Oscars Preview: Who Are the Big Players in Prediction Markets Betting On?

Odaily星球日报2026-03-12 tarihinde yayınlandı2026-03-12 tarihinde güncellendi

Özet

"Oscar Predictions 2026: Where Are the Prediction Market Whales Placing Their Bets?" As the 98th Academy Awards approach on March 15, 2026, the crypto prediction market Polymarket is offering its own forecasts on the winners, with significant trading volume indicating where large bettors, or "whales," are placing their capital. In the high-stakes Best Picture category, "One Battle After Another" is the current frontrunner with a 76% probability, followed by "Sinners" at 20%. Analysis of top wallets shows one address holds a substantial "YES" position on this outcome with an 89.7% win rate. The Best Actor race has seen a major shift; Timothée Chalamet was previously the favorite with an 80% probability, but Michael B. Jordan has now surged ahead to a 57% chance. Notably, the top wallet betting "YES" on Jordan has a negative historical profit, while a major "NO" bettor on Chalamet has profited over $2.82 million. Several categories appear to be near-certain "sure bets" or "savings plans." Paul Thomas Anderson is the overwhelming favorite for Best Director with a 91% probability. For Best Actress, Jessie Buckley leads with a 97% chance. "Sinners" also dominates Best Original Screenplay with a 96% probability. Other closely watched categories include Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan leads at 52%, and Best Supporting Actor, where Sean Penn is the favorite at 73%. "One Battle After Another" also leads in Best Cinematography with a 73% probability.

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Asher (@Asher_ 0210)

The 98th Academy Awards ceremony will be held on March 15, 2026. As the awards night approaches, discussions about "who will win" are heating up rapidly.

Beyond predictions from traditional media, film critics, and fans, crypto prediction markets are also providing their own set of answers. So, in the eyes of prediction market participants, who is most likely to take home the major awards at this year's Oscars?

Next, Odaily Planet Daily will梳理 (sort through) the winning probability situations for each award based on the latest market data from Polymarket. At the same time, we will analyze the betting situations of the top addresses holding positions in related events to find potential trading opportunities.

Best Picture Award: "One Battle After Another" Temporarily Ranks First with a 76% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner, trading volume over $29 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-picture-winner.

Currently, for the Best Picture award, "One Battle After Another" temporarily ranks first with a 75% real-time probability, while "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.

Address Holdings Analysis

Top "YES" Holder for 《One Battle After Another》: Address: 0x2a019dc0089ea8c6edbbafc8a7cc9ba77b4b6397. This address has a high win rate of 89.7%. The average purchase price for the "YES" shares on 《One Battle After Another》 was 54.8 cents.

Address Holding Only the Single Event "One Battle After Another": Address: 0x8f49c70ce8e353c0531d39f5448f0ba5f561bf8d. This address bought nearly 10,000 "YES" shares at an average price of 74 cents 5 days ago. It currently holds only the single event bet for "One Battle After Another" winning Best Picture.

Best Actor Award: Michael B. Jordan Temporarily Ranks First with a 57% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actor Winner, trading volume nearly $7 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actor-winner.

Currently, for the Best Actor award, Michael B. Jordan temporarily ranks first with a 57% real-time probability, while Timothée Chalamet ranks second with a probability of 34%.

It is worth mentioning that before the 7th of this month, Timothée Chalamet's probability had consistently been in first place, once reaching as high as 80%.

Address Holdings Analysis

Top "YES" Holder for Michael B. Jordan: Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271. This address has a win rate of only 48%, with a historical profit/loss of negative $200,000.

Top "NO" Holder for Michael B. Jordan: Address: 0xafbacaeeda63f31202759eff7f8126e49adfe61b. This address has a win rate of 53%, with a historical profit/loss of $172,000.

Top "YES" Holder for Timothée Chalamet: Address: 0x4cc25002e1b5d09c1dab0d26dbe2333648829271, which is also the top "YES" holder for Michael B. Jordan. This shows the address is betting that either Michael B. Jordan or Timothée Chalamet will win the Best Actor award.

Top "NO" Holder for Timothée Chalamet: Address: 0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344. This address has a high win rate of 63%, with a historical profit/loss of $2.82 million.

Best Director Award: Paul Thomas Anderson Temporarily Ranks First with a 91% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner, trading volume nearly $5 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-director-winner.

Currently, for the Best Director award, Paul Thomas Anderson temporarily ranks first with a 94% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.

Address Holdings Analysis

Top "YES" Holder for Paul Thomas Anderson: Address: 0x998154d8eb4ba7c4b34b10d76b9742d922d7dec4. This address has a high win rate of 83.6%. The average purchase price for the "YES" shares on Paul Thomas Anderson was 93 cents.

Best Actress Award: Jessie Buckley Temporarily Ranks First with a 97% Real-Time Probability

Polymarket Corresponding Event: Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner, trading volume over $1.5 million;

Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-actress-winner.

Currently, for the Best Actress award, Jessie Buckley temporarily ranks first with a 97% real-time probability. Judging by the probability, this award also seems almost certain, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.

Other Popular Awards

Additionally, awards with high discussion heat include:

一、Best Supporting Actress Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actress-winner), Amy Madigan temporarily ranks first with a 52% real-time probability; Teyana Taylor ranks second with a probability of 26%; Wunmi Mosaku ranks third with a probability of 21%.

二、Best Supporting Actor Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-supporting-actor-winner), Sean Penn temporarily ranks first with a 73% real-time probability; Stellan Skarsgård ranks second with a probability of 19%; Delroy Lindo ranks third with a probability of 7%.

三、Best Cinematography Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-cinematography-winner), "One Battle After Another" temporarily ranks first with a 73% real-time probability; "Sinners" ranks second with a probability of 20%.

四、Best Original Screenplay Award (Link: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2026-best-original-screenplay-winner), "Sinners" temporarily ranks first with a 96% real-time probability, potentially a "sure bet" or "savings account" scenario.

İlgili Sorular

QAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, which film is currently the frontrunner to win the Best Picture award at the 2026 Oscars and what is its probability?

AAccording to the Polymarket prediction data, 'One Battle After Another' is the current frontrunner to win the Best Picture award with a real-time probability of 76%.

QWhich actor is currently favored to win the Best Actor award, and what significant shift in the odds is mentioned?

AMichael B. Jordan is currently favored to win the Best Actor award with a 57% probability. A significant shift mentioned is that before the 7th of the month, Timothée Chalamet was the frontrunner with a probability that was once as high as 80%.

QWhich two categories are described as having outcomes with almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets' or 'savings plans'?

AThe Best Director award, where Paul Thomas Anderson has a 94% probability, and the Best Actress award, where Jessie Buckley has a 97% probability, are described as having almost no suspense and being potential 'sure bets'.

QWhat is the trading volume for the Polymarket event predicting the Best Picture winner?

AThe trading volume for the Polymarket event 'Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner' is over $29 million.

QFor the Best Supporting Actor award, who are the top three contenders and their respective probabilities?

AFor the Best Supporting Actor award, the top three contenders are Sean Penn in first place with a 73% probability, Stellan Skarsgård in second with 19%, and Delroy Lindo in third with 7%.

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