sanctions from the EU and UK may void insurance coverage for vessels paying the IRGC, forcing shipowners to choose between longer routes or potential financial penalties. Russia is considering a similar model for the Northern Sea Route, signaling a broader shift toward using geographic chokepoints as financial leverage in a reordered global trade system.

marsbit04/07 03:51

A Hidden Financial War? Iran Collects Strait Passage Fees with Stablecoins

marsbit04/07 03:51

Supreme Court 'Hits the Brakes', Trump 'Hits the Gas': Tariff Battle Reignites!

The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on February 20 that the Trump administration lacked legal authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs. In response, former President Trump announced a new 10% global tariff using alternative legal authority, aiming to maintain similar tariff levels. The court’s decision challenges the legal foundation of Trump’s tariff framework and may lead to large-scale refunds and further legal battles. Market reactions were initially positive but tempered as policy uncertainty persisted. The ruling highlights ongoing tensions between presidential power and trade policy, with economic and political implications for U.S. trade strategy and revenue policy.

比推02/21 00:27

Supreme Court 'Hits the Brakes', Trump 'Hits the Gas': Tariff Battle Reignites!

比推02/21 00:27

Bitcoin’s latest price dip is not a full bear market signal… yet – Here’s why

Bitcoin's recent price decline to around $87,263 reflects short-term market fear and a lack of sustained buyer demand, but it does not yet signal a full transition to a bear market. Key on-chain metrics suggest a potential local bottom is forming. The supply in profit remains at 71%, below the 75% threshold needed to indicate strong holder conviction. The MVRV Z-score of 1.12 shows moderate bullish sentiment without triggering mass sell-offs, while the SOPR staying below 1 points to investor fatigue and soft capitulation. Macroeconomic developments in coming months could influence this outlook, but current data does not confirm a bear market.

ambcrypto01/23 21:02

Bitcoin’s latest price dip is not a full bear market signal… yet – Here’s why

ambcrypto01/23 21:02

Bitcoin slides below $88k as EU freezes US trade talks over Greenland tensions

Bitcoin fell below $88,000 on January 21, extending a multi-week decline amid growing geopolitical and trade tensions between the European Union and the United States. The European Parliament suspended work on the EU-US "Turnberry" trade deal due to concerns over threats to Denmark and Greenland's sovereignty and the use of tariffs as a policy tool. Bitcoin's technical structure shows persistent weakness with lower highs since October, rising selling pressure, and shallow rebounds. The broader risk-off sentiment, fueled by macro uncertainty and trade tensions, continues to weigh on risk assets like Bitcoin, leaving it vulnerable to further downside.

ambcrypto01/21 17:59

Bitcoin slides below $88k as EU freezes US trade talks over Greenland tensions

ambcrypto01/21 17:59

The Most Crowded Short in History Is Paving the Way for a Bull Market in U.S. Bonds

An experienced macro trader presents a contrarian thesis that 2026 will be the "year of the bond," with long-duration U.S. Treasuries (TLT/TMF) poised to outperform stocks. The core argument is built on several pillars: gold's 200% rally historically signals deflationary risk, not sustained inflation; the U.S. faces a crushing $1.2 trillion annual interest bill, creating a fiscal doom loop; Treasury issuance is dangerously short-term, amplifying refinancing risk; and long bond short interest is at extreme, crowded levels. Additional factors include cooling inflation, weak economic indicators, deflationary trade war risks, and the high probability of Fed intervention (QE/Yield Curve Control) to lower long-term yields if stress emerges. The trade offers asymmetric upside: TLT yields ~4.5% while waiting, and a 200bps drop in yields could trigger a 35-45%+ price surge, accelerated by a short squeeze. The author has allocated 60% of their portfolio to this thesis, betting on a policy and macro regime shift.

marsbit01/20 06:46

The Most Crowded Short in History Is Paving the Way for a Bull Market in U.S. Bonds

marsbit01/20 06:46

Evaluating the $8 trillion risk – Why Bitcoin price is no longer a ‘safe haven’

Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, briefly nearing $92,000, following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on eight European countries. The initial 10% tariff, set for February 1, could rise to 25% by June if negotiations fail. Trump administration explicitly linked the tariffs to the potential purchase of Greenland. With U.S. markets closed for a holiday, global markets absorbed the shock: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell, Asian and European indices dipped, and the dollar weakened against safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc. Gold and silver surged to record highs, while oil prices dropped on growth concerns. Bitcoin later recovered some losses due to bargain buying. The situation remains tense as European investors hold approximately $8 trillion in U.S. assets, and any capital flow shifts could significantly impact markets. Key events to watch include economic data from China, Bank of Japan policy decisions, U.S. economic indicators influencing the Fed, and geopolitical discussions at the upcoming Davos meeting.

ambcrypto01/19 23:01

Evaluating the $8 trillion risk – Why Bitcoin price is no longer a ‘safe haven’

ambcrypto01/19 23:01

活动图片

Project Updatesright-arrow

Regulatory Policyright-arrow