I had thought that after the attack at Bondi Beach, Sydney's New Year's fireworks might be more subdued this year, but from what I saw on social media, people still gathered to watch the fireworks display as usual, still counted down, and still cheered. If even Sydney is this carefree, other places are self-explanatory. Sure enough, I later saw people around the world welcoming the arrival of the 2026 New Year in different ways. It shows that despite the popular saying "every year after 2019 is worse than the last," whether out of custom or hope, people still wish for a fresh start in the new year and seek a good beginning.
The world really didn't have a great time in 2025. No matter what, let it pass quickly.
The world is moving from a small era to a grand era. The small era was calm, sweetly平庸, soft and light, with established rules where people pursued庸俗的幸福, with short-sightedness, shallow thoughts,意志苟且, and frivolous behavior. The grand era, on the other hand, is turbulent, unpredictable, hard and heavy, with rules rewritten at any time, boundaries忽明忽暗, heroes rising, intense conflicts, survival of the fittest,涌现出一大批目光远大、思想深刻、品格坚毅的豪杰, but at the cost of ordinary people's狼奔豕突,惶恐焦虑, and the sinking of certainty.
Whenever such an era shifts, people always hesitate for a while, during which they inevitably harbor various illusions. Is the situation really like this? Is it really irreversible? Is there some heaven-sent genius who can reverse all contradictions and conflicts, and then we can all have yesterday once more? Psychologist Elizabeth Kubler-Ross summarized the psychological process people go through when facing pain into five stages: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. In the first three stages, people refuse to truly accept reality in their hearts, all hoping for the world to roll back.
World War I was like this, which is why countries slid into the August guns with将信将疑. World War II was also like this, which is why Chamberlain repeatedly appeased Hitler. The Cold War was the same, which is why Truman made a series of幼稚判断 regarding Eastern Europe, Greece, India, and East Asia, digging a坑 for the civilized world that couldn't be filled for centuries. People need a series of signals to反复确认 before reluctantly entering the grand era.
I think the significance of 2025 is confirmation. This year didn't really see any earth-shattering major events, but after this year, everyone确认 that the world has entered a new stage. Even the most迟钝、最嘴硬的人 no longer deny this point, no longer幻想可以回到“大调和时代”了.
"The Great Reconciliation Era" is what Western historians call the small era that just passed. There is still debate about the start and end of this era, but the普遍的意见 is that it began in the mid-1980s, when China reformed and opened up and the Soviet Union pursued "new thinking," and ended at the end of 2019. These more than thirty years were a golden age in human history, with基本和平, rapid technological development, generally consistent ideas, economic globalization, the internet, and Hollywood movies connecting the world. People focused on economic development and personal struggle, cooperated with each other with胸无芥蒂 to make money, rarely纠结于意识形态的争论, and even less likely to view each other as寇仇 under political propaganda. Those born between 1980 and 2010 would think that this world was always like this and should be like this, but they have or will soon realize that such an era may be as scarce as the "prosperous ages" in Chinese history. The "60s," "70s," and their living elders will have the fortune to experience two Cold Wars in their lifetime. I am from the 70s. If this Cold War also lasts forty years like the last one, then unless longevity technology really makes a breakthrough and actually becomes popular, most of my peers probably won't see the arrival of the next era, and can only "recall the开元全盛日,小邑犹藏万家室" for the rest of their lives.
Now, we are undoubtedly in an era of torrents. The old order is ending, and the new order has not yet been established. Various large and small trends come fast and fierce, but the direction is still unclear. Worse yet, although the direction forward is uncertain, there are four forces that are deterministically pulling us to the bottom of the river.
First is great power competition.
Sino-US competition is already the overarching macro framework that笼罩一切, becoming the "background color" of this era. Now, when you consider anything, you need to first face this issue. In the past, the world was one family; the more open you were, the more opportunities you had; the more international you were, the wider your path. You could take American venture capital, target the Chinese market, get an American degree, enter state-owned enterprises, and use money earned in China to invest in US stocks. But now the situation is completely different; you must make a choice. Different choices mean completely different external assumptions and path planning,意味着完全不同的代价、风险和机会成本. Once you choose a path, you close other doors; don't have the idea of "左右逢源" or "两头占便宜." Think clearly about the boundaries and consequences of your actions to avoid touching red lines and causing颠覆性的后果.
Second is information warfare.
In a sense, this is a direct consequence of great power competition.
In the previous Great Reconciliation Era, people often compared China and the US to a marriage relationship. This metaphor might not have been entirely appropriate at the time, but now the states of both sides are really like a couple who have just divorced, their lives in chaos but their words full of bluster. The economic fundamentals are狼狈不堪 on both sides, so both are working on narratives. Look at the bright spots in each economy; they are all built on narratives, and even statistical data is no longer reliable.
Once narrative becomes a means of competition, whether through舆论引导 or民间情绪积累, it will inevitably丝滑演变为舆论战. Its标志 is the emergence of a large number of new internet celebrities who make a living from舆论诈骗, forming an industrialized舆论诈骗 content industry chain. The West has various conspiracy theories, the East has various伪史论. The result is that although everyone lives in the same time and space, they have completely different historical narratives and现实图景 in their minds.
Some people feel indignant about this, fiercely criticize such phenomena, and place hope in them having a conscience发现、改邪归正. But I must say, information warfare is an unavoidable常态 in an era of competition. Currently, it is only in its初级阶段; in the future, it will be more intense, more abstract, more分裂, more bizarre and unreasonable. No one can do anything about this. All you can do is try your best to avoid becoming a victim of information warfare, prevent yourself from becoming a傻逼 filled with戾气与偏见, and prevent being dragged into the abyss by such傻逼.
Third is short-form video.
So far, short-form video is the most irresponsible invention of the 21st century for humanity. Even after the emergence of AGI, it is a strong contender for this crown. I'm not talking about its core role in information warfare and the舆论诈骗 industry chain here, but simply its destructive effect on individual and group brain function. Now, if you are willing to do a little search or AI research, you will find that many mainstream brain research institutions have confirmed that short-form video addiction is very similar to the damaging effects of drugs on the brain, both functionally and structurally. Long-term addiction to short-form videos can lead to the hijacking of the ventral striatum (responsible for reward), a decrease in gray matter density in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (responsible for attention), and进而引发 the atrophy of the prefrontal cortex (responsible for rational decision-making and self-control).
This means that short-form video is like feeding drugs to the brain, and the result is damage to brain function, even organic病变. "Brainrot" was the 2024 Oxford Dictionary Word of the Year. Its original meaning refers to the phenomenon of long-term immersion in algorithm-driven, low-quality, fragmented content leading to brain dysfunction, loss of deep thinking ability, and structural degradation of cognitive function. But I prefer to use this term to describe an object: a brain捣碎的 like碎豆腐 by short-form videos.
Based on my own observation and personal experience, short-form video addiction's damage to a person's intelligence, rationality, and willpower is decisive. Once addicted to short-form videos, that person is basically废了.
Fourth is AI.
The impact of AI on professions and employment is now a hot topic, and there are already many brilliant discussions. I只想补充三个点.
First, the change AI brings to the human welfare curve is first downward, then upward. That is, AI's impact on most people's employment and income comes before the widespread economic growth and social welfare it brings. Only survivors will have the opportunity to enjoy the benefits brought by AI.
Second, many people think that by diligently learning AI skills and becoming an AI expert, they can gain an advantage in the AI revolution, even achieve a counterattack. This is mostly an illusion, essentially a疏解恐慌和焦虑的徒劳. Not to mention the vision of众生平等 under AGI, just judging by the current progress speed and industry concentration of AI, most AI experts actually can't拉开多大差距 from ordinary users. Moreover, "revolutions最喜欢吞噬自己的儿女"; a pure AI expert might be the earliest牺牲品 under the rolling wheels of AI.
Finally, I put AI last among the four forces because given the state and ability of the vast majority of people, they will already capsize under the drag of the first three forces,根本轮不到 AI 出刀.
Among the four challenges, the first and fourth belong to the structural changes of the era; the second and third are more like your internal防线被渗透. The external environment is deteriorating, and the internal system is退化. This is the challenge we face.
Text published at the New Year照例是要留下希望的. Although I believe that包括我在内,绝大多数人逃不过这四刀, we can still理性地分析一下对策. But unfortunately, as I said, everyone is now in their own湍流, with different situations and conditions, so it is difficult to reach any普遍共识; it's almost一人一孤舟. All we can do is form our own judgments as much as possible, master key skills, steer our own small boat, first ensure that the boat does not capsize, and then seek opportunities to扬帆破浪.
The New Year is a good time for reflection and restarting. Below are nine countermeasures I have made based on my own situation, which can also be said to be self-criticism and self-expectation. I hope they can be a reference for you.
First, calmly认识真实的自己,不再被“我想如何”而左右,而是用客观的指标实事求是地定位自己的长处和短处. In the grand era, your wishful preferences are not important; the key is what you are actually good at doing. An effective method is to review what you have repeatedly succeeded in doing主要依靠自己 (not the platform) over the past few years, and what you have repeatedly failed at. This may be your true comparative advantages and disadvantages. Setting goals must be based on this.
Second, form the habit of second-level thinking, i.e., not only能够进行高质量的思考, but also能够主动审视和批判自己的思考质量. Second-level thinking is a meta-ability repeatedly emphasized by investment expert Howard Marks. Most people's thinking is one-dimensional, with only one voice in their mind, called "I think." Second-level thinking requires splitting off an "I" to stand aside and冷静地观察和审视 the "I" that is thinking, asking尖锐发问: Why do you think that? What person or opinion or personal experience is influencing your judgment? Do you have evidence? What variables have you ignored? If you are wrong, where are you most likely wrong? Second-level thinking is a powerful tool and a superior quality.
Third, always think about the purpose first, prioritize, put first things first. One particularly important second-level thinking habit is to审视事情本身的意义、价值. Because of my work, I can接触到很多白手起家的成功人士. I found that the most肉眼可见的差别 between them and ordinary people is their极强的目的感; they always ask why before doing anything, and they非常重视对任务的优先级进行排序, deleting things that can be left undone. Many people rely on assistants to strictly manage their time and energy, but more rely on自律. I even have a猜想 that, under similar other conditions, this thinking habit may be the most important single factor determining the difference between people.
Fourth,寻找适合自己的小环境,尽可能肉身进入到这个小环境中,尽可能找到更多的共识者和合作者,尽可能获取信息不对称的优势. Don't迷信你自己的意志力和能力,也不要相信互联网时代哪里都一样的神话. Whatever you do, you must go to the central geographical area of that thing,吃透信息差红利. Information asymmetry is the biggest factor determining your achievement.
Fifth, be as vigilant against information warfare as you are against telecom fraud. I remember before telecom fraud era, when people received a陌生电话, they缺省地会认为对方身份是真实的,讲的事情也是真实的. Later, with电诈横行, people's attitude towards phone calls and information completely逆转. For information that cannot be confirmed, people缺省地认为是诈骗. As information warfare不断升级, we may soon need to repeat this process. That is,面对媒体上任何未经交叉确认的信息,任何具有蛊惑性的观点, first assume it is information warfare, and then look for evidence to confirm it. In this case,寻找并且锁定可靠的信息源 becomes an extremely important efficiency tool.
Sixth, through conscious physical exercise and behavior adjustment,戒除短视频上瘾,对抗脑腐,恢复大脑功能. From my own experience,戒除短视频上瘾 is not just a matter of认识问题, but mainly a能力问题, even a体质问题. It requires a series of身体条件和行为模式的调整和配合. For me,一定强度的体育锻炼,有计划的断食、冥想,长时间阅读大部头著作并手写读书笔记, these exercises can help me quickly摆脱短视频沉迷. And setting video App usage time limits, prohibiting listening to audio while doing slow thinking, only reading books before bed and not looking at the phone, especially not bringing the phone into the bedroom, must be followed as iron laws.
Seventh, shift from the consumption side to the supply side,持续输出内容. Although I deeply despise short-form videos, I很清楚 that short-form video is an不可阻挡的趋势. No matter how you oppose it, the vast majority of people will inevitably become the cost. In that case, we can only consider how to自救, even consider how to攻守易势, turn the blade of short-form video outward, others as鱼肉, us as刀俎. I think the way is simple: create content. If you only watch and don't write, your brain will be filled with fragments, getting messier and messier. But as long as you force yourself to write a page of notes, make a picture, record a voice, or even make a short video to explain a problem clearly, that sense of掌控感 will return a bit. As long as you持续内容创作, the brain will gradually恢复复利机制. In a sense, short-form video divides humans into掠食者和猎物. We can't change this rule; the only thing we can do is transform from prey into掠食者.
Eighth, hone AI skills anchored on delivering results, not on art. Now many people turn AI learning into an art competition. They炫耀他们使用 AI 制作出来的内容 on social media, comparing the精致度、逼真度和新奇性 of the content. I believe AI art will definitely become a very important branch in the future, but for most people, this may be a歧路. This reminds me of my early years learning programming, when I often liked to炫耀代码技巧 on forums, comparing whose code was more elegant, who had a deeper understanding of a certain language技巧. This was turning programming into art. This is not meaningless, and should be the taste that every aspiring programmer should have, but we still have to recognize that the fundamental goal of software development is to construct useful software. Similarly, the purpose of learning AI today is to deliver优质结果, not artistic creation. These days, a Kenyan "AI论文代写枪手" is popular on the internet. His way of using AI is迥然不同 from others; he doesn't use AI to directly output text, but uses AI to assist himself in understanding the theme, learning relevant materials, and then manually writing the paper. According to many people's evaluation standards for AI capabilities, his AI skills may not be the strongest, but the quality of the results he submits is the best, and he has become a佼佼者 among the众多“枪手”, living in a seaside mansion. In my opinion, his AI application skills are higher than those "AI experts" who are obsessed with fine-tuning prompts and using AI to automatically generate text. Aiming to deliver the best results is the right way to improve AI application skills.
Ninth, learn and practice on-chain value investment. Recently I contacted some people in the AI and robotics industry and found that after the media's long-term negative reporting and even stigmatization, people outside the blockchain industry have completely扭曲认知 of this technology and industry, even for things with global impact, they are茫然无知或充满偏见. This is actually a major information asymmetry and also contains huge opportunities. In fact, the US "Market Structure Bill" is very likely to pass in the first quarter of 2026. Within a few years, the scale of on-chain RWA assets may soar from hundreds of billions of dollars directly to tens of trillions of dollars. In this competitive era of以邻为壑, blockchain continues the narrative of financial globalization, becoming an economic绿洲. People will be able to buy various assets on the blockchain. This change will also make blockchain shift from the current speculative market to a value investment platform. Traditional financial investment logic, investment tools, and service systems will be quickly established on the chain. "Accessibility" will no longer be an issue; cognition and investment skills become the key constraints. This is one of the few opportunities in this era that can be grasped by ordinary people.
