Based on prediction market data from Polymarket, the probability of the United States establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the end of 2025 has plummeted by 98%, falling to just 1% from a peak of 77% in March. This sharp decline follows former President Donald Trump's campaign promise and subsequent executive order to create a national Bitcoin reserve, which initially fueled market optimism.

The market for this event, titled "US National Bitcoin Reserve by 2025?", launched in January with an initial probability of 41%. Optimism surged to 77% after Trump signed the order and Congress began working to codify it into law. However, the failure to conduct a mandated audit of federal crypto holdings by an April 5th deadline, a crucial step for forming the reserve, has caused confidence to collapse.

By December 8th, the tokenized "Yes" bet for the reserve's creation in 2025 was trading at just $0.01, representing a 1% probability and a total market volume of $5.15 million. A parallel market for the creation of a reserve by 2027 has also been launched but sees minimal activity. This event has been one of the largest on Polymarket, a leading crypto prediction platform whose data is increasingly cited by major news outlets like Bloomberg.

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<span>The probability of Donald Trump's pre-election promise to create a national bitcoin reserve by the end of the year is considered minimal by market participants</span>
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<p><em>"RBC-Crypto" does not provide investment advice, the material is published for informational purposes only. Cryptocurrency is a volatile asset that can lead to financial losses.</em></p>

<p>Bets on Polymarket for the appearance of a strategic U.S. crypto reserve in 2025 have fallen by 98% from their maximum. In March, after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a national bitcoin reserve, the probability of this event reached 77%, but today it has dropped to 1%.</p>

<p>The creation of a crypto reserve in the U.S. was one of Trump's pre-election promises, and market participants' attention was focused on it throughout the year. At the time of the creation of the prediction market "National Bitcoin Reserve in the U.S. in 2025?" in January, the probability of this event was estimated by traders at 41%.</p>




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<p><strong>Prediction markets</strong> in cryptocurrencies are platforms where people can bet on the outcome of future events using cryptocurrency. By buying a binary answer "yes" or "no," participants determine the market's assessment of the probability of an event occurring. For example, a "yes" token price of $0.20 with a "no" token at $0.80 corresponds to a 20% probability.</p>
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<p>In March, after Trump signed the order and the U.S. Congress gathered to enshrine this order into law, optimism among Polymarket users grew to a maximum. According to their estimates, the chance of creating a reserve that year was then about 77%. That is, the tokenized "yes" bet could be bought or sold for $0.77 in cryptocurrency.</p>






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<p>On April 5, an audit of federal agencies' cryptoassets, which were supposed to form the basis of the reserve, was scheduled in the U.S. In early fall, it became known that the audit had not yet been conducted.</p>






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<p>By December 8, the volume of bets on the forecast for the crypto reserve reached $5.15 million. The chances of its creation this year are now estimated at 1% — the "yes" token costs only $0.01. It has fallen by 98% from its March maximum. A month ago, parallel bets "U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve by 2027?" were launched, but the volumes of this market are still minimal.</p>

<p>The success of Polymarket — the largest prediction platform by betting volume — in 2025 led to the emergence of many similar services. This market recorded an absolute maximum in transaction volume of $8.3 billion in November. The flagships of the market are already penetrating the information field: Kalshi data will be used by CNN, and Polymarket information is broadcast on Bloomberg.</p>

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