Arthur Hayes Deep Dive: Why Did Bitcoin Underperform Gold and the Nasdaq in 2025?
Arthur Hayes argues that Bitcoin's underperformance against gold and the Nasdaq in 2025 was not a failure but an expected outcome driven by distinct market dynamics. He posits that Bitcoin's price is directly tied to US dollar liquidity, which contracted during the year. In contrast, gold's surge was fueled by price-insensitive central banks aggressively buying it to de-risk from US Treasury holdings, fearing asset freezes like the one imposed on Russia. The Nasdaq's resilience, despite lower liquidity, is attributed to the "nationalization" of AI by the US government under Trump, where state-directed capital flows into strategic tech sectors irrespective of market signals. Hayes predicts a reversal in 2026, forecasting a significant expansion of dollar liquidity through Fed balance sheet growth, increased bank lending to strategic industries, and government interventions in the housing market. This, he believes, will propel Bitcoin's price upward. His trading strategy involves leveraged Bitcoin exposure through stocks like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet.
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