Only a 50% Chance of Passing This Year, Can the CLARITY Bill Succeed Before the Midterm Elections?
The CLARITY Act, which passed the U.S. House in July 2025 with strong bipartisan support (294-134), faces a critical juncture in the Senate. The Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold a markup soon, but key issues remain unresolved, including stablecoin yield provisions, DeFi regulations, and securing full Republican committee support. Additional challenges involve the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), ethics amendments for government officials, and SEC-related concerns.
Galaxy estimates only a 50% chance of the bill becoming law in 2026. The tight legislative calendar, competing priorities like Iran military authorization and DHS appropriations, and the impending midterm elections create significant time pressure. If the bill is not passed before the new Congress convenes in 2027, comprehensive crypto market structure legislation could be delayed until 2030 or later, especially if leadership changes result in less favorable committee chairs.
The act provides crucial regulatory clarity by defining the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, establishing a path for decentralized networks to be classified as non-securities, and bringing digital commodity intermediaries under federal regulation. The outcome of ongoing Senate negotiations, particularly the release of revised text on stablecoin yields, will be a key indicator of its future prospects.
Odaily星球日报04/23 09:01
